Yeah- that's why my first suggestion was empty the tank for 3 innings and the second was an opener. I don't absolutely hate the idea of him getting into the game against like the 5th-7th hitter depending upon how the opener goes (5th or 6th if the first inning isn't perfect- 7th if you got the ideal start with 1,2,3 innings in 1st and second). I'd probably go empty the tank for 3 innings or so and figure Urquidy in relief on Wednesday and France in relief on game 161.
One thing left out of the equation is the fact that the best teams in the AL probably are not going to the playoffs. The AL Central division winner goes regardless. Still annoys me and wish this were changed.
The playoffs require 10-11 position players and 8-9 pitchers. If you look at those 18-20 players for each AL contender the Astros have the best roster by far. It will come down to if the starters can be effective for 4+ innings or twice through the order and how many games Chas and Diaz play vs sitting the bench.
My working thesis has always been 8 dudes for pitchers and 6 really good hitters for a WS champ. Your 4 starters are important and then your 6, 7th, 8th, and 9th inning guy. If you are winning a game you are (typically) going to only use 5 pitchers (max), your starter and your 4 best leverage relievers. Really, you are probably only going to use 3 of them in a typical game but you want 4 so that you can vary the looks somewhat over a 7 game series so you don't always go back to the same guy. You need 3 or 4 bats going well. To get to that number in the playoffs that means you probably need 6 good hitters to get 3 good ones on any particular day. 4 good hitters going well is likely going to mean you score at least 4 a game in your wins. With the aforementioned 8 dude pitching lineup that means you likely win more than you lose at that number. Astros have 4 dudes on the pitching staff that you feel like you can probably count on? That's a tough loss. Framber, Presley, Nerris, Abreu. That's probably why we don't win the WS this year- I bet that's what does us in. Could JV be a dude? Sure. Could Brown, Javier or France be dudes? Yeah- especially if it was in relief. Montero? He's done it- he has the stuff. Do I want to count on it? Not really. In the playoffs I probably try to get 6/7 from Framber & JV and figure that's enough to get you past the division best of 5 as they will combine for 3 appearances and it will be against a staff that isn't lined up. In the ALCS you hope they give you 4 games started and that you go 3-1. Then, you have to piece together another win between Brown, Javier, France and urquidy in some sort of order where you hope a couple of them can combine to give you 5 or 6 innings at 3 runs or less, the bullpen can keep it there and the boys can score 4 or 5 and then pop the corks and celebrate. Is it possible? Sure, but based upon the past couple months you have to sort of squint to see it happening. Lineup you have: Alvarez, Altuve, Tucker, Bregman, Chas and Brantley all as dudes. Diaz if he ever got to play. Abreu if his back is ok. Pena- I'm giving up hope on him being a stud, but he can definitely keep the lineup moving. We might choose not to play 2 of our certified dudes b/c our manager is a moron (and take worse defense as part of the tradeoff!) but even with what's left that's plenty enough for half of them to be going ok in any particular game. Any 2 of those dudes (not Brantley b/c he doesn't hit the ball over the fence enough) can get hot and carry the team for a week or two at a time. It's set up decently well on offense if we are smart enough to use it.
My problem with this scenario is it seems like France gets clobbered in the first inning then settles in.
Maybe. He was really good in relief the one or two times he did it. If Framber gives you 5 then you go directly to the leverage relievers in the bullpen and bypass France altogether. Lets just say I sincerely hope the Astros aren't playing a game 162 that matters and trying to cobble it together with Johnny Allstaff
I get what you are saying so there are 3 choices.. . 1) sit France the rest of the season and post season 2) put him in the bullpen where his bad first inning could be the 4th or 6th or 7th 3) keep him starting, hope his bad first inning isn't terrible and there are still 8-9 innings to overcome it. None of them are good options.
Eh - 5 of the 6 best teams will be in it. Does it really matter if the 6th or 7th best does? And can you really say Minnesota is worse than whoever flails their way to 3rd in the west? A few years ago before they expanded the playoffs, the 6th best team wouldn't have been in regardless and no one seemed to mind.
It's been 6 years since an AL Central team has won a 5 game postseason series and reached the ALCS. Currently longest drought of any division. Though the Astros currently having the longest streak of ALCS appearances ever and 2nd longest LCS appearances ever has been a major factor in that.
Wish Blue Jays swept Rangers, instead of other way around. At least sink 1 team out of the race. But can't turn back time. Astros can't tie Mariners or Blue Jays cuz they have tiebreaker over Astros. Got to have better outright record. Basically now, unfortunately, its may the best team win from here.
Here’s the predicament, the Astros actually have to win games or else they are done. No more free ride. For example, the only way to gain ground this weekend is to sweep KC, otherwise they are guaranteed to gain no ground, as one of Seattle or Texas will win 2 games at least. So, as for the division, the Astros will likely have to win at least 7 or 8 of the final 10 games. This a daunting task considering the state of the team. I hope they can flip a switch.
Wrong, Mariners take the division and Rangers are knocked out of the WC. O's can knock the Astros out of the playoffs altogether tomorrow, a 2-6 stretch with Dusty delivering the kiss of death by announcing there's no need to panic over the radio.
