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[2022 NBA Draft/1-3] Jabari Smith Jr., F, Auburn

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by J.R., Jun 23, 2022.

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Do you like the selection of Jabari Smith?

Poll closed Jun 23, 2023.
  1. YES

    89.7%
  2. NO

    10.3%
  1. Verbal Christ

    Verbal Christ Member

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    Jabari has all the tools to be WAY BETTER than PJ Tucker both as a defender and shooter. PJ has the heart and tenacity to succeed as a smaller front court player - that is what Jabari has to develop to be great. The reality is that a good portion of 'great' NCAA shooters struggle their first year(s) in the league. A longer 3 ball mixed in with way better defenders. Many college guys are just able to use their athleticism to dominate at that level - Jabari's game is not based on that - its a more technical type of play which just requires the court time and chemistry with his teammates. I'm not calling into question his future or anything of the sort for me to give you examples of similar players who flamed out OR feasted within the same archetype. I just found your hyperbole curious. For what its worth I also believe that James Harden would provide the elite gravity for players like Jabari, Jalen, KPJ and others to thrive, but each of those guys has to finish what James sets up and as of today we dont really have consistent play finishers. That should get better with experience.

    edit: this seems to be a decent data crunch on the topic albeit a bit outdated: https://toddwschneider.com/posts/nba-vs-ncaa-basketball-shooting-performance/
     
    #6341 Verbal Christ, Mar 21, 2023
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2023
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  2. AroundTheWorld

    Supporting Member

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    Garuba can be better than Tucker, at everything.

    Jabari can do more.
     
  3. J Sizzle

    J Sizzle Member

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    Just looks more confident. Still passing up too many open looks that I'd prefer he just let fly, but he looks way better. Good to see.
     
  4. Tuckmose

    Tuckmose Member

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    Evan Mobley, who everyone agrees had a great rookie year, ended his season with nearly identical TS% to Jalen Green, 54.7% vs 54.9%.

    Different players, and Mobley’s three is a much greater Work In Progress than Jabari’s, but young bigs guided to do anything other than rim-running will struggle with efficiency.

    As for a teenage, offensively versatile big who put up objectively efficient numbers in his rookie year, Karl Anthony Towns. 18 a game on 59% TS, unanimous RotY.
     
    highpost1388 likes this.
  5. Houston77

    Houston77 COOKIES AND CAKE, MY TEAM BAKED!
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    Jabari has definitely had a nice stretch of games. The last ten games, he’s averaged nearly 17 points with 8 boards while shooting 50%+ FG and 40%+ from 3. Not too shabby. Had those been his numbers all season, he’s been fighting Paolo for ROTY.
     
  6. DatRocketFan

    DatRocketFan Member

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    Not saying he would b RoY contender if he had an actual coach who did the bare minimum to make his rookies life easier, but silas as his coach basically eliminate him from the race from the start.

    Smith was role-playing as a scarecrow on offense at the 3 pt line for a good part of the season.
     
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  7. highpost1388

    highpost1388 Member

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    Man it's a bad habit of mine to forget about KAT like... all the time. I don't even know why, he's a really good player and it's like he barely exists in my mind. Thanks for reminding me of that! Kentucky might be struggling now, but so many of their bigs and guards come in NBA ready it seems.

    Yeah I would definitely steer clear of comparing guards to bigs with TS and stuff like that, like you said, two different players. I saw a debate about Paolo vs. Jalen Williams for rookie of the year and it was talking a lot about efficiency vs role on the team, Paolo having to be the guy vs Jalen playing off SGA.

    I think it's hard to always know the nuance when we only get to watch one team play regularly, maybe two. I've seen the other rookies play just a handful of times, but we have to sit through all of Jabari's struggles for 30 minutes a game. I saw some highlights of Paolo early in the season (I always hoped he fell to 3 for the record) and was amazed. I can't imagine sitting there watching him shoot 3% from 3 in February though. If that was Jabari? Whooo boy, this place would explode lol. I watched the Magic the other day though and Paolo shoulders a ton of he load on offense (similar to Jalen last year) and it's nice to see him get his flowers and have that context presented to people even though they didn't do it for Jalen. Being a teenager and the focal point of defenses in the NBA can be soul crushing I'd imagine.
     
  8. Bobbythegreat

    Bobbythegreat Member
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    It doesn't. The criteria is different for each.
     
  9. SamFisher

    SamFisher Contributing Member

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    https://theathletic.com/4330821/2023/03/21/rockets-jalen-green-scoot-miller/


    Prior to the All-Star break, Jabari Smith Jr. was in the midst of a rough rookie season. Over the last handful of games, he’s looked closer to the prospect you evaluated for months — a lengthy, confident two-way big with staying power in this league.


    Has his recent resurgence given you renewed hope of his future career arc? Or were some of his early-season struggles overblown and a byproduct of Houston’s season?

    Vecenie: No, Smith’s struggles throughout the first two-thirds of the season were real and they were his own. He seemed to lose confidence in his jumper. This was an elite shooter at lower levels and at Auburn last year who went through a 33-game stretch from Dec. 15 to March 1 where he made 21.4 percent of his 3s, many of which were wide-open shots. We can play the blame game as much as we want, between coach Stephen Silas not drawing up plays for him and the guards for not always getting him the ball. But Smith — a prospect who is currently beholden to his ability to shoot jumpers — wasn’t taking the opportunities given to do what he’s best at. That’s on him. We can make excuses, and Smith did some positive things while he was working through his offensive struggles on the defensive end of the court. But there does need to be some accountability too, teenager playing his first NBA season or not.

    I’m still confident Smith is going to turn out fine. He’s one of the youngest players in the NBA and should be able to adjust things further this offseason to work on his game. The ballhandling concerns that were there pre-draft still exist, and are why he’s more likely to be a third option offensively as opposed to a top option. He needs to improve his comfort level there so he’s not as reliant on others to get shots for him. But when you mix that with what should be terrific floor-spacing and shooting from deep, along with what will be switchable on-ball defense and terrific help defense when he’s in his early-to-mid-20s, that’s probably a top-50 player leaguewide. I’d still feel like that projection was reasonable if I was Houston, even with his poor play to start his career.​
     
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  10. invocux

    invocux Member

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    Well he will get hurt...badly..more than once.
     
  11. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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  12. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Yeah.... top 50? You certainly hope for more than that out of the top 3 in a draft.

    Let's wait and see. Vecenie is better than most draft pundits, and I was never a huge Jabari fan in college, but I think that he is capable of being better than top 50.
     
  13. Mathloom

    Mathloom Contributing Member

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    Say he ends up like John Collins with significantly better defense and slightly better shooting. Maybe like Ryan Anderson but very good at defending SF/PF/C. These are modest predictions in my opinion. I would pay $30m per year for that player (people say Collins is on a good contract @ $23m). That would be an excellent return on investment for a #3 pick.

    Wouldn't you pay $30m for that type of player?
     
  14. New Jack

    New Jack Member

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    With how deep the NBA is now, I'd be pretty satisfied with a top 50 player. This list has Brandon Ingram as the 50th best player in the league and he's averaging 23.5 ppg on 48/40/87 shooting

    https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/...a-battle-for-no-1-lebron-slips-out-of-top-10/

     
  15. Nook

    Nook Member

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    The short answer is it depends.

    How much better defensively?

    Jabari has a pretty high floor because he can defend so well when engaged, and he will improve as a shooter.

    The only substantial limitation with him is ball handling.

    He has had, overall a bad year but when you watch him play, it is clear it isn't an ability issue.
     
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  16. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    Mr Smith is 4th all time in 3 pointers for a 19 year old now. Will move to 2nd by end of the season ahead of Luka and behind Anthony Edwards. Not bad for a tall guy hopefully he brings up the % next season.
     
  17. Mathloom

    Mathloom Contributing Member

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    How much better defensively is hard to quantify but I can tell you that if we had both Collins and Jabari, I'm pretty certain Jabari at 19 would already be the more effective defender on an opponent's best player no matter what size. That's a massive gap. This is Jabari's rookie season. Personally I think Jabari is a career All-Defense team guy. I can see him being on many of those. He cares about defense, he never stops giving effort, has great physical tools for it. All the ingredients for a great defender are in place. I can't even imagine him not caring about defense. He cares about defense on a team coached by Silas with no chance of winning most nights. He's remarkable to me.

    I see Jabari as a switchable PF/C so I don't really have any concerns about his ball handling. He's about average at ball handling for a 4/5 type. I would rather invest in developing a hook shot than the ball handling. Turnaround J in the post is important too. You really just need a stable/efficient scoring alternative to the 3pter, that's what his game needs right now. This kid is going to put on serious muscle, I can see it. I think they just happened to promote him as a 3/4 before entered the league and that's left us with this legacy concern about his ballhandling. The best alternative to having handles is to be elite on the catch, so there's that too.
     
  18. OremLK

    OremLK Member

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    Kid sure isn't afraid to shoot them. You could argue that's a bad thing since his percentage hasn't been so good, but in a developmental season I think it's good for him to get the reps at game time and get used to the NBA 3P line. He's flashed enough that I feel confident he will be at worst an above average 3P shooter in the long term.
     
  19. peleincubus

    peleincubus Member

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    If this was a normal season he would definitely shot less. With how things are it would have been unprecedented for someone to shoot that much make a good % doing it. Especially even more at his height (that is not wha nba has done with guys ever at his height) times are different though.

    If he seemingly improves it sure seems like he could turn into the taller klay Thompson like I and some others envisioned. Would be a highly valuable and cohesive player if you want to win a championship.
     
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  20. carl_herrera

    carl_herrera Member

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    Top 50 is great. That’s like 3rd best player on a championship contender level. We should be ecstatic if Jabari is looking like that.
     
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