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2023/24 Projections and Predictions thread

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by jim1961, Oct 6, 2023.

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Which 5 teams will the Rockets be better than?

  1. San Antonio Spurs

    81.4%
  2. Portland Trail Blazers

    83.7%
  3. Utah Jazz

    55.8%
  4. Dallas Mavericks

    29.1%
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder

    34.9%
  6. New Orleans Pelicans

    40.7%
  7. Minnesota Timberwolves

    37.2%
  8. Los Angeles Lakers

    16.3%
  9. Los Angeles Clippers

    20.9%
  10. Other (specify)

    12.8%
Multiple votes are allowed.
  1. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    Not just you. I have had those thoughts also.

    Myself, I dont know the extent to which our guys were hampered and dampened in their progress under the previous regime, so its hard to guess what the impact will be under the new regime in this regard.

    Its probably also true that some guys were more negatively affected than others.
     
  2. Corrosion

    Corrosion Member

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    I saw your response and to be completely honest, it didn't make me feel any better about the shooting situation, particularly after watching all the 5 on 5 footage from their training camp which looked like a brick throwing contest.

    And you did say that if Green and Smith don't improve ..... they move towards being busts. That's a terrible thought as a Rockets fan. In that case we wasted two years.
     
  3. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    The shooting is down for everyone currently ......37+% is the median in the regular season.....

    The average 3 pt percentage in the Pre-season has been been 32-34%. So far.

    A lot of scrub play involved but also surprisingly teams are guarding the perimeter in the first Preseason games.

    Couple of Over Time situations where teams relied on 3 point shooting and the pct was going down.

    https://www.nba.com/stats/teams/preseason?Season=2023-24&dir=D&sort=FG3_PCT
     
  4. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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  5. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    2023-24 NBA GM Survey: 50 questions ahead of new season

    Which team made the best overall moves this offseason?

    T-1. Boston Celtics – 23%
    T-1. Milwaukee Bucks – 23%
    3. Portland Trail Blazers – 17%
    4. Los Angeles Lakers – 13%
    T-5. Dallas Mavericks – 7%
    T-5. Houston Rockets – 7%

    Which one player acquisition will make the biggest impact?

    1. Damian Lillard, Milwaukee – 47%
    2. Jrue Holiday, Boston – 13%
    3. Bradley Beal, Phoenix – 10%
    T-4. Kristaps Porzingis, Boston – 7%
    T-4. Fred VanVleet, Houston – 7%

    What was the most underrated player acquisition?

    1. Marcus Smart, Memphis – 17%
    2. Grant Williams, Dallas – 14%
    T-3. Dillon Brooks, Houston – 7%
    T-3. Bruce Brown, Indiana – 7%
    T-3. Jusuf Nurkic, Phoenix – 7%
    T-3. Max Strus, Cleveland – 7%
    T-3. Fred VanVleet, Houston – 7%

    Which team will be most improved in 2023-24?

    1. Oklahoma City Thunder – 30%
    2. Houston Rockets – 23%
    T-3. Dallas Mavericks – 10%
    T-3. Detroit Pistons – 10%
    T-3. Orlando Magic – 10%

    Which rookie was the biggest steal at where he was selected in the Draft?

    1. Cam Whitmore (20), Houston – 43%
    T-2. Keyonte George (16), Utah – 10%
    T-2. Scoot Henderson (3), Portland – 10%
    T-2. Jaime Jaquez Jr. (18), Miami – 10%
    5. Brandin Podziemski (19), Golden State – 7%

    Which new or relocated head coach will make the biggest impact on his new team?

    1. Ime Udoka, Houston – 57%
    2. Monty Williams, Detroit – 17%
    3. Frank Vogel, Phoenix – 13%
    T-4. Adrian Griffin, Milwaukee – 7%
    T-4. Darko Rajakovic, Toronto – 7%

    I only posted answers where the Rockets placed.

    https://www.nba.com/news/2023-24-nba-gm-survey


     
    #65 jim1961, Oct 10, 2023
    Last edited: Oct 10, 2023
  6. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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  7. IREYAT

    IREYAT Member

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    Not sure if I'm being a homer but I can totally see 42 wins. But that's not to say I think we will, but he's my reasonable path towards 20 more wins.

    Not trying to lose should maybe account for 3 to 5 more wins.

    Player development could be 3 to 5 wins.

    Ime could be 3 to 5 wins.

    FVV and DB could be 3 to 5 wins.

    KPJ and simply not playing without a PG and having two PG's could be 3 to 5 wins.

    That's 15 to 25 wins, split it and its 20.
     
  8. cheke64

    cheke64 Member

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    Save this. The Boston Celtics are going to be worse.
     
  9. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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  10. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    This is the best Pre-season team I have witnessed so far next to the Magic and the Timberwolves.

    And encouraging that this will carry over to the first half of the season.
     
  11. HTownTmac1

    HTownTmac1 Member

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    I saw the rockets were +4200 to win the division . Could that actually happen ? o_O
     
  12. daywalker02

    daywalker02 Member

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    Probably but the better they play, the more other teams will notice and probably go against them.
     
  13. Spacemoth

    Spacemoth Contributing Member

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    After watching two preseason games, I’m sold. This is a drastically different team than before. Not only young and talented but finally disciplined, and the roster actually seems to make sense now. Three offensive connectors in FVV, Alpi, and Amen. Three defensive connectors in Brooks, Tari, and Tate. And three play finishers in Green, Bari, and Whitmore. And it’s not like any of those nine is truly glaring in any one trait either. Tremendous overlap of skills: for example, I think by next year Amen will be our best point of attack defender over even Brooks and Tari. His impact will be felt immediately. In the best case scenario the responsibilities of FVV, Brooks, and Tate go down progressively as the year marches on, as the youth begin to figure things out and do it even better than the wily vets.

    San Antonio, Portland, Utah, New Orleans, Dallas. We’ll be better than those teams this year, and maybe a couple others too assuming injuries which always happen more to older declining stars. This team wins 36+ games and challenges for a play-in.
     
  14. YOLO

    YOLO Member

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    nope
     
  15. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    The biggest issue the Rockets will face is that the vast majority of the team flat out can't shoot. That won't be a problem in preseason, since no one is trying to win all that hard, but when games matter, I think it's going to cause problems. When your starting SF, SG, and C can't hit the 3, it's going to kill spacing. Now consider that they don't really even have much shooting coming off the bench.....it's going to be REALLY hard for the Rockets to not be the worst shooting team in the league.
     
    J.R. and ApacheWarrior like this.
  16. xaos

    xaos Member

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    Yup, very well said. I've thought a lot about this before, during and after the offseason. Rockets are really setting themselves up for a bright future with the current roster construction. I am not saying the roster is complete or that we will not make any big trades,... but the roster really has a great composition for opportunities for the young guys and/or the organization
     
    Mathloom and AlperenSengun like this.
  17. ApacheWarrior

    ApacheWarrior Member

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    Correct.

    Many of the Homers here will learn eventually.

    Last night we shot:
    1st Half: 17.6% from 3

    1st Qt:
    (3/7) x 42.9% (all 3 makes by Jabari Smith)

    2nd Qt:
    (0/10) x 0%
    Dillon 0/1
    Jabari 0/1
    Sengun 0/2
    Vv 0/3
    Jeff Green 0/1
    Eason 0/1
    Bullock 0/1

    2nd Half was better as we shot 38.5% in the 3rd Qt and 60% in the 4th.
    But a deep dive shows our summer league guys helped.

    3rd Qt:
    Dillon 1/3
    Jabari 1/1
    Sengun 0/2
    Jalen Green 0/1
    Amen 1/1
    Bullock 1/3
    Holiday 1/1
    Whitmore 0/1 (only played 9 minutes.....as Dillon played more game this time)


    4th Qt:
    Amen 0/1
    Eason 1/1
    Whitmore 0/3

    J Williams 1/1
    Hudgins 1/2
    Hinton 1/1
    Days 1/1


    Player.......ORtg / DRtg
    1st half
    Dillon 106.5 / 75.0
    Jabari 106.9 / 78.6
    Sengun 100.0 / 68.8
    Jalen G 116.7 / 86.1
    Vv 109.5 / 80.0
    Eason 104.2 / 78.3
    Bullock 81.3 / 53.3
    So yes, imo our defense will be top notch. But our offense will struggle.

    2nd Half (Rockets seldom used players pulled things away)
    Dillon 105.6 / 82.4
    Jabari 100.0 / 77.3
    Sengun 105.6 / 82.4
    Jalen G 105.6 / 82.4
    Amen 114.3 / 100.0
    Tate 76.9 / 100.0
    Eason 109.5 / 100.0
    Bullock 90.9 / 70.0
    Holiday 109.1 / 100.0
    Whitmore 109.1 / 91.3
    Boban 121.4 / 80.0
    J Samuels 137.5 / 75.0
    J Williams / 137.5 / 75.0
    Hudgins 140.0 / 80.
    0
    Hinton 180.0 / 90.0
    Days 180.0 / 90.0

    Locked on Pelicans we're talking about how the Pels were kinda out of it.
    New offense, Zion only got one shot in the 1st half and was put in the corner
    as a spot up shooter, frozen out during the game. Only saw the Zion/Ingram
    PnR like one time.

    NBA teams are not dumb. They will eventually clog the paint during the regular
    season and force Houston to shoot from distance. All that sagging off will interfere
    with back door cuts and slashing.

    Stats per NBA.com (traditional and advanced)
    https://www.nba.com/game/hou-vs-nop...tchRecap=true&period=2ndHalf&type=traditional



     
    #77 ApacheWarrior, Oct 13, 2023
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2023
    jim1961 likes this.
  18. CXbby

    CXbby Member

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    Your 26 win projection is looking like doodoo
     
  19. BaselineFade

    BaselineFade Member
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  20. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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    Here is how our division lined up last season.

    Memphis Grizzlies
    New Orleans Pelicans
    Dallas Mavericks
    Houston Rockets
    San Antonio Spurs

    But in the not too distant future, it may look like this.

    Houston Rockets
    San Antonio Spurs
    Memphis Grizzlies
    New Orleans Pelicans
    Dallas Mavericks
     

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