One of the factors going forward are higher arbitration awards/bypasses which substantially change cap space. Wild Guess Estimates Cat. (2022) 2023 est. CC1 $720K Min CC2 $720K Min Pena ($700,000) Meyers ($719,600) Goodrum ($2,100,000) Martinez (700,000) Lee ($700,000) CC3 $720K Min McCormick ($703,800) $750,000 Abreu ($719,600) $750,000) Arb1 Tucker ($764,200) Urquidy ($748,700) Javier (749,100) Dubon ($715,000) Valdez (S2) ($3,000,000) Garcia (S2?) ($1,251,500) $1,500,000 Arb2 Stanek ($2,100,000 Maton ($1,550,000) Arb3 Arb4 I know some of these are messed up, so please suggest corrections.
I've considered a blending between those who like ERA+ and WHIP. Since better is higher in ERA+ and lower in WHIP. The easiest combination is simply to divide the ERA+ by the WHIP. This is the result for the Astros (several days old): updated Verlander 225.9 224.7 Javier 127.8 134.4 Valdez 125.3 124.5 McCullers INF 112.0 Urquidy 91.9 91.9 Garcia 80.8 80.8 Pressly 154.2 160.0 Stanek 284.6 219.9 Abreu 136.0 139.0 Montero 135.1 135.6 Neris 122.6 117.7 Maton 74.8 63.7 Smith 50.7 59.9 What do you think?
It’s a sliding scale. Believing in Brown when you have the other guys we do in the top 5 ahead of him (even with Framber out in a hypothetical trade) just means you think he can be a credible MLB starter flashing upside for more. JV/LMJ/Javier/Urquidy/Garcia- even without Brown, is a top 10 rotation for sure (if healthy), most likely top 5, and some health and continued development away from top 3 behind Mets and Dodgers and on par with the Braves. It would make the rotation much less deep if Brown doesn’t hit. You’d really have to feel like you were solving CF for at least 3 years to do that deal. I wouldn’t be opposed for the right guy. if I was the Angels, for example, I’d do Trout for Framber, Garcia and my favorite of Leon, Chas and Meyer. I wonder if the Astros would do that. Would leave the Astros with something like this: JV/LMJ/Javier/Urquidy/Brown- 55 million Presley, Abreu, Stanek, Neris, Maton, Martinez, Mush, Whitley- 35 million Maldy/JJ/Altuve/Peña/Bregman- 60 million Alvarez/Trout/Tucker- 60 million Meyers/Chas/Dubon/Lee/Jones- 4 million. $215,000,000 salary Serious step back in depth in the rotation Definite below league average at C Jones/JJ position isn’t covering itself in glory at 1B but could be cheap and league average, Above average to all star at 2B/SS/3B. 2 MVP candidates in the OF, platoon of Meyers and Chas should be above league average if Meyers is healthy- league average if they just have to go with Chas, and then Yordan MVP level at DH. Angels could save 30 million a year while adding an Allstate pitcher with 3 years of control, a solid #3 type with 4 years of control and a fringe top 100 prospect type CF in Leon, or a solid CF type in Chas if they wanted to go that direction. Boy- I’d do that deal if I was the Astros and I locked up JV for something like 3/105 but that’d be a big swing as Trout hasn’t been the paragon of health lately, it probably does away with any chance at a Tucker extension, and puts a lot of pressure on development for starting pitchers, or you better be really lucky with injuries. I just couldn’t pass up the chance to trot out a Tucker/Trout/Yordan lineup.
The Angels would laugh at that. Wouldn’t even consider making a counter. If Trout was on the market, this wouldn’t even be a starting offer.
Even if he was on the market, no way do they even entertain trading him in the division. IMO, IF Trout ever plays for a team other than the Angels (and that is a BIG if), I can only see the Phillies.
Cool. Maybe so. I’d do that deal if I was the angels in a vacuum. Trout is great. He’s played in 3 playoff games in his career, he’s making 40 million or something a year from now until eternity, their pitching is always shitty etc. they’d be a better team with Framber making 5 million, Garcia making 720k and Chas or Leon making 700k next year, plus whatever they spent that extra 34 million on they have lying around after trading him. Their rotation could be Ohtani/Framber/Garcia/Sandoval/Rodon as a for example- with that Trout savings. That rotation makes the playoffs. The Astros would be sending out way more surplus value than Trout brings back to them. I’m sure Anaheim isn’t trading him. I also bet they keep missing the playoffs with him. Shrugs. I’m not saying trade Framber at all. I’m saying I’d be open to finding out what he could bring (hint- it’s likely a shitload) just like I’d be open to seeing what it took to extend him for 5 years.
The Phillies don’t develop for ****. They don’t have anything cheap and guaranteed to be good that the Angels should be looking for in a Trout trade. I predicted the Soto trade at the beginning of the year because it made too much sense not to happen. Stood by that when they said they weren’t trading him. Feel the exact same way about how the Angels SHOULD trade Trout (don’t believe they will though). This would be the off-season to do it while Ohtani is still making peanuts. The Angels are a dumb franchise btw.
While it is still rare, athletes turn down offers they eventually regret turning down because of arrogance and agents.
No way the Astros do this. If the Astros are going to spend ~$300M on a player, they are just going to do it in free agency on someone like Judge, and keep Framber, Garcia, whoever the Angels prefer of those three. Granted, the Astros aren't likely to spend ~$300M on a player. The Angels might not do this trade, but that is because they are idiots. Considering what the Mariners gave up for 1.5 years of Castillo, flipping Framber by himself to a team like the Yankees or Dodgers would rebuild their farm more than Trout would get.
the Angels with Trout and Ohtani not making the playoffs probably still makes more money than a mediocre playoff team with just Ohtani. Plus if Ohtani leaves in a few years that team literally has no draw.
Astros should make a new offer to Correa for 9-$180M. $180M frozen but it adds 3 years just because he turned 6-$180M down the first time. In the unlikely event ha accepts, move him to 3B and Bregman to 1B to reflect arm strength among the infielders and retain the quick twitch skills at 1B. IF Correa 3B, Pena SS, Altuve 2B and Bregman 1B. Vasquez primary C and Maldy takes over as Manager and convinces Vasquez to stay. Mancini takes over the Brantley role sharing time in LF and DH with Yordan. Tucker cemented in RF. Now blow the budget for Judge in CF. Correa $20M AAV, Vasquez $16M AAV, Mancini $16M AAV and Judge $32M AAV. = $84M minus Greinke $12.5M and JV $25M or $37.5M for a net increase of $46.5M. Rotation SP1 Framber $6M SP2 Javier $2M SP3 McCullers $17M SP4 Urquidy $2M SP5 Garcia $1M SP6 Brown 720K CL Pressly $15M RP1 Abreu $1M RP2 Neris $8.5M RP3 Stanek $2.5M RP4 Maton $ $1.8M RP5 Martinez $1M RP6 Dubin $750K RP7 Solomon $750K C Vasquez $16M 1B Bregman $29M 2B Altuve $23.4M 3B Correa $20M SS Pena $740K LF/DH Alvarez $19.2M CF Rogers $32M RF Tucker $3M DH/LF/1B Mancini $20M Bench C Lee $750k OF Brantley $10M IF Hensley $750K SU Dubon $1M $235.87M Active Roster.
Yeah- you and I are on the same page, but not super surprised the first reply was basically acting like I was a. Idiot for suggesting a preposterous trade when it would actually be pretty beneficial for the angels. I actually suspect if he were on the open market he might not fetch a **** ton unless the Angels were throwing in money- but if they were throwing in money why bother moving him? I feel like both teams would have a serious meeting about it, think it through and both would say no.
32 million is way light for judge (and he’s not signing here) unless you are giving him 10 years or something to keep the AAV down. 10 million on Brantley is absurd- he’s done dude. If I was going to make Judge an offer and I was OK with moving on from JV it would be something like 10/350 figuring I’d just eat the last 5 years of the contract or 2/120 or 3/160 or something like that and figure I’d just go all in right now. If JV is gone I’d offer Carlos 10- 250 easy peasy and move Bregman to first- like that setup. we aren’t going that high- what you have to remember is that payroll taxes and per firms are figured in so to stay under the tax line you can only go to about $215. I don’t hate this roster though.
So you basically just want the Astros to be troll jerks and make a genuinely disrespectful offer to Correa?
It was outside the box thinking which is often met with ridicule. But I agree that both would say no for various reasons. I do find every free agent valued at $40M/yr ridiculous. I remember trying to prove Berkman was a $15M/yr player on another site not that long ago.
I was just going by Spotrac valuations. They are very limited at this rime. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/free-agents/ ps The quick value of 8M per WAR seem too high for an average. I'd go with $5.5M as a CAP.
So the $8,000,000 figure is average cost of WAR on the open market. Development is cheaper obviously.
