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2022 FREE AGENTS

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by Marshall Bryant, Jun 25, 2021.

  1. Marshall Bryant

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    Since this isn't about 2021 help and I don't see an existing thread, here goes.

    38 FA SP ZACK GREINKE 2016 2021 $32,000,000
    39 FA SP JUSTIN VERLANDER 2020 2021 $33,000,000
    27 FA SS CARLOS CORREA 2021 2021 $11,700,000
    38 FA P JOE SMITH 2020 2021 $4,000,000
    35 FA C MARTIN MALDENADO 2020 2021 $3,500,000

    This is $84,200,000 coming off the books. Who do we want to keep or who do we try yo replace on the FA market?

    I like Greinke and Verlander, but not at ACE prices coming off mid rotation and Tommy John seasons approaching 40.

    I think it's time for Joe Smith to call it a career.

    Martin Maldenado would be a good sign, but at a D first catcher price. Castro is already here so it's not a critical sign.

    That leaves the elephant, Carlos Correa. What is a stud that plays a full season every three years worth? Will some team just look past this to just his 2 outstanding seasons? Will Correa break down THIS SEASON?

    If we decide we really want him, we have more flexibility than last off-season, but will he be the most cost efficient sign? I'm good up to 7 years @ $30M/YR, but I don't know if that will be enough. Above that, it's just too large of an investment on a single player with an injury history.
     
  2. conquistador#11

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    Part ways with Greinke and Verlander. Make them one of those Astros "offers". The offer where you know they won't accept but you can throw your hands up and say I tried.

    I would then approach Correa with 5 years 198 million. Give him a player option for that fifth year. By that time, Michael and Yuli will be free agents even if they're given another 2 year extension in 2022.
    So there is no excuse to not go after Carlos with a real offer.
    If Carlos says: " No. I want to go to the Angels and be sexy in Hollywood.", the Astros better spend that money they were going to give Carlos. Alejandro moves to SS, you sign an all star 3rd baseman or Alejandro stays at 3rd and you get the next best SS and an outfielder. Straw becomes a super utility guy hitting 20 homers.
     
  3. Htown Legend

    Htown Legend Member

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    Maldonado agreed to an extension.

    I believe there will be mutual interest between JV and the Astros.

    Smith, Greinke, and Correa are likely all gone.

    So there should be plenty of resources to fill those holes.
     
  4. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Sign Greinke and Verlander to reasonable deals and take the money saved and give it to Correa. I'm wondering what kind of influence Greinke has on the rest of the pitching staff. We all know he is the smartest and most cerebral pitcher in the league. Being an ace with a fastball barely hitting 90 takes lots of smarts.
     
  5. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    You need to update your spreadsheet. Maldonado is signed for $5,000,000 for 2022 and a team option for $5,000,000 for 2023 with a $500,000 buyout of the 2023 contact.

    So...Martin will be $5.5 million minimum.
     
    Snake Diggit likes this.
  6. Redfish81

    Redfish81 Member

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    A lot of info missing here.

    The Astros don't have 84 million coming off the books.

    Verlander 33
    Correa 11.7
    Greinke 24.7 (dbacks are paying 10.3 million)
    Smith 4
    Raley 2
    = 75.4

    Now you have to account for all the raises

    McCullers AAV goes up 10.5 million
    Maldonado goes up 2 million
    Gurriel goes up 1.5 million
    Castro will go up about 1 million from his incentives
    Pressly will get a 1.25 million dollar raise
    Odorizzi has a ton of incentives... we will use 6.75 that he gets by throwing 160 innings

    That's 22.25 million

    Arbitration raises:
    Framber
    Diaz
    Stanek
    Pruitt
    James

    Rough estimate arbitration adds 7 million in raises

    75.4 (coming off books)
    - 22.25 (raises)
    - 7 million (arbitration raises)
    = 45 million actually coming off the books

    If the luxury tax level stays the same I would expect them to spend 40ish million to maintain room for deadline moves next season

    Sign Chris Taylor for SS (14 million a year for 4 years)
    Sign Starling Marte (17 million a year for 3 years)
    Spend 10 million adding 1 elite or 2 solid bullpen arms

    Also, after the 2022 season Yordan, Tucker, Urquidy, Javier, and Taylor will all be reaching arbitration along with Framber being in his 2nd year. That will add a significant amount in raises. Probably well north of 20 million and possibly 30 million in added payroll.

    Astros aren't going to be as flush with cash this offseason like many think.....
     
    marks0223 likes this.
  7. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Analyzing the position player roster they have coming back:

    Locks:
    Maldonado
    Castro
    Gurriel
    Altuve
    Bregman
    Tucker
    Brantley
    Alvarez

    Near locks:
    Diaz
    Straw
    McCormick

    Other guys on the 40 man:
    Toro
    Garcia (DFA candidate)
    Jones (DFA candidate)
    Stubbs (DFA candidate)
    Nova

    Guys who will need to be add to the 40 man roster for Rule 5 protection:
    Papierski
    Meyers
    Dawson
    Perez
    Matijevic (maybe)
    De La Cruz (maybe)
    McKenna (maybe)
    Costes (maybe)
    Manea (maybe)

    Other top prospects who could contribute in 2022:
    Leon
    Lee
    Pena

    This is pretty simple; they need a starting SS. Sure, there are ways they could get creative/risky (move Bregman over, move Straw to SS, use Diaz, depend on Pena or Leon being ready), but for now it’s safe to say Houston’s biggest task of the offseason is acquiring an everyday SS. Luckily, this offseason projects to have the biggest crop of free agent SS in recent memory, and Houston will have significant payroll flexibility. There are 3 bonafide stars (Correa, Seager, Story), 2 potential stars (Semien, Baez), a group of guys who could be justified as quality starters (Taylor, Crawford, Villar), and a group of aging veterans who might be barely adequate (Simmons, Andrus, Galvis, Iglesias).

    I don’t see the Astros/Click putting a $200M+ offer in front of anybody, so that likely takes Correa, Seager, and Story off the table. My expectation is that Houston waits to see how the market develops for the rest of those guys and tries to get one at a decent value. Best case scenario for me would be Semien is not extended a QO and he gets antsy waiting for the top 3 guys to sign, and settles for something like $130M/5yrs. I also wouldn’t mind something like $20m/2yr for a guy like Crawford or Villar, $50M/4yr for Chris Taylor, or a make-good $37M/2yr deal for Baez. The trade market doesn’t look that appealing; it’s possible guys like Ketel Marte, Didi Gregorius, or Gleyber Torres come available but they don’t look more appealing than the free agent options.

    Other than that one very key piece, the position player roster is pretty set. I’m hoping Click uses some of the open money to extend Tucker and/or Alvarez.

    projected 2022 opening day position player roster:

    CF Straw
    LF Brantley
    3B Bregman
    2B Altuve
    DH Alvarez
    1B Gurriel
    RF Tucker
    SS Semien/Baez/Taylor/Crawford/Villar
    C Maldonado
    Bench: Diaz, Castro, Toro, McCormick

    Optioned: Papierski, Nova, Perez, Meyers, De La Cruz
    DFA/Traded: Stubbs, Garcia, Jones
    Rule 5 risks: Dawson, Matijevic, McKenna
     
  8. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Analyzing the pitching roster they have coming back:

    Locks:
    McCullers
    Odorizzi
    Valdez
    Urquidy
    Garcia
    Javier
    Baez
    Pressly

    Near locks:
    Stanek
    Paredes
    Taylor

    Other pitchers on the 40 man roster:
    Abreu
    Bielak
    Emanuel (DFA candidate)
    Garza (DFA candidate)
    Ivey
    James (DFA candidate)
    Martes (DFA candidate)
    Pruitt (non-tender candidate)
    Rodriguez (DFA candidate)
    Scrubb
    Solis
    Solomon
    Whitley

    Rule 5 list:
    Serrano
    Rivera
    Henderson
    France
    Bermudez
    Hernandez
    Martinez
    Daniels
    Macuare
    Donato
    Blanco
    Tejada
    Dubin
    Ferrell
    McKee
    Rosado
    Mushinski
    Conine
    LaRue
    Torres
    Hartman
    Scheetz

    Other prospects who could help in 2022:
    H Brown

    Of course teams can always find room for more top of the line starting pitching, but the way Houston’s 5 controllable SP are throwing right now, it looks like their rotation is set as Valdez, McCullers, Odorizzi, Urquidy, and Garcia. Pressly, Baez, and Javier are locked in the bullpen, leaving 5 spots to fill. I fully expect Houston to add a controllable RP next month, and they’ll likely use young pitching as their trade chips, so this may be a clearer picture after the deadline. But my guess is that aside from SS, adding a RP will be Clicks other priority. There are far too many free agent and trade options to analyze there. Also, it wouldn’t shock me at all if Houston made a serious offer to Justin Verlander. I doubt they pursue Zack Greinke. I’m hoping Click uses some of the available money to extend Valdez, Urquidy, Garcia, or Javier.

    Projected 2022 opening day pitcher roster:
    Rotation: Verlander, Valdez, McCullers, Odorizzi, Urquidy
    Bullpen: Paredes, Stanek, Garcia, Javier, Baez, TBD 2021 deadline addition, TBD 2022 offseason addition, Pressly

    Optioned: Whitley, Solis, Abreu, Solomon, Taylor, Bielak, Bermudez, Conine, Macuare
    60 Day DL: Ivey
    DFA/traded: Scrubb, Emanuel, Garza, Pruitt, James, Martes, Rodriguez
    Rule 5 risks: Dubin, Torres, France, Donato, Serrano
     
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  9. Marshall Bryant

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    I double checked and found nothing extending the 2020 - 2 year deal on either COTS or Baseball Reference. Both show him as a FA in 2022. I sure hope I'm wrong.

    Gurriel has a 1 - year deal with an 8M option in 2022 which is his last arbitration year. He'll be 39 in his first FA year - 2023. I assume it will be exercised.
     
  10. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    Your hope is true. You are wrong. A simple Google search would show the details of Maldonado's contract.
     
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  11. the shark

    the shark Member

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    Bobrek is correct.

    Go to spotrac.com (or type in Martin Malonado contract) and you'll see the details of his contract.
     
    Marshall Bryant likes this.
  12. Marshall Bryant

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  13. bobrek

    bobrek Politics belong in the D & D

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    the shark likes this.
  14. Marshall Bryant

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    Lindor just received $34.1M/Yr after NO INJURY HISTORY and that was 9M more per year than AROD with the second biggest annual contract when he was still a SS.

    Starting at $39.4/YR doesn't make sense. I thought 7 years at $30 was quite generous. It's easily the second largest contract for a SS ever.
     
  15. Marshall Bryant

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    I like to be creative. How about 7 years @ $25M/Tr with $5M incentives for reaching 400PA and 600PA. If he stays healthy, he's at $35M/Yr and the highest contract ever for a SS. If he has 2 600 PA seasons, 2 400 PA seasons and 3 below 400 PA seasons, the Astros save $40M which can be applied to the cost of his backup.

    ps There is a work stoppage hanging over the 2022 season, in case anyone has conveniently forgotten.
     
  16. Phillyrocket

    Phillyrocket Member

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    It’s really going to suck if we lose Keuchel, Cole, Verlander, Grienke, Springer, and Correa without signing at least one comparable priced talent due to arbitration raises.

    Above was proposed $40 million to spend once the dust settles. Correa turned down 6/120 and Lindor got 10/341. There’s got to be something in the middle so that Carlos goes to the HOF an Astro. 8/250?
     
  17. Marshall Bryant

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    I'd like incentives in exchange for years.He's a risk to have a great season every third year. Incentives share the risk and offer rewards for staying healthy.
     
  18. Astrofan59

    Astrofan59 Member

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    I think Carlos Correa sees himself as the best shortstop, and wants to be paid as the best. I think he is looking for a 10 year, $350 million contract. I do not see Houston even entertaining that amount, but I think someone will. I hope I am wrong, but I doubt it. Why shouldn't he be paid like Lindor? Cannot say he is not the better of the two. Only think that can be said is that he has not been as healthy, but he has been this year and is tearing it up.
     
  19. Marshall Bryant

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    If it's all about the money. Correa should become a top Lefthanded Starting Pitcher. That's the big contract position.
     
  20. conquistador#11

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    That Sexi factor is going to cost you extra, papi.
    No, but I just want them to offer him his market value and see where it goes from there.

    The arbitration payments were mentioned. Is there a salary cap in baseball now?
    Tired of these broke billionaire boys owning teams. Put on your Egyptian cotton robe and pay Carlitos, mofo.

    (Now that I've had my snickers bar. I think we could all get over Correa not returning with a World Series win. No pressure)
     

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