https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/astros-to-seek-fourth-option-season-for-forrest-whitley.html This would be huge for Whitley, although as a fan I’d just as soon he be out of options to force Houston to let him sink or swim in the majors.
If Tyler Whitaker can get 12 more pa for Asheville this week (the last week of the High a season) without his numbers cratering, he will enter into some pretty good comp territory. Since 2006, only 15 Astros hitters 20 or younger have posted a wRC+ of 102 or higher in High A (min 60 pa); 13 of them reached the major leagues, the other 2 are Miguel Palma (2022) and Ryan Clifford (this season prior to being traded).
The best hitting catcher in baseball - as a rookie - barely made the “consensus top 100”. With only 8 players I really appreciate all the work you do on specific players, but any discussion on organizational ratings, consensus, etc is just meaningless until the national evaluators learn to adjust for the Astros obviously superior development. in general, in a world where the gap from early minor league to MLB is so massive, development and work ethic/attitude is as important as raw talent, but the rankings strongly prioritize the latter. Its a major systemic bias that exists across player evaluation (and possibly life in general … but that’s a deeper topic).
I don’t think it’s so much the public rankings judging on talent as it is judging on pedigree (I.e. draft slot or bonus amount). Simply sorting prospects by how much bonus they received when they signed is a pretty efficient way to rank prospects, considering it takes almost zero work and in the end will be heavily correlated with MLB success. And the top 5-10 systems via those lazy rankings will probably be the top systems in reality. But to dig deeper than that and assess which orgs are uncovering prospects or developing prospects better than others takes a lot more work and comes with a lot more risk. Stats (especially in the lower levels) lie. Scouts and front office personnel lie and withhold information. There’s no way for any site to put eyes on all/most of the prospects across all 30 teams to evaluate them themselves. So I get why all these sites rank prospects/systems the way they do. I just think like you said at this point it’s pretty clear that a few orgs (Astros, Dodgers, Guardians, Rays) are a cut above when it comes to finding/developing prospects that don’t command big bonuses or high draft picks, and they’re lagging on adjusting the rankings for that.
Agreed. It’s like I told my kids when they were younger and worried about who was ahead of whom in math, art, sports, whatever … “you all suck relative to adults. All that matters is who works and develops the best.” I feel like lower minor leagues are the same. Of course natural talent matters and that does correlate with signing bonus and draft slot, and that correlates with success. But it’s such an imperfect correlation that I just cannot get excited about a conversation about “what would it take to get a highly rated system.” All of that said, perception does matter for trades … and there the Astros rep hurts them twice. “Core” rankings being low, and the rep they “they know better”, so whoever they are offering must not be good. A few consensus top picks would be nice to offset that.
Grouping prospects relative to the types of prospects Houston graduated this year: Yainer Diaz types (guys who carry some bust risk but have potential to be star players): Loperfido, Leon, Dezenzo, Melton, Corona, Barber, Daniels, Whitaker, Cerny, Cole, Gonzalez, Fisher, Matthews, Baez, Luciano, Ochoa, Bush, Jaworsky, Huezo, Gomez, Diaz, Valencia, Ramirez, Perez Grae Kessinger/Corey Julks types (guys who carry high floors but are unlikely to be star players): Whitcomb, Hamilton, Palma, Wagner JP France types (guys who could dramatically outperform their projection and be MoR SP): Gordon, Kouba, Macuare, Robaina, Gusto, Henley, Chaidez, Bellozo, Guilfoil, Bloss, Pecko, Taylor Hunter Brown types (guys with top notch stuff who carry RP risk): Whitley, Arrighetti, Tamarez, Knorr, Ullola, DeVos, Fleury, Santa, Urias, Santos, Tredwell, Espinosa, Rodriguez Those groupings are not totally clean or black and white, as the bust risk varies greatly and some of the guys in the first group have pretty high floors even if they don't reach their ceiling, but if Houston just has a 10% success rate of getting guys in that first group to hit their ceiling, that means there are 2-3 star/core position players currently on the farm. Hard to say this farm is in the bottom 3 in the league if that ends up being the case, which I would expect them to exceed that hit rate.
I LOVE this approach. It accounts for the variability of development and makes clear the most important factor, which is often hidden … development is the key. The difference between a 5% hit rate and a 10% hit rate on “Yanier Diaz types” DWARVES all other considerations. Create one more all star and you have 100M surplus value. Having 24 of those types - and a system that increases the odds they develop well - is so much more important than having 3 “consensus top 100” types who are confidently projected as major league starters. The floor of the latter is higher, but you can buy that floor cheaply every offseason. You cannot buy the ceiling - an all star player - for less than $200M. And the ceiling comes from a large pool of interesting players and fantastic development. The Astros have both, which is why I laugh at any ranking of the system in the bottom tier.
My older son always laughs about this and uses the "how many times do we have to teach you this lesson, old man" line from SpongeBob when we talk about it. Its really incredible, because every year the Astros are calling someone up who makes a significant difference...but it seems entirely lost on those who do the rankings league-wide.
Nice job. We have some differences but more in common than not. Camillo Diaz & Kenny Gomez should be getting more love, and I am not quite ready to bring back Melendez, Gusto, or Whitley yet. Disappointing to see Barber still in AA but I think he will start next season in Sugar Land. I like him a lot but not quite as much as you seem to. I am hopeful there is some off season movement in AAA to make some room for some actual prospects in the outfield there.
If the season were to end now, the Astros would have 37 players on their 40 man roster. So, with no acquisitions, there would be room to protect 3 from a potential rule 5 draft. According to Fangraphs the following players could potentially be lost if not protected: MLB and/or FG Top 30: Colin Barber, Kenedy Corona, Justin Dirden, Miguel Palma, Zach Daniels, Shay Whitcomb, Jaime Melendez, Misael Tamarez, Julio Robaina Others of interest: Luke Berryhill, J.C. Correa, Luis Aviles Jr., Christian Gonzalez, Ross Adolph, Jordan Brewer, Jayden Murray, Jimmy Endersby, Tyler Brown, Edison Batista, Ryan Gusto, Valente Bellozo, Diosmerky Taveras. Could be an interesting start to the offseason.
Barber and Corona will be added for sure. I think Whitcomb is very likely to be added as well. Gusto, Melendez, and Robaina carry some risk of being taken so very well could be added. Daniels, Brewer, Tamarez, Taveras, and Solis are high ceiling prospects who probably won’t be protected but another team could take them in the Rule 5 just to see if they can unlock something special during ST. Dirden is a bust and there’s no way Palma or Gonzalez are ready. I really can’t see any other eligible prospect being selected.
Cam Fisher hit two solo homers (3) for Fayetteville tonight and Jackson Loftin also went deep (9) in the Woodpeckers' 3-2 win over Charleston. Jose Fleury allowed two hits, walked four, and struck out six over four scoreless for the win. Colton Gordon allowed four hits, walked one, and struck out two in six shutout innings for Sugar Land. Jacob Melton hit his first AA home run in Corpus Christi's 5-1 win over Wichita.
Huh? Sorry, but you don’t know what you’re talking about. Teams don’t live their top 10 prospects exposed to the Rule 5 draft. Looks like you might need some sleep, homes.
JC Correa hit his 6th HR of the season tonight. He has really had a nice 2nd half, with an ops around 900 since July 1. He had the best swinging strike rate in the Org last season. He has posted a crazy low 12% k rate in AA. A super low AA k rate isn’t necessarily a big time indicator of MLB success especially when it’s not paired with average or better power. But with his defensive versatility Correa is certainly an interesting prospect worth following. He is very unlikely to end up being a star or even an everyday player, but a valuable 12th/13th position player is certainly a possibility. Will Wagner also had a HR tonight. Another legacy player, he’s also had a nice season. He doesn’t have any standout skill, but is an extremely well rounded lefthanded hitter who is not without defensive value, he’s passable at 3B and 2B, and would likely be average at least at 1B and LF and could probably play RF (although would likely be below average there). Another guy who might be pretty unlikely to be a star, but a fringe-regular 2B/3B or solid bench bat are well within his range of outcomes.
Turned into a HR fest for Corpus; Dezenzo hit one and Barber hit 2. Barber gets dinged for looking like he’s limited to LF (they haven’t given him a single game in CF this season) and not staying healthy (his 75 g so far this season are a career high), but I think he has a chance to be a really good MLB hitter and it would not shock me if he was able to sit in the 110-130 wRC+ range over the prime of his career.
Barber and Corona both strike me as players that are a slow burn - it takes them awhile to put it all together. I would not be surprised if one of them is a better big leaguer than a minor leaguer. Barber can play both corners and 1st. Corona is a good enough athlete and has great instincts, he can basically play anywhere - I personally think he is going to be a good defensive centerfielder.
