I could see him as a Maton type (low velo, high spin) reliever. Probably not enough juice or command to make it as a starter in the majors.
I think it can be hard to separate development from scouting. Guys like Framber, Javier, and Garcia had huge warts when they were signed but they all excelled at some things as well. Were the Astros better at determining what mattered and what didn't for these players (i.e., these guys were not properly valued by the league when they signed), or was their success more in mitigating the warts and highlighting the skills in a way other teams can't do (i.e., they were properly valued when signed but then the Astros PD made the difference)?
It is very hard to separate drafting and player development with the Astros. First (I don’t know about under Brown), the draft side will say that they don’t draft players like other teams. They draft the players that the internal data shows will likely have the most improvement working with the Astros player development staff. So there are times the draftnicks take players that they don’t necessarily think are the overall best. Second, when it comes to the draft - the player development guys are brought in and the R&D people to discuss what they see on tape. A decision is often a group decision unless the GM just puts his foot down. Third, the draft side also is brought in to work with the players after they are drafted - so there is a lot of overlap. So it is hard to say, but if I had to pick a side - I will go player development because those guys have been pretty consistent and they have a long track record. I think it’s the opposite with the Dodgers, their scouts are better than the Astros but the player development isn’t quite as good. The quality of the Astros player development and how hands on the big league staff is with minor leaguers also prevents the Astros from trading the wrong prospect most of the time. In the past, with someone like Javier or Valdez in the minors, they had members of the big league team watching their games and sending them suggestions and physically driving or flying to see them to work with them. It’s part of why the Astros essentially have two pitching coaches. Also former players like Roger Clemens, Nolan Ryan (in the past) would watch them and then meet with them. The Astros really make sure that there are a lot of smart people working with and watching these guys practice and play - and having the R&D people bring information to everyone involved.
I mean, don't trade just for the sake of trading, but I was hoping we could do some more "housekeeping" to clear space for some promotions. Namely, I'd like to see Gordon and Kouba both in AAA, Melton to AA, and Loperfido and Dezenzo to AAA.
Most those kids will be selling cars like Brett Oberholtzer in 5-10 years- but it’s great to see how genuinely happy and excited they are - baseball is a game for the young, once you start noticing and appreciating the wisdom and philosophy of the game - you are too old to play it… just like 100 years ago, over grown kids and young men reveling in the joy of winning on a game ending play and in that moment nothing else matters- no worries or responsibilities and the world is perfect. We all live for slivers of perfection. Also yeah - if you want to buy a Ford, Oberholtzer will sell you one… he is a mid level car salesman with a family and bills and likely a wife more often than not, mad at him… I hope sometimes he closes his eyes and thinks about the time he struck out AL MVP Mike Trout. No one can take that away from him.
So what’s Matthews path/plan? Outfield? Can he play 3rd and be Bregman replacement after next year? Peña to 3rd? I’m assuming they extend Altuve and breggy is going to want too much, especially if crane plans on actually extending tucker
They are gonna develop him as a SS and offensive player then worry about where he fits. He might mix in some 2B next year. My opinion is he will not be a fast mover like Gilbert was. I will be (very pleasantly) surprised if Matthews reaches AA by the end of next season. Once he gets to the upper levels and shows he is going to be an impact major league bat, they’ll decide if they want to have him play another position. He has the athleticism to play pretty much anywhere.
Too far away to worry about. You leave him at SS until he shows he can't. If he shows he's ready for a big league callup in the next few years, you figure out where to put him then.
Jacob Melton has really rounded into form getting his k rate down. Comparing his 2023 high A numbers to Dezenzo and Loperfido is interesting: Melton: 13%bb, 21%k, .223 ISO, .259/.355/.482 (.292 BABIP), 127 wRC+ Dezenzo: 12%bb, 20%k, .221 ISO, .407/.474/.628 (.494 BABIP!?!?!), 194 wRC+ Loperfido: 5%bb, 22%k, .265 ISO, .265/.297/.529 (.308 BABIP), 112 wRC+
Jake Bloss's first professional inning in the FCL was a 1-2-3 1st with a strikeout. Raimy Rodriguez is now in the game.
Matthews was drafted in part because he is expected to stay up the middle at SS, 2nd or CF. That and his athleticism are why Brown made the executive decision to take him. So he isn't likely to play 3rd. Also, I would be shocked if Matthews has a perfectly linear track to the big leagues. I expect some struggles in AA, AAA and the big leagues. I expect him to likely repeat a level as well. If you want a third baseman, then Zach Dezenzo is likely your man. He has the potential to be a good defensive 3rd baseman with power and the ability to walk. Imagine a Matt Chapman, with not as good a glove and possibly a little better batting average and contact rate.
A lot of talent - he is a very good athlete. Another Astros player with some concerns over contact rates. Good body at 6'3" and about 210 - already has plus power and loves to run, very good at stealing bases (something else Brown wisely has been pushing). He is about to turn 23, they really need to get him into AA to see how he does - he is a little old for his level.
I find this fascinating and I wonder if it is something other teams do. It might explain why a guy like Brice Mathews was selected and viewed as a reach by some. Perhaps the Astros saw in him a high potential to respond to their specific development and so he was worth taking in the 1st round. I would have always thought teams simply looked at raw tools and how they would project to the majors (as well as character things like work ethic, temperament, etc).
It's not like they can trade back in the draft and pick him 50th where he is ranked..if they want him they have to draft him there or he likely would have been gone by pick #2. No point in trying to get cute and miss on a guy.
Curious what options the Stros have on Jon Singleton? If they bring him up can they send him back down without any ramifications? Anyone have any insight on this?
He’s out of options so I believe they can’t send him down without exposing him to waivers, I imagine he gets a September call up. I for one don’t really buy the hype, he’s 31 with a bad body and no pedigree with big league success. It’s a nice story seeing him back but I feel like that September spot should go to someone like Leon that can provide base running and defensive outfield value.
