Overall I think you are dramatically overestimating the value of some of the current Astros. I don't believe Siri, McCormick or Javier are highly valued on the trade market. Let's not forget that 18 months ago the Astros signed free agent Jose Siri to a minor league contract. He's not a top prospect. I like McCormick but he is a low-ceiling overachiever. Javier hasn't shown much more than being a spot starter and middle reliever. These are not key pieces in a trade for one of the best players in baseball. Leon and Brown have promise but few would regard them as top 100 prospects in MLB. I personally believe Jake Meyers will be a great player and think we should hold on to him.
LA is LA. San Diego has a a window right now until payroll crushes them. SF has money and smarts and will always be competitive outside of rebuilding years every decade or so. Colorado is whatever, AZ is the new Padres for the foreseeable future.
You underrate Javier. You possibly overrate Meyers (we'll see when he plays again for a bit). Siri and/or Chas are fine bench OFs for any good team, but replaceable. Leon and Brown are already top-100 prospects. Lee is fringe, due to position value. Hell, Whitley is probably still fringe-100 too, just on talent.
Opinions vary and I accounted for that in my comment. It’s reasonable to think McCormick and Siri wouldn’t have much trade value, because neither of them had much of any prospect pedigree. However, it’s also entirely reasonable to speculate they would have significant trade value, as both players have now shown some measure of success in the majors; Siri has 1.2 fwar in 117 mlb pa (132 wRC+), while McCormick has 2.2 fwar in 420 pa. There’s not much about their performance that points to it being lucky or unsustainable, so it’s easy to envision a team thinking that they could sustain their performance, which would make them solid regulars, and in Siri’s case a potential star. Brown was a Top 100 prospect on most lists entering the season, and his early performance has significantly raised his stock; at this point he’s likely a consensus MLB top 75 prospect, with most lists having him in the top 50. Leon was not on any top 100 lists coming into the season, but with his current performance (138 wRC+ as a 23 yo in AAA) and prospect pedigree (top bonus overall in his intl class) he is likely to be on a few mid season top 100 lists. Finally, I totally disagree that Javier doesn’t have trade value. Since he debuted he’s 29th in the league in era among ALL pitchers (3.48, min 180ip). He’s established himself as, at worst, an extremely good multi inning relief weapon (10.64k/9). Of course there’s going to be variance in how much other teams value a player like him. But if you don’t think Javier has trade value equivalent to at least a fringe Top 100 prospect, I think you’re pretty far off the mark. None of those guys (or any of Houston’s other prospects) might interest the Nats enough to get Soto. But to argue those pieces don’t have significant value and aren’t close to enough to acquire a good major league player is crazy. By that logic, Jeremy Pena wouldn’t have much trade value (“remember, 18 months ago he was a defense-first 3rd round pick who hadn’t played above A ball and wasn’t on a single top 100 list”).
One thing I will be paying attention to this trade deadline is how teams treat near-ready elite prospects, because I want to see how the new rule that provides a draft pick for prospects who start the season in the majors and win awards affects how they are valued. Houston has 3 prospects (Hunter Brown, Korey Lee, and Pedro Leon) who could reasonably be expected to debut on opening day 2023 and be in the mix for rookie of the year next season. It’ll be interesting to see if that enters into the calculation. It may cause teams to lean toward trading prospect further away from the majors (for Houston, that would be guys like Alex Santos and Colin Barber) or guys who’ve already debuted (Siri, McCormick, Abreu, Javier) rather than their potential rookie award winners. Categorizing how I view Houston’s tradable assets: Tier 1 (guys who would single handedly land a controllable star): none Tier 2 (guys who would be a significant piece of a deal for a controllable star): Hunter Brown, Pedro Leon, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, Korey Lee Tier 3 (complementary pieces for a star, or primary prices for a 2nd tier everyday player): Forrest Whitley, Jose Siri, Chas McCormick, Bryan Abreu Tier 4 (complementary pieces for a 2nd tier player, primary pieces for a 3rd tier player or reliever): Alex Santos, Colin Barber, JJ Matijevic, Joe Perez, Peter Solomon, Shawn Dubin, Misael Tamarez, Yainer Diaz, Enmanuel Valdez, Tyler Whitaker Tier 5 (guys other teams will try to steal as throw-ins): Luis Baez, Wilyer Abreu, David Hensley, Dauri Lorenzo, lots of pitchers
Not even going to start into Mike Matheney and the Cards... This reminds me of a bunch of the Cards, b/t 07 and 17, who were non-prospect rookies around the age of 25+, had good, short careers, helped the team win multiple WS rings, and then faded away... Chris Duncan Ryan Ludwick Allen Craig Jon Jay Matt Carpenter probably others Astros like Hensley and Matijevic remind me of these guys.
I've seen that before. I think it was Clemens, Pettitte and Oswald all wanted Ausmus, even when he wasn't hitting. Ausmus needed a break, but none of the pitchers wanted it on their start.
We can't just casually toss out that several of our players are Top 100 players. Unfortunately, others don't see it that way. You failed to list a single source that lists anyone other than Pena as a Top 100 prospect. As we think about expectations with trading partners, we have to be realistic. We also can't say that McCormick and Siri are SUPER VALUABLE and then simultaneously we are in the market for a CF upgrade. That's inherently contradictory.
Literally every sentence of your comment is wrong. Here’s Korey Lee and Hunter Brown on the fangraphs top 100: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-top-100-prospects/ Zero people on this site have said McCormick and Siri are ”SUPER VALUABLE”. Zero people on this site have suggested in the last month that the Astros are in the market for a CF upgrade. Please go away.
Peña is a terrible example dude. He might not be on a single top 100 list going into the year, but my strong suspicion is that he be a top 25-50 value in all of organized baseball right now as a trade chip. I don’t think that can even be remotely doubted.
I read an article on ESPN that was using some kind of Index to make odds for MVP. Pena was 8th on the index, but was not suggested as an MVP candidate. Pena has to be closest to the number 1 prospect in all of baseball.
With Gurriel coming around and the addition of Dubon, for now it looks like the best place to upgrade the roster would be to add an elite left handed reliever. Unfortunately there currently doesn’t project to be many good options available. There are 3 young lefties having good seasons on teams that should be poised to sell: Brock Burke (Rangers), Keegan Akin (Orioles), and AJ Puk (A’s). Since they all have 3+ years of control remaining they would likely require an overpay. But otherwise it’s kind of hard to see a move that is worthwhile for Houston, at least until Meyers comes back and we see if CF needs to be addressed.
The only move I can see being worthwhile for Houston would be to add a superstar position player, like we were rumored to be close to doing in 2019 with Bryce Harper. Juan Soto is basically the only name I can think of that fits this bill now that Jose Ramirez has been extended. Just don't seen the point in making a marginal upgrade, especially to the pitching staff, when our organization has shown how consistently it is able to graduate excellent players from its system.
I agree with you. Although there’s an argument that if Gurriel and Brantley are both healthy and hitting well, it’s hard to even justify adding Soto, since it would mean one of those guys would end up on the bench.
Completely different situations between Harper in 2018 and Soto now. Harper was an impending FA at the time. Soto has another 2 years of control (at probably still below market arbitration rates). It would take a crazy haul to get Soto. He's a top 3-4 best offensive player in baseball on a (relatively) cheap contract and with 2 more years of control.
Regarding lefty relief, Andrew Chafin from the Tigers is another option. His deal is only one year (with a player option next year), so the cost shouldn’t be as high. I don’t think we just “stand pat” nor should we. The saying goes, if you aren’t getting better, you’re getting worse. Everyone else will look to get better, so we have to do the same, and prevent others from improving along the way.
