The polls have been pretty dead-on accurate this polling cycle, especially if you take out all the nonsense partisan firms (Rasmussen, InsiderAdvantage, etc). The major races are all right in the standard margin of error.
Yeah, RealClearPolitics was doing a lot of partisan nonsense (both with flooding the site with GOP polls but also their own arbitrary unskewing). But 538 had Dems with a 42-52% chance of winning the Senate depending on which model you used, and Dems having a 15-20% chance of taking the House, which seems to still be around where betting markets are at. Seems like a slight Dem overperformance there, but probably no more than 1-3% overall I think.
Michigan just passed Constitutional protections for abortion. Kentucky and Montana voters are voting on various forms of it too - in both cases, abortion-rights are currently winning though they are still up in the air.
Fetterman lead dropping in PA. That’s going to be super close. Texas was a purple haze. This state is red red red. beto and Stacy abrams are done now. no red wave for sure.
To let y’all know I was door knocking and then at an election viewing party at a bar thet didn’t have food. Taco Bell was the only place they was still open nearby
My take away is that Americans don’t really like inflation or the economy… and the party of the sitting President always gets the blame for that… but right now the American people don’t really like or have confidence in either party.
I think a ton of the outstanding vote is in the Philly area - GOP sued this morning to prevent vote counting there for various reasons and they are slow anyway. Betting markets have Fetterman at 98% and NYT's needle has it 95%+. This site is great because it looks at where the outstanding vote is and how candidates are doing in different areas compared to past elections: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-needle-forecast.htm In the end, I think Fetterman wins comfortably.
