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2023 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Dec 1, 2022.

  1. IdStrosfan

    IdStrosfan Member

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    Straw can't hit much.

    Just like Maldy can't hit much.

    But baseball is a complete game that requires hitting but also running, catching, and throwing.

    There are many skills besides hitting that contribute to winning.

    Now, I'm not saying I'm not glad the Astros moved on and gave Chas and/or Meyers his spot.
     
  2. Yordan The Great

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    Maldonado 0.6 WAR, seems much more appropriate a number for Straw.
     
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  3. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

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    My current most valuable Prospects list. Updated January 15th.
    1) A- Hunter Brown
    2) B+ Drew Gilbert*
    3) B Pedro Leon
    4) B Miguel Ullola
    5) B Will Wagner*
    6) B Colt Gordon*
    7) B Jacob Melton*
    8) B Korey Lee
    9) B Kenni Gomez
    10) B Yainer Diaz
    11) B Colin Barber*
    12) B Austin Temple
    13) B- Justin Dirden
    14) B- Trey Dombroski*
    15) C+ Logan Cerny
    16) C J Loperfido
    17) C Jayden Murray
    18) C Ryan Clifford*
    19) C Jaime Melendez
    20) C Sandro Gaston
    21) C Forrest Whitley
    22) C J.C. Correa
    23) C Michael Knorr
    24) C Valente Bellozo
    25) C Elvis Garcia
    26) C Luis Baez
    27) C S Arrighetti
    28) C Alex Santos II
    29) C H Gaby Nieves
    30) C- Andrew Taylor
     
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  4. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    This list is…interesting. What is the logic behind Hector Nieves and Austin Temple being in the top 30?
     
  5. BlindHog

    BlindHog Member

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    My most valuable prospects list is built to be more forward looking than most. I am very comfortable with these selections.
    Wagner and Nieves where chosen back to back at the end of the 2020 draft for the same reason. Both were rated far too low. I put both on my list immediately after the draft and Wagner justified my enthusiasm last season. I fully expect the same from Nieves this season.
    Temple is a #2/3 starter who has been injured but should recover fully this season. I can only say keep an eye on him he will be on a lot of lists at the end of the season.
     
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  6. Htown Legend

    Htown Legend Member

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  7. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Shawn Dubin has the best change-up? Has his change-up gotten better than previous reports or the Astros just do not have any good changes in the system?
     
  8. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Yeah that surprised me too. I thought his slider was his best pitch.
     
  9. Screaming Fist

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    Yainer as best power hitter is also interesting. Colton Gordon is going to take off this year.
     
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  10. RunninRaven

    RunninRaven Contributing Member
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    I'm always curious about Corey Julks. I know most teams must not think his skills will translate to the big leagues (despite last season's numbers) because no one took him in the rule V draft. What is it that people are concerned with in his case? His power numbers are good, he must have decent speed to be able to steal 20+ bases. I've seen him play a few times and don't remember anything special that I saw but that was before last season's breakout. What would it take for him to move up your list?
     
  11. sealclubber1016

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    You answered your own question.

    Older jack of all trades, master of none prospects will never receive hype. Chas McCormick (albeit younger) was a very similar type prospect and he took advantage when the window opened. Julks will get his chance with somebody eventually if he keeps performing, but he won't be given anything nor will he ever be given top prospect billing.
     
  12. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Prior to 2021, he hadn’t shown much. He was a plus athlete but didn’t look like he’d ever be more than average in CF and never hit more than 10 HR in a season. As a mid round pick he didn’t have much pedigree and he was never young for the league he was assigned to. So it’s easy to see hwy he really wasn’t on anybody’s radar.

    He broke out a bit in 2021 after some time on the development list and hit 14 HR in 85 games. But still, his defensive limitations meant he had to either improve dramatically or thread a needle as a 4th OF. So in 2022 a couple of great things happened. He maintained his 2021 power breakout while moving up to AAA, hitting 31 HR, while still showing he could add value on the bases, stealing 22. Also, he began to play 3B, adding to his defensive versatility. That’s what has moved him from Org depth to a legit prospect. What’s keeping him from being considered a top prospect or a future core piece? First, he’s already entering his age 27 season, so he’s not exactly young; these are his prime years. Second, a lot of people are dismissive of power shows in the PCL. And finally, I have not seen too many reviews of how he handled 3B; he got in 49 games there so I doubt he was too terrible, but it could be that scouts don’t really view him as viable there as more than an emergency option.

    So for him to take the next step, one of 2 things has to happen. One, he could maintain his offense in AAA, further establishing that he is a hitter with real power who also maintains good k/bb ratios, while also showing that he can be an average defender at 3-4 positions; maybe even mixing in some time at 1B add further add to his potential as an MLB bench player. The other possibility (unlikely since he’s not on the 40 man and the AAA roster looks like it’ll be very deep) is if an opportunity opens in Houston and he is given a shot and capitalizes.

    I don’t think he’ll get to the point of being a top prospect. If he has another good year then he will be either added to the 40 man and kept on as a backup option for a couple years, or more likely another team will take a deeper look at him and he will be traded somewhere that will give him a big league opportunity. As far as value predictions, I do think he’ll make the majors and play a few years as a slightly above replacement bench player.
     
  13. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    1) Kevin Pillar was hitting a homer every ~17 PAs in AAA versus Julks homer every ~20 PAs. Pillar is 33 and has a ton of MLB experience, but he's still a no power, defense first CF.
    2) I'm not sure if teams/scouts are 100% confident how to evaluate Space Cowboys with Sugar Land being an extreme pitcher's park in an extreme hitter's league as park corrections take time to be accurate.
     
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  14. RunninRaven

    RunninRaven Contributing Member
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    I had forgotten the PCL is very much a hitters league (though not so much Sugarland). I get the Pillar comparison, though Pillar's numbers came over 42 games and he totaled 10 homeruns in that time. There are always AAAA guys that can never seem to stick in the big leagues but pummel the minors. I'm just wondering what it would take for Corey to be seen as something more than a AAAA guy. Snake's response answered nicely. I think it is interesting that he has nice SB speed but is considered limited on defense. I guess the OF instincts aren't there.

    Thanks all for the thoughtful responses. I think I've mentioned before, but Julks is my dad's mailman's son, so I've kind of been rooting for him. Last season surprised me and made me wonder if he might be better than I thought.
     
  15. Rockets34Legend

    Rockets34Legend Contributing Member

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  16. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    After thinking more about it, I think I am leaning even more towards the Astros just don't have a good changeup in the lower levels, and he got picked as his is just further along than anyone else's. I'd guess he is still a slider first pitcher.

    The Astros have been throwing more 12-6 curves to LHBs vs the change. Considering the Astros go after pitchers that can spin the ball, it is probably just easier to have pitchers develop a slider for same side batters and a curve for the opposite side.
     
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  17. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I think an overarching theme in prospect tracking is that it is VERY rare for position player 4 year college draftees taken after the 2nd round to end up on top prospect lists. With how quickly teams are promoting those types of players (partially as a byproduct of service time rule changes and minor league retraction), by the time they start showing signs that they might be destined for MLB success, they are very likely already in the upper levels of the minors and less than a year away from graduating. The window for them to show up on prospect lists during that time is very short and honestly there probably isn’t much incentive for prospect list makers to include them.
     
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  18. tellitlikeitis

    tellitlikeitis Canceled
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  19. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    ****!
     
  20. Nook

    Nook Member

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    That list is nice and everything but the best athlete in the Astros system (big leagues included) is Pedro Leon.

    He can play any position. He has a cannon for an arm. He has a lot of power and bat speed, he is very quick and fast and has a 40 inch vertical as well. He is a very elite athlete regardless of sport. No other recent athlete with the Astros jumps out as better.

    Also, Leon is a better defensive outfielder than Gilbert....

    The problem with Leon is making contact and staying healthy.... he has really been snake bitten between COVID and defecting and injuries.
     

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