Newsom is a massive douche and a Californian, which is a negative to a lot of people. I don't know if he has national appeal. I would absolutely vote for Whitmer; she's a babe.
I would point to Pence as a reason for DeSantis to avoid Trump. He was as loyal as could be, even groveling for Trump at times. As soon as he wasn't willing to overturn an election for him, he become enemy #1 for Trump and the entire GOP. Trump vs. DeSantis is going to get very ugly and I don't think DeSantis can beat Trump in a primary (thus my early prediction that Trump will make sure DeSantis isn't President) since Trump will happily go scorched earth, while DeSantis has to not piss off true MAGA. But a couple of routes forward: 1. Let Trump have the nomination in 2024, hope he loses the general, and then be the GOP savior in 2028. But a lot can change in 6 years, so who knows what his standing is by then, so he'd have to gamble on his staying power. 2. Hope Trump has an ego check this week and decides not to run. This seems unlikely:
Cults don't disappear unless a comet flies by. I am hoping that the Republican party goes back to the party of old.
This would 100% be my pick right now on the Dem side. Whitmer is a star. That or Whitmer-Tim Ryan. Ryan and Barnes losing are my two biggest disappointments so far. Ron Johnson needed to be gone, and Tim Ryan is basically the perfect Dem to recover some white voters, but he just ran in the wrong state with a strong GOPer at the top of the ticket for Governor. Edit: that and Kari Lake if she wins. 100% election denier in a position to do something with it.
Definitely might. It's just that there's a chance it won't. AZ looks more likely for Dems in the Senate race than even the Governor's race, but not for sure, yet. NV is up in the air, but Republicans absolutely have a shot at taking that one. It could come down the GA runoff, but it might just be the difference between 50 and 51 Democrats. If that's the case then Dems might have an advantage. I know people are down on Abrams for her GA performance. But she wasn't running against an election denier. So that was against her. She still is good at turning out the vote for Democratic candidates and the party would do well to take advantage of her skills in a run off election.
Update on state legislatures: 1. Minnesota and Michigan both get Democratic Trifectas 2. Dems have a good shot at flipping the house in PA and NH 3. Odds are looking better for a Democratic-Moderate R coalition (potentially in both houses). Alaska is unique in that both they've had bipartisan coalition governments in the past. This year might create a coalition in both houses for the first time but more likely they end up in a coalition in one but 4. Dems might force a tie in one or both houses of the Arizona legislature. 5. Dems block the supermajority in Wisconsin and North Carolina so the Dem governors in both states can still veto legislation. Fun night down ballot for Dems. This was all best case scenario stuff and its somehow working out for them.
Brian Kemp was super-MAGA. He wasn't willing to overturn the election in GA and was made an enemy by Trump. Dominated his primary against Trump's pick and vastly improved his results over Abrams.
Absolutely - Kemp played this perfectly. Stood up for his state, made himself seem like a moderate to Independents, but still was the only option for GOPers. Interestingly, Raffensperger managed to become the most popular GOP statewide official doing the same.
I think that would be a great ticket. I like it with Whitmer at the top. She also has faced real danger from MAGA maniacs. She might be able to draw out more crazies that are against here which would help their chances. Newsom is slimy but he knows how to play the game and isn't afraid to make bold moves when he believes there's a chance it will help him. Despite his boldness he won't make extreme or reckless moves, ever, even if they are the most principled.
Right - but he wasn't Trump's VP. Kemp was able to stand up for his state and his voters. I don't know how Kemp would fare on the national stage - MAGA people in other parts of the country probably don't have the same love for him.
these pundits have all been referencing poll numbers in their talking points as to why this massive red wave was coming seems to me like polls underestimated youth and new Dem turnout post-Dobbs if we go by RCP, the most likely outcome was a 53-47 Senate in favor of the GOP
Trump might be locked up in 2 years. Anybody else would have already been in prison for those criminal acts.
Well this certainly aged well The real polls have been remarkably accurate, not the fake republican pols that were released over the last couple of days.
I've always thought Whitmer had an extremely high ceiling. Hard pass on Newsom though. Soft maybe as VP to minimize liability, but I can't see much upside to his inclusion other than his charisma. I think you have to look hard at candidates that can bring out minority voters or someone that can deliver you a key swing state... Newsom is neither of those.
