It all goes back to that Trump was not happy that McCain refused to bow down to him and also that McCain voted no to repeal the ACA.
eventually u become the little boy who cried wolf, and we passed that point a long time ago…these losers have been screaming fraud for so long the response from most of the country is basically “cool story bro, anyways…U watch the game last night?”
It's unfortunately not that weird when it all stems from the personal animus of an idiot that these other idiots feel obligated to follow.
Yeah, but that personal animus is part of what's strange. McCain was a known commodity. Trump took insult in the kind of things that were the expected outcome of what McCain would normally do. Yet, Trump got so mad and started a war over it all. Of course, followers took it up and carried it on.
Pollster Frank Luntz admits he was wrong. One thing he does point out is that the polls might've been weighted too much to address a hidden Republican vote. He also says we shouldn't be relying on polls to determine what happens in the future. One part I found interesting is that Republicans this year got some 5 million more votes in the House races than Democrats. The reason might be that redistricting has created so many safe districts that Democrats didn't both to compete but at the same time didn't create enough truly competitive districs that could be flipped like what we saw in NY. I'm guessing this likely won't change GOP state legislators minds about redistricting but is something for both parties to consider. That in order to win the House you actually need competititve districts.
In this case it would be a victory based on history (typically the mid-terms with a new President are terrible), the current economy and the opinion polling of the President. The fact that the Democrats kept the Senate, and possibly added onto their majority, slightly, is a major victory. Further, the House has been nearly as bad as expected, especially with Republicans being better at Gerrymandering. If by some miracle, the Democrats keep the house, it will be a massive victory for the Democrats. I don't think that voters are saying they are happy with the Democrats, I think that it is that voters are sick of the over-reach of the Supreme Court and the stupid MAGA and Election denier non-sense from the Republicans.
This is probably the most worthless tweet or mode of thought that I have heard in a long time. It is very similar to the "Thoughts and prayers!" crap that people throw out after a terrible personal tragedy. No, sorry Mrs. Romano; pretty sure the inflation world-wide and the war in Ukraine are the result of decisions made by men in positions of power.
The thing I found most interesting is how much Frank LOLuntz wanted everybody to focus on the future ... and forget how much he blew it with his 2022 predictions. What a self serving piece if ****.
Looks like Prop 308 (in-state tuition and financial aid for undocumented students) is going to pass in Arizona. Prop 309 (Voter ID) is concurrently on track to fail. These types of results really highlight that Arizona's electorate is fundamentally changing. Kari Lake spent much of her campaign talking about the invasion of illegal immigrants across the southern border and yet the electorate is on the verge of extending in state tuition and state financial aid to undocumented students. Arizona is rapidly trending towards the left. Republicans better start nominating normal people there or the Dems will pick up the legislature there in a few years (as well as a majority of House seats).
This will change as the counting goes on. Everyone forgets about elections once they are called, but especially in CA, the actual final count takes many weeks. And these early numbers change. I don't know what the final result will be, but I doubt GOP will end up winning by 5 million votes. That said, in the past, it's always been the reverse - an even popular vote would lead to a GOP house, so it would be an interesting shift. GOP +5 million votes was the margin in 2010 and 2014 which were solid GOP wave elections. Both times, GOP ended up with 240+ seats.
I would just say that taking out the polls by GOP outfits, the polling was as accurate as ever this time around.
these polls completely underestimated the importance of the abortion issue to an almost laughable degree as if people were gonna be like "U know that abortion issue I felt so strongly about over the summer? Well, it's November now, and meh." the amount of women and young people that we saw getting registered to vote, it wasn't for no reason majority of people are not in favor of having rights taken away and being transported 50 years back in time
I would say the same thing applied to DeSantis' race too and unfortunately to Abbott's race too. The race I'm most disappointed in is the WI Senate race. Given that Evers won the governorship it really seems like just a little more effort might've pushed Barnes over the top.
These numbers are skewed because so many people do not live in competitive districts. A lot of people simply did not bother to show up and vote because the outcome was foretold. For all I know, more Republicans than Democrats stayed home, however I do know that it did impact voters. I am living in Chicago right now and know a number of people that did not vote on both sides of the political spectrum because the outcome was known. Why vote if you live in most of Illinois, especially if you live in rural Illinois or Cook County. If you live in Cook County, you know that all local positions will be filled by Democrats and the state-wide elections are going to be Democrats as well based on history and polling. If you live in rural Illinois, you know that all the local positions will be filled by Republicans, but all the state-wide elections will be Democrats because there are too many votes in Cook County. There are exceptions in places like Wisconsin and a handful of competitive states when it comes to state-wide elections and some congressional districts, but less than ever before because of gerrymandering and regional politics becoming more set in stone. This obviously doesn't apply everywhere in the country, but big parts of it. Sometimes there are surprises, like New Yorkers punishing Democrats that were be flagrant with their abuse of powe, but not most.
I was looking into this since I can't quite figure it out. Can't use raw number as the base # of votes changes over time. 2010- GOP +6.8 pts. 242-193 (GOP +49) 2012- GOP -1.1 pts. 234-201 (GOP +33) // due to massive 2010 GOP partisan gerrymandering // 2014- GOP +5.7 pts. 247-188 (GOP +59) 2016- GOP +1.1 pts. 241-194 (GOP +47) 2018- DEM +8.6 pts. 235-199 (GOP -36) 2020- DEM +3.1 pts. 222-213 (GOP -9) 2022- TBD, so far: GOP +4.9 pts. 212-206 (GOP +6) // might end up ~+3 pts with GOP ~+3 Popular congressional vote is at best a fair guesstimate of the house makeup. Factors that impact outcome or relationship between popular votes and house makeup includes partisan gerrymandering (packing is a good example of how to "waste" votes of one party), # of competitive races and the outcome of those, and # of non-competitive races. I think the 2022 factors are 1) DEM did a much better job protecting their turf on partisan gerrymandering (they would have done better if the SCOTUS didn't block the illegal map in FL, LA, and AL through shadow docket to stay decisions ordering additional district favorable to DEM). And 2) GOP has more uncompetitive districts, DEM won more of the toss-up districts. It would have been very nice if GOP lose the House with a +5pts result (not going to happen) just so that maybe some of their voters understand how undemocratic partisan gerrymandering is. 2022 National House Vote Tracker | Cook Political Report
It really is pretty fascinating. The only thing I would add is that the gerrymandering is done based on partisanship, but it can't account for shifts in voting patterns. For example, you can gerrymander Republicans or white people, but you can't gerrymander women. So if GOP/Independent women lurched left due to abortion, all the gerrymandering to make a 55/45 GOP district might flop.
