You said that nearly 100% of WS winning teams would never use more than 9 pitchers outside of white-flag surrender games. I showed that the Braves used more than that in just 4 games WS winning games, ignoring all the other wins and the losses (surrendered or not). But let's take it further. In other Braves wins during the postseason, they used: Chavez Ynoa Webb Smyly In a game they lost to the Astros, they also started Davidson (meaning they hadn't surrendered the game yet). That puts the Braves at 15 pitchers in wins and competitive losses.
As a fan based we have become so jaded. We need to realize that these pitchers that are being contemplated as bring left off the playoffs are mostly above league average pitchers with better than average results this year.
What do you think of a short term FA deal (like Brantley) for Jose Abreu? He is usually very dependable. But at 36 in 2023, he might not generate as much demand for a high AAV deal. Or do you think signing with the White Sox is a certainty?
I'd be pretty surprised if he didn't end up resigning in Chicago. The ChiSox probably won't have to break the bank to resign him. He's had a lot of career success there and is the elder statesman of the Cuban contingent there (Yasmani Grandal, Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada). It might be awkward for him to replace Gurriel, who is revered in Cuban baseball. That being said, I'd take him on a 2/3 year deal in a heartbeat. His game power has dropped significantly since his MVP season 2 years ago, but he's still a phenomenal hitter. If they could milk a few 2021 Gurriel seasons out of him, that'd be a coup. The question for him (as with every FA) is how big of a ring-chaser is he. The Stros aren't gonna overpay.
This is fantasy, not a suggestion. Pretend Crane authorized an extra $100M to the payroll. Option 1: Retain JV and Acquire Judge to play CF/RF. TOR JV/Difference making Position Player. Option 2: Trade for Ohtani and extend Tucker. Take on Trouts contract for one year of Ohtani as LAA tears down to rebuild. Players must agree. Ohtani to DH/TOR Pitcher; Alvarez to LF full time; Trout to CF, Tucker secure. Which fantasy do you prefer?
I Calculated the astros pitching staffs War per 9 innings to statistically find the best playoff rotation and pen last night. No surprises but this is what I found. War per 9 Innings Starters 4 .30 Justin Verlander .19 Framber Valdez .17 Cristian Javier .15 Lance McCullers Relievers 9 .21 Ryan Pressly .21 Hector Neris .20 Rafael Montero .20 Bryan Abreu .16 Ryne Stanek .11 Luis Garcia .08 Jose Urquidy 12th man Situational by Series I was a little surprised to find Valdez so far behind JV, and that Lance did not fare a little better considering his results since returning. Also how closely bunched our best relievers are. I did not include Brown due to a lack of game data but would not oppose him as the 12th man in the divisional series.
I applaud your attempt to convert a COUNT stat (WAR) into a RATE stat. I must admit a little confusion after Jordan's WAR jumped so much last week this late in the season. 5.0 to 6.6. At least part is due to the fall of his dWAR (LF) to near Replacement level. -0.5 to -0.1.
But but but... according to some of this thread... he is expendable and we need to trade him for OF help.
Just need to pray for good health while keeping the team in rhythm. First day of ALDS is October 11... last day of regular season is October 5 and a day game. Will Smith has turned things around quite a bit, so I wouldn't be surprised if he claims a spot and knocks out whoever is underperforming the next two weeks among Garcia and Urquidy. I think we go heavy on position players due to the rest days available in the playoffs.
I have changed my thoughts a little bit. I think that Verlander coming back is essentially a done deal. 1) I don't think he wants to be viewed as a mercenary playing for multiple teams to finish his career. 2) Jim Crane likes and wants him. 3) The Astros give him as good a chance to get Ws and win more rings as anyone out there. It will take a multi year $35M+ AAV deal but would be very very surprised if it doesn't happen.. That means that with: Tucker, Framber, Javier, Urquidy, Stanek, Maton, Dubon as well as Blake Taylor, Josh James, and Bielak all being arbitration eligible then there really isn't money to sign a big bat for 1B or CF/LF. With JV returning and Brown's emergence the team must use the depth in the rotation to fill that hole. I would use JV, Framber, McCullers, Javier, and Brown as primary 5 in the rotation and keep Urquidy when a 6th starter is needed. Trade Garcia for a controllable 1B or CF/LF who can improve and deepen the lineup. Because there are more outfielders in AAA than 1B who could potentially make the team to fill the spot, I would prefer a 1B. I like Rys Hoskins. Maybe Nate Lowe or Seth Brown ( Ty France but Seattle would not trade him) but would hate to see Garcia traded within the division.
Playoff rosters expand to 26 players. You think Astros will go with 13 pitchers? You have 11. What other two do you put on there? Hunter Brown? Postseason roster rules Teams submit a 26-man roster (it was 25, prior to 2020) prior to each round of the postseason comprised of postseason-eligible players. A
The Astros radio team mentioned that Seth Martinez could be an option in the playoffs if the opponent is Toronto since he is death to righties. I think in the ALDS the team brings 12 pitchers. JV Framber McCullers Javier Pressly Stanek Montero Abreu Neris Are complete locks. Urquidy or Garcia must be included for length. I think the other 2 spots will be decided based on the matchup.. Smith Maton Martinez Brown Urquidy or Garcia
