I think Dusty might actually play him, but realistically how much would he improve the team? OF is not where this team needs improvement. Alvarez, Meyers, McCormick, and Tucker are the 4 best hitters on this team, by OPS this month.
If Gilbert is truly really really good and you think he’s a keeper maybe the play is to trade them all away. Chas and Abreu to someone for nothing Jin return- the argument is Chas is worth 70M in the open market- you have him for 3.5 more years- he’s worth Abreu’s contract- as an upside maybe you can fix Abreu and get something positive out of him. If you can’t just cut him. Trade Meyers for a bat at 1B. Jake Meyers for JD Davis. Meyers has more WAR and more upside. Davis is a better hitter and plays first base. Your new lineup: Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez/Tucker/Davis/Peña/Gilbert/Diaz or Dubon/Maldy or Diaz. Diaz plays every day- usually at DH but catches 2X a week. Dubon spells someone else on the diamond on the days Diaz catches. your new payroll is 90M. The only truly weak spot you have in the batting order is maldy on days he catches and we know. I body gives a **** about that. That would be super aggressive but I you really believe that strongly in Gilbert that’s the kind of thing you could do that would fix the entire organization. He’s that important to our overall long term health imo.
If Gilbert is truly really really good and you think he’s a keeper maybe the play is to trade them all away. Chas and Abreu to someone for nothing Jin return- the argument is Chas is worth 70M in the open market- you have him for 3.5 more years- he’s worth Abreu’s contract- as an upside maybe you can fix Abreu and get something positive out of him. If you can’t just cut him. Trade Meyers for a bat at 1B. Jake Meyers for JD Davis. Meyers has more WAR and more upside. Davis is a better hitter and plays first base. Your new lineup: Altuve/Bregman/Alvarez/Tucker/Davis/Peña/Gilbert/Diaz or Dubon/Maldy or Diaz. Diaz plays every day- usually at DH but catches 2X a week. Dubon spells someone else on the diamond on the days Diaz catches. your new payroll is 90M for position players. This even leaves room for a big ztucker extension. The only truly weak spot you have in the batting order is Maldy on days he catches and we know. I body gives a **** about that. That would be super aggressive but if you really believe that strongly in Gilbert that’s the kind of thing you could do that would fix the entire organization. He’s that important to our overall long term health imo.
Can someone more knowledgeable of the system answer a question? Please and thank you. How can a high pick like Whitaker have a very low K rate and still not hit for any power at all? I was looking at K rates among top prospects and his stood out. 13.5 K rate this month but OPS under .500
He hit for a ton of power but with crazy K's the first month. He's probably overcorrected and is struggling to find the proper balance.
I don't know anything about Pedro Leon's mental makeup or personality. But he took a step forward in K rate last year that encouraged me. This year he is worse than ever. Is there still any hope? Has he put too much pressure on himself and folding because of Gilbert, Melton, Barber, and others having success passing him up?
If thats the case it make be a positive and we should see if the can split the difference thecrest of the season.
Leon's stock is dropping. He is 161 pa into this season and his issues are the exact same as they've been thru his pro career and now he's hitting for less power than ever. Someone with his physical tools will always have hope for a breakout but the odds of him reaching that ceiling are plummeting. I still think he will end up playing in the majors for a sustained period of time but it will be in spite of his bat. A 70 arm, plus speed, some pop, and defensive versatility can get a guy a few years in the big leagues (especially on a rebuilding team), but a 32% k rate in AAA projects to him being unplayable as an everyday player.
Thoughts from the past week: Jacob Melton's stock is going up quickly. He's lost in the Gilbert/Loperfido/Dezenzo hype but he had a fantastic week and now could be a month a way from a one-way trip to Corpus where his hype train could really get moving. Clifford had a good week following that rough opening week in High A. I expect continued good performance from him. Not sure if Corpus ran into some good pitchers or the league is adjusting to their hitters or if there's just a synchronized slump but Whitcomb and Loperfido had less than stellar weeks. Loperfido still looks great overall given how much he is walking but Whitcomb's stock has dropped this month; 28% AA k rate would project to an unplayable rate in the big leagues. Perez, Dirden, and Leon all still sitting with k rate >29%. All 3 continue to disappoint. Despite Dezenzo's overall dominance his 2nd level numbers don't look that dominant. He is getting a lot of babip help. But I think he is the type of player that has a sustainable high babip rate. Still, I would like to see some more xbh from him in addition to continuing to lower the k rate before moving him up. Quincy Hamilton struck out a lot last week. Miguel Palma had a bit of a rebound week. Julio Robaina's stock is going up quickly. He is not getting a lot of strikeouts but he is throwing strikes and limiting runs. Spencer Arrighetti's stock is also going up, as is Colton Gordon. Garrett Wolforth looks like a pitcher-management wizard so far.
Sadly no Astro is likely to win rookie of the year as long as it is a matter of voting. Fair or not Astro hate precludes all but an undeniably superlative season from winning that award.
Understood. I was just wondering if anyone had any indight into why this may be the case? After his K reduction last year I was hoping (more than expecting) a similar improvement.
Disagree with this. Too many Astro rookies have received votes the last few years and there are no signs that voters treated them unfairly or they finished lower in the voting than they should.
Rhett Kouba has not walked a batter in 21IP this month. Also, Gordon is striking out 31% of batters this month across 20IP.
Lol. literally no one is picking up Abreu's contract for the price of Chassy Fizz. Literally no one is picking up Abreu in general. I would be very surprised if the Giants had any interest in trading JD Davis for Jake Meyers. Davis is on pace for a 4.5-5 win season and may end up being an all-star. He's also got a year of control left. They would really have to believe in the upside of Meyers to make that worth it.
I don't see them getting value back for Meyers or Chas. And honestly i'm not crazy about the idea of Julks or Dubon being the full-time OFer should someone get injured. (I don't think Gilbert should be rushed).
They should trade Chas for prospects if, and only if, they believe he can be replaced internally by Brantley or someone else. Meyers is the future of CF, he's not going anywhere.
Nah, not necessarily. I wouldn't trade McCormick of Meyers UNLESS the player development staff and coaches both say that Gilbert is ready... then I consider trading one for a true position of need. The player development staff has been exceptional at knowing when players are ready - there have been very very few times they have been wrong.
I firmly believe that Pedro Leon would already be in the big leagues and likely starting if not missed two full season at a crucial age for development. I also don't think the Astros did him any favors having him play the infield. Some players can develop their bat and glove at the same time - but from what I have heard, it overwhelmed Leon. At this point he just needs to play - not get injured, and see what he can do in AAA with another 300-400 at bats.
Meyers has 1.2 WAR right now JD Davis has 1 War. JD Davis has 1.5 years of control left, Meyers has 3.5 years worth of control left. The Giants suck balls this year and probably will continue to do so through the end of the trade deadline. If that's the case the proposition would be would they rather have 3 years of Jake or 1 year of JD Davis? I have no idea. The Jake of last year no chance. The Jake of 2021 and the last week? Sure. The next 2 months will tell if that would be something they might want to do. For his career Chas is worth 1 WAR for every ~150 AB's. For this year- Chas is worth 1 WAR for every 85 AB's. He's hitting his athletic prime. He plays a decent CF. That's a 4 WAR player even if you take the lower amount of his career totals and don't give him a credit for breakthrough this season. He's had no injury history- his lack of playing time is solely related to Dusty. He's likely to make $20M in arbitration the next 3 years (after this one). He makes less than 1M now. If you prorate that over the next 3.5 years he would be worth over 100M in surplus value. Jose Abreu is only owed something like $50M at the time of any trade where that to happen. Every trade value metric would tell you that Chas surplus is worth CONSIDERABLY more than Abreu's negative. Again, what you are saying is that nobody would agree to pay Chas McCormick a 3.5 year 70 million dollar deal (the 20 you would owe him and the 50 you owe Abreu). Andrew Benitendi just signed a 5/75 year contract. for his age 28-32 seasons. The fact that you don't think it's conceivable Chas could be worth 70M on a 3.5 year deal says you aren't paying any attention to numbers, pay, surplus value or the like. Is it guaranteed that move could be made? I don't know. Every available metric measuring the deal would tell you that it's totally and completely plausible though, and the Astros would be giving up more value than they receive in that scenario. Unless you don't think Chas is as good as Benittendi going forward. I think he's considerably better. Oswaldo Cabrerra is currently a -.6 WAR LF for the Yanks. Their RF also has negative value. They mint money. They'd be my first call. Chas would make them considerably better and they could just cut Abreu if they can't fix him in a week. That deal would also make sense for the Twins, Mets (their corner OFers are a mess and you know that's good value for them), Angels, Phillies (Their DH is actually so bad they might try to rehab Abreu), and Padres- just to name teams trying to compete this year that have a massive hole somewhere in their OF and enough moxie to take on 10M in salary this year to solve a problem and 23 and 27M respectively the next 2 years. Would all of them say yes? I have no idea- I don't know how they feel about internal replacements and the like. But those teams all would at least think about it I imagine. This is not absurd trade proposal **** right here- this is actually backed up by numbers and valuations. In fact, I would argue that the Astros would be the team that would not make that deal ultimately, that there would be a market. Chas is really good. Our fanbase (and manager) doesn't give him any credit for that. It's really weird. Meyers is likely good. But, we have Tucker who is awesome and Yordan who is a God that play OF already, and if Gilbert really is a diet coke version of Jim Edmonds then that makes all sorts of really interesting **** in play. Especially considering the Astros have some other guys in the OF behind him that also look pretty damn interesting.
