Those Sportstrac valuations are interesting, and I do think they are as good an option as any for guessing actual contract in FA. So Judge is 8/$257M. Not an unreasonable number, but he stars for the NYY, so he is going to want $300M+. I don't blame him either, as I'd expect to be the highest paid player on the team, which means getting more than Cole, and getting a deal comparable with Mookie Betts. I'd demand 10/$360M and would be stunned if the Yankees didn't end up paying it. Fangraphs valuations are just based on single season WAR, where Judge has been worth $61.7M this year. Even if the best players took 1 year deals, I'd guess only Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Jacob Degrom would actually see $50M, because few other players are as consistently great and in their primes. And even then, we've seen all 3 of those guys be hurt in recent years.
I think it depends a lot on the kind of player. For a mediocre player I would assume the $/WAR would be lower than for a star player given the different market dynamics involved for each. Moreover, the 4th, 5th, 6th, etc., WAR a given player provides is going to be more valuable than the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. In other words, one 4 WAR player is worth more than two 2 WAR players even if the cumulative costs are the same.
WAR isn't as linear once you start getting closer to 0, but 2 WAR is far enough away that 2 2-WAR players should be treated as the same value as a 4-WAR player for teams that care about costs. While 2 2-WAR MLB players aren't traded for a 4-WAR MLB player, a prospect(s) with expected WAR spread out over 7 years is traded a lot for an MLB player of similar WAR value compacted over 1-2 years (granted there is a premium as WAR today is treated as more valuable than WAR years from now). Needing more players to produce the same WAR is taken into account by removing the value of a replacement level player. The Angels have accumulated -8 WAR from below replacement level players because it is a lot harder to fill in roster spots with limited 40-man roster spots, without money, and without MLB-ready prospects than most think.
I can see that incrementally, WAR values increase as they get higher since there are only a limited number of players. You can't replace 9-4 WAR position players with 18 2-WAR position players.
Correa wasn't a Yankee. The Astros don't have the same pressure the Yankees have to re-sign Judge. The Yankees will end up paying what it costs to keep him. That isn't to say he won't sign elsewhere, but it will be because he decided not to let the Yankees match. Would not surprise me at all if he ended up with the Mets.
How about a progression of: Neg to 1 WAR 1M <$1M 1-2 WAR 2M $2M-$4M 2-3 WAR 3M $6M-$9M 3-4 WAR 4M $12M-$16M 4-5 WAR 5M $20M-$25M 5+ WAR 6M $30M+
Just a thought. JV 2-$77M plus $38.5M Player option for year 3 with 100 IP and a $10M buyout. Will be counted as $43.5M AAV for 2 years leaving some extra flexibility beyond 2024 and reduces 2025 AAV by $10M if he exercises his option. This exceeds the Scherzer in AAV 2-years and COLE if he exercises his option. If he maintains a similar dominance, just negotiate another extension.
funny thing is the Angels have plenty of money. Their team payroll this year is about $3m behind the Astros. (10th vs the Astros 8th highest) They just spend their money incredibly poorly. They are baseball embodiment of “the greater fool”. They’re the ones that pay top-of-the-market prices for late prime players and get underwater value when those players get injured or naturally decline. They could spend $40m less per season less on the major league club, put towards the draft, IFA, and scouting/admin human capital and they’d be a much better team. Interestingly, Arte Moreno announced he’s selling the team, so change will come.
It would take a lot more than $5M/yr to move to NYC or LA. That doesn't even account for tax differences, much less the horrible lifestyle and COL..
2023 Pitching: resign JV in neighborhood of $40-45M. Length doesn't matter for 2023. Resign Mancini to a 3-4 yr deal at $15-17AAV. Trade Luis Garcia, J.J. Matijevic, Enoli Paredes, Peter Solomon, and Cristian Gonzalez to the A's for Seth Brown and Sean Murphy. A's like MLB ready players and prospects as opposed to younger further away but higher rated ones. This clears out catcher for Langeliers. They get a solid #2 or #3 starter, a #5 starter, a promising bullpen arm, a replacement for Brown, and a high ceiling young infield prospect. Astros get a LH hitting 1B and starting catcher. Rotation: JV, Framber, McCullers, Javier, Urquidy, H.Brown. Bullpen: Pressly, Neris, Stanek, Abreu, S.Martinez and 2 others from the current options. C) Murphy 67%, Maldy 33% 1B) Brown 60%, Mancini 40% 2B) Altuve 3B) Bregman SS) Pena LF) McCormick 45%, Alvarez 35%, Brown 20% CF) Meyers or Leon ( competition) RF) Tucker DH) Alvarez 60%, Mancini 40% Bench: Dubon and Hensley.
Great plan! I would also try to get Scott Barlow from KC to add to the bullpen. Since we got Murphy for C, maybe Korey Lee since he'd be blocked, and KC seems to plan on converting Melendez to the OF, and giving Salvy more games at DH to preserve his knees.
So you're saying the Yankees and Mets have stupid owners? I would agree with the Mets and used to with George, but the Yankees have become more reasonable under Hal which is easy to do.
I think the Mets owner cares about winning and sticking it to the Yankees more than money right now (it will change eventually and they'll go back to being the Mets). Cole for 9/$324 Took on Stanton's contract They also paid Dj LeMahieu & Aaron Hicks. The CBT has really changed the game to where teams like the Yankees feel more pressure to not face the 3 time repeat tax. So yeah they aren't going to spend unlimited amounts of money, but they will keep Judge and trade away other guys if they have to in order to get under the CBT threshold in 2024 (and technically they don't shouldn't need to make trades for that to happen). When is the last time the Yankees lost a star FA? Didi Gregorius is the closest I can see in recent history, but they had Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu who were both all-stars at that point, so they had little use for him. And to be clear, the Yankees have the most valuable franchise. They should be capable of spending more than other franchises. They are in the biggest market and face severe fan pressure. A team like the Astros, doesn't have that same pressure, especially since it has made long-term commitments to 2 home grown players already in Altuve and Bregman.
Teams that produce the same amount of WAR win about the same amount of games regardless of how the WAR is accumulated. As long as a team has a few stars, wanting a 4-WAR player or two 2-WAR players is going to depend if they are going to be able to play a positive or negative value player in the other position with the 4-WAR player. While there are 2-3 teams at most every year that are so deep that additional 2-WAR players aren't very helpful, the other teams greatly outnumber them and tend to set the market.
When I said without money, I was meaning they have already spent it stupidly. They don't have that much less money obligated over the next 4 years than the Astros, and the Astros have such a better team that it is comical the budgets are that close. They have a small hope of being able to tie things together next season, but after that small hope gets crushed, they look dead in the water.
Setup Man Options: Zack Britton David Robertson Kenley Jansen Craig Kimbrel Edwin Diaz Corey Knebel Taylor Rogers Andrew Chafin Robert Suarez Michael Fulmer Trevor Rosenthal Adam Ottavino Rafael Montero 1B Options: Josh Bell Yuli Mancini Brandon Belt Jose Abreu Miguel Sano Carlose Santana Jake Lamb Colin Moran Wilmer Flores Wil Myers CF Option: Kevin Kiermaier Kike Hernandez Kevin Pillar Adam Duvall LF Options: Wil Myers Aaron Judge (lol) Brantley Andrew Benintendi Mitch Haniger Brandon Nimmo Joey Gallo Tommy Pham Tyler Naquin David Peralta Corey Dickerson Joc Pederson Personally I'd target Britton (though I think he stays in NY), Duvall, and Mancini. Plenty of good LF options. Target guys that take 1-2 year deals under $10M/season.
With Pressly and Neris on high AAV contracts ( for RP anyway) and Stanek ( and Maton if he's kept) in arb 3 year I think the bullpen budget is pretty tapped out. There are 7 bullpen spots ( figuring 6 spots filled by starters even if 1 is in long relief) I see Pressly, Neris, Stanek, Abreu, and Seth Martinez as locks. That leaves 2 spots for: Maton, Paredes, Mushinski, Taylor, Blanco, Dubin, Solomon, Scrubb, France, Record, and who ever else from the minors you can think of. I do think Solomon replaces Bielak as the AAAA emergency starter as he and James are simply getting too expensive to be tendered at their current performance levels.
