He doesn’t have to be healthy for that to be just fine as a deal. 2 months of LMJ and healthy as the 2 or 3 starter is absolutely worth 15-18 million for the Astros this year. Last year he gave them 3.5 WAR so at 8.5 million per that would have been worth 30 million. He made 17. He got hurt in the playoffs and that sucked. But we needed him in the regular season to be a stud and he was. Seeing as how his total contract was 85 million and he’s already at 30 in value, and by all accounts is just fine, and is only 28 years old, I’d be shocked if the deal doesn’t turn into surplus for the Astros.
That’s just not true. The Astros are easily set to get through with any 4 starting pitchers (non Odo division) they pick out of the 7 (8 if you count Brown like I do) in the playoffs. Go back and look at the stats- it’s 10 guys, tops, that get all the innings that matter, ideally 8 or 9. You need someone to go west some innings when things go bad and you are flying the white flag, it this idea that we need 13 pitchers on the staff, of 6 starters, is frankly not how the playoffs work.
Here’s my only counter: I believe Dusty Baker is forced to take orders in the playoffs. They let him play his games during the regular season bc it’s just doesn’t matter- but both playoff runs with the Astros it sure as hell felt he was pushing the buttons he was told to push.
I understand Baker moving Yuli up in the order and it's showing results. At the end of the day, we've seen them struggle to score. If Click doesn't add at least two pieces, it's going to be a failure on him. Our farm system isn't as weak as the media makes it out to be. Houston is in prime position to legit win another title with their pitching. Fix holes on the offense. What the Yankees paid for Adam B. wasn't outrageous. What Seattle paid for a number 2 starter was crazy.
Minimum without rioting: add a bat of any kind that projects to >110wRC+ and a reliever. Minimum to be satisfied: add a star bat and one other complementary player.
Not trying to short change Urquidy at all. He is an important part of the staff and a valuable pitcher. I *hope* he isn't traded for just a rental or marginal upgrade. But looking back to 2021, he made 2 starts in the playoffs. Granted one was in the WS and he won but in total he made 3 appearances/2starts and won 2 games. 7 2/3's innings total in the playoffs. He's actually lower in the pecking order this year with Verlander healthy, Javier's emergence and LMJ coming back.
I’m probably in the minority, but I don’t think Click *needs* to make a trade. I mean, if the price makes sense, sure, but we’re not in a position where we *have* to make a trade. We’re in a solid position moving forward (2nd in WS odds at 15.6% per fangraphs, LAD at 16.6%, NYM 15.3%, NYY 12.9%). I wouldn’t want any trades to hinder our ability to keep JV, Tucker, and our other solid contributors. If Bell or others make sense, sure…but my point is that we don’t need to succumb to a crazy price just because. We’re in a great spot, we don’t need to add at any cost like the Mariners or other teams. I trust Click will only trade if it makes sense, not out of desperation or making a move just to make a move.
Counterpoint: For as amazing as the pitching is, it would be malpractice to not upgrade the lineup. Sure, you don’t have to trade for Josh Bell if the Nats are demanding a top 3 prospect or one of our young pitchers for a two month rental, but there’s other first basemen on the market.
I agree with you for the most part; I don’t look at this roster and see any glaring weaknesses. The bottom guys on the pitching staff (Seth Martinez and Phil Maton) have a 2.17 and 3.46 era respectively. The questionable guys on the position player side are a former 1st rd pick easing into the majors (Lee), a former 2nd rd pick who crushed AAA and has elite power (Matijevic), last year’s batting champion (Gurriel), and a guy who projects as a 3 win player in CF (Meyers). There’s nobody on the roster who doesn’t belong. And that’s with potential additions of McCullers, Brantley, and Brown looming. That said, there are enough good players available that would represent at least some form of upgrade to the roster that it’s reasonable to expect/want Houston to make some kind of move. And that combined with what the clubhouse perception would be if they stood entirely pat that they really do need to make at least one trade that brings somebody back to the big league roster.
So reliever only games in the World Series and League championships were just a figment of my imagination?
If you are going to lower the bar to 110 wRC+ bats it really should be 2 or we flip out and riot. A bat at that level costs almost nothing, and if we don’t add more than 1 of those level bats in a season we are this close it is criminal negligence. I absolutely believe (and god knows I’m not a cheerleader for Click) that we will end up with at least 2 offensive additions for where we struggle but more likely 1 move we all recognize as meaningful and 1 that’s an upgrade at the margins.
I don’t know why drury from Cincinnati isn’t being discussed more. He is rental utility player that can play infield or outfield is hitting 270 with 19 home runs. If bell is too expensive we should see what it would take for drury
The price for relievers is going to be astronomical and I’m not sure there’s anyone who really moves the needle. I’m comfortable going into October with our pitching staff as is and using our strong rotation out of the pen instead of paying and arm and a leg for whatever relievers are available. Id really only be interesting in adding an arm like Hader but doubt anyone of that caliber will be available. I agree w/ Snake and Tuck…we’ll just have to see who is available and at what price. Click obviously needs to maximize this roster’s WS odds if he can, I would just hate to see him make a move that really materially affects us negatively down the road. A lot of potential options are on the market and we do have farm pieces to trade. I just don’t think we’re sunk if the acquisition cost turns out to be too much/doesn’t make sense, and the thought of trading solidified ML pieces like Urquidy make me a tad queezy, though he did it with Straw last year.
It’s not that simple The bigger question is would that be the best offer they received In a vacuum I’m sure they would accept, but there are several teams that would like to add him
Last year 11 guys pitched in the ALDS (the 10th pitcher threw 1 inning and the 11th pitcher 0.1 innings. In the ALCS there were 3 innings- all garbage- thrown by guys below 11th in the pecking order. In the World Series there were 3 innings thrown total by pitchers behind 11th in the pitching order- also of the garbage variety. essentially- you use your top 10 pitchers and maybe an 11th guy in the postseason- and you could be 12th and I could be 13th on the leverage index and it wouldn’t matter.
