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2022 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Dec 8, 2021.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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  2. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    No Astros prospects were listed in fangraphs’ “pick to click” article about who they think will break out and be on the Top 100 list next year. Here are the Astros prospects I think have a chance to have that kind of breakout:

    OF Colin Barber: staying healthy, sticking in CF, and mashing across High A and AA probably gets him there

    OF/IF Tyler Whitaker: looking viable in CF or at SS plus mashing in full season ball likely gets him there

    RHP Alex Santos II: I expect a breakout as he finally gets to use 3 pitches; Asheville may make it hard on him but if he is able to get to Corpus and throw a good handful of starts there his stock will skyrocket

    3B Joe Perez: would have to dominate AAA without getting called up

    C Yainer Diaz: another huge year with dominant AA stats probably does the trick

    RHP Jaime Melendez: if he dominates the upper levels he may be able to overcome his lack of pedigree

    IF Cristian Gonzalez: certainly the physical upside is there along with defensive value but he’d have to take a gigantic step forward offensively to get that kind of hype. Asheville will help his cause.

    There’s also a group of high upside college guys (Whitcomb, Daniels, McKenna, Berryhill, Barefoot, Brewer) who would need to really dominate AA over a full season in order to get Top 100 hype, and a group of international prospects (Nova, Lorenzo, Baez, A. Hernandez) who are probably a year away if they make it at all. And as always you never know with pitching prospect who will break out but aside from Melendez and Santos I wouldn’t expect any prospects to have the kind of year that lands them on 2023 top 100 lists. There’s a handful of international guys (Tamarez, Taveras, Macuare, Robaina, Solis, etc.) who might take a big step forward although very unlikely a big enough step to get in top 100 range. And any college arms (T Brown, McDermott) who breakout will likely be moved too quickly to qualify.
     
    #82 Snake Diggit, Feb 24, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2022
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  3. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Hunter Brown is the only Astro prospect at No. 93 prospect in ZiPS projection system. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2022-top-100-prospects/

    I was expecting a shutout or it to be Pena the one to sneak in at the bottom of the list. Pena was hurt last year and gets a lot of value from defense which is hard for projection systems to rate. Even still, I expected he would be rated higher than Brown and Lee.

    Astros use to dominate stat-based Top 100's a few years back.
     
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  4. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    What was the old acronym stat evaluation system fangraphs used to post? It wasn’t zips. I can’t recall. But the Astros used to dominate that list.
     
  5. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    KATOH

    For hitters, this system looked primarily for Age for level, ISO, BABIP, K%, and BB% (A+ and up only). It also looked at SB% which I think was more for an estimate for speed.

    For Pitchers, K% and BB% with HR% for upper levels along with age and starting.
     
    #85 Joe Joe, Feb 25, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2022
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  6. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    That’s it! Thanks, that was killing me not being able to remember! And the different crap I was asking googling wasn’t brining it up.

    Katoh was really good. And it looks like the guy who created it ended up getting a front office job.
     
    #86 Snake Diggit, Feb 25, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2022
  7. xcrunner51

    xcrunner51 Contributing Member

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    The Effectively Wild episode 1815 had Fangraphs prospect guys Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein on. They made a few references to Korey Lee (as a frame of reference) and did what I thought was a good job at the end throwing cold water on the idea that prospects are gonna end up being big difference makers.

    Re: Korey Lee, they mentioned they had something like 12 catchers on the list this year. For some reason, the catchers they talked about were in reference to Lee instead of someone else. They were very tepid on Lee's bat, saying it probably will never be average/50-grade. His Fangraphs page says 30-35 Bat grade. They kept mentioning him to point out that even with his profile (below avg bat/above avg power/above average def), he could end up a 3.5-4 WAR catcher which is still pretty valuable. They mentioned a possible .235-.240 batting line with 25HR's. That is def solid if not slightly above avg, but not all-star ability.

    Re: prospecting. They specifically pointed out the bottom half of the top 100 has a 46% bust rate. In my eyes, they're basically saying 50-100 doesn't mean a whole lot. There's still only a 50/50 chance you get a solid big leaguer much less star.
     
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  8. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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    https://theathletic.com/3150354/202...ros-latest-late-blooming-outfielder-prospect/

    WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. — To best evaluate Corey Julks, his 2021 season in Double A must be split into two parts: before his three weeks on the development list and after it.

    Before: a .272/.320/.412 batting line in 147 plate appearances.

    After: .297/.369/.545 in 225 plate appearances.

    Though his cumulative .841 OPS was strong on its own, it’s the .914 OPS (and .545 slugging) from July 20 through Sept. 19 that changed the perception of the 5-foot-10, 214-pound Julks as he comes into 2022. Before, the 2017 eighth-round draft pick was viewed as more of an organizational player. Now, the 26-year-old Houston area native is an under-the-radar — albeit older — corner outfielder prospect who has a chance to reach the majors in 2022.

    What changed? It starts with those three weeks Julks worked at the Astros’ spring training facility in West Palm Beach from late June to mid-July.

    “He’s one of our biggest, strongest guys in the system,” Astros assistant general manager Pete Putila said. “(He’s) very athletic. But with his swing, he just wasn’t getting the power production that we thought he could achieve.”

    Compelled by the data that supported their case, the Astros presented Julks with a plan. They would remove him from game action and the daily grind of competition with Double-A Corpus Christi for a stretch and send him to Florida for individual instruction. MLB has a relatively new mechanism called the development list that allows a team to send minor leaguers to its spring training complex for the purposes of development or conditioning. The player must stay on the list for at least seven days. While on it, the player still counts against the organization’s list of 180 minor leaguers but doesn’t count against the specific affiliate’s active roster.

    “I was caught off guard a little bit,” Julks said last week after a workout in the Astros’ ongoing minor-league minicamp. “But the (Corpus Christi) coaching staff, they kept me in high spirits and told me to just go down there and work and keep my head down and keep pushing through it and that they’d be glad to see me back up there.”

    It’s not as if Julks was playing terribly at the time. His .732 OPS was close to the Double-A Central average (.742). He generally swung at strikes, made contact and took some walks. But the Astros weren’t seeing the exit velocities or pull-side tanks they thought might be in there given his profile.

    Once in Florida, Julks worked from the ground up. Members of the Astros player development staff, primarily complex hitting coach Tim LaMonte (now with the Mets), helped him focus on using his lower half better in his swing. Previously, he was “a little handsy, kind of pushing at the ball, filleting it a little bit instead of actually driving it and staying on it for a longer period of time,” Julks said. Finding a balance between satisfying the Astros’ requests and maintaining some of his own flavor made for some up-and-down moments. But once he found something that worked for both parties, the power improvements were striking.

    “It was an awesome opportunity to come down here and just work without worrying about the on-field performance and everything,” Julks said. “I was able to just work and get all that stuff in and then have the transition to bring it back onto the field (for games).”

    After Julks rejoined Double-A Corpus Christi, his improved power was reflected in not only his slugging percentage but also his exit velocities and how frequently he pulled the ball in the air.

    “I thought it was awesome, just the open-mindedness he had,” Astros minor-league field coordinator Jason Bell said. “It’s not an easy thing to do. He wasn’t struggling in Double A, either. He was having a pretty solid season. But we just felt like there is so much more in there that could make him a very good major-league prospect. Credit to Corey Julks for believing in the staff and himself, to buy into what everybody was telling him he could unleash.”

    Said Putila, who has overseen the Astros’ farm system since the 2017 season, Julks’s draft year: “All the credit goes to him for buying into it and putting in the work and then jumping back out there and hitting the ground running. That was a pretty special development case there with him, the work that he put in.”

    So, what’s next? Now the question is whether Julks will build on his swing improvements during this minor-league season, which he could start in Triple A. The graduations of Jake Meyers and Jose Siri to the majors, the trade of Bryan De La Cruz to the Marlins and Ronnie Dawson’s selection by the Reds in the minor-league Rule 5 draft have created available playing time in Sugar Land’s outfield. The Astros also have experimented with Julks at third base — he played infield at Clear Brook High School (Friendswood, Texas) and early in his tenure at the University of Houston before he was moved to the outfield — and if he can be passable there it might help him get more at-bats if the Triple-A roster gets crowded.

    Julks, who turned 26 on Sunday, said he feels like his swing adjustments have carried over into minicamp. A full offseason to continue working on them was beneficial. He acknowledged he still has some fine-tuning ahead of him but added that “now that I actually have an idea of what I want to feel, I can work on it better.” With the resurgent power numbers he posted in the second half of last season, he’s turned himself into one of the more intriguing non-40-man-roster players to monitor in the Astros’ system this year.

    “I’m just trying to be better than I was last year,” Julks said. “I’m always trying to improve, (to) not even worry about last year anymore, just looking for the next step.”
     
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  9. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Capture.PNG

    It is a 50-50 odds that a bottom half of Top 100 produces 1 WAR during club control. Only about 10% of bottom half (FV 50) produce a solid big leaguer or better over their club control years. However, about 2/3s of good MLB players were ranked in their Top 100 lists.

    So more false positives than one would like, but a lower set of false negatives than one would expect with the false positive rate.

    I've found that guys in AA and AAA that produce (looking at BB%, K% and SWStr%, BABIP, and ISO) and are on Top 100 lists typically do pretty well, AJ Reed being a very notable exception.

    Caveat: The table above is a little dated (2018), but they still seem to overrate guys that are in lower levels so I don't expect anything much different in their skill level.
     
    #89 Joe Joe, Feb 28, 2022
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2022
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  10. J.R.

    J.R. Member

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  11. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    2 teams in both complex leagues is a good sign to me.
     
  12. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Took a look at the latest 3 year ZIPS projections for Houston. Not much stands out. For 2024, Zips sees Tucker, Alvarez, and Bregman as star players, with Altuve declining into a tier with Pena and Meyers as average regulars. They project McCormick, Whitcomb, Diaz, Lee, and Perez as below average regulars with a surprise group of unheralded prospects in Correa, Manea, and Valdez as fringey regulars or plus bench players. Beyond that it projects most prospects as bench level players. Berryhill and De Goti are the only other prospects projected for 1+ war in 2024. The system shows Brantley, Gurriel, and Maldonado in steep decline by then and doesn’t think much of Leon.

    The good news is the Astros have 3 projected stars locked up and Altuve also isn’t likely to go anywhere. Combine that with the depth Houston has up the middle (with Lee/Diaz/Berryhill/Papierski/Manea all projected to be viable major leaguers at C, Pena/Whitcomb at SS, and Meyers/McCormick/Siri/Leon at CF), and Houston’s future lineup is weak only at spots that tend to be easy/cheap to fill with good hitters: 1B and LF.

    On the pitching staff, Zips has Garcia, McCullers, and Valdez as MoR SP, with Urquidy and Odorizzi as BoR types. A solid group of young pitchers project as BoR/elite RP: Javier, Brown, Dubin, and Solomon. Zips doesn’t think much of Whitley or Melendez. So from that projection Houston will need to find an ace somewhere but otherwise should have a steady stream of prospects to keep the back of the rotation and bullpen stacked.

    The projections of the other teams in the AL West certainly portend the division getting tighter. But as long as Houston continues to spend and draft the way they have in the last half decade, they should continue to be in the mix for banners every year.

    https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=zipsp2&team=21&lg=all&players=0
     
    #92 Snake Diggit, Mar 7, 2022
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2022
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  13. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I'd be a little leery of ZiPS defensive projections for most prospects as I think there is a lot of survivor bias. It tends to lump everyone that isn't great or horrendous into the average bucket. However, defense not being average for their position in majors keeps a lot of minor leaguers from being major leaguers.

    On weak spots, OF and 1B do look like the weak spots. I'm a little more concerned with 1B long term as I see Alvarez getting some PAs as a LF.
     
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  14. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Totally agree the projections warrant skepticism due to defense. I’m pretty skeptical of the guys zips projects as fringe-regulars (Whitcomb, Diaz, Perez, Berryhill, Valdez, Correa, Manea), as their offensive projections would make them reliant on being average or better defensively for their positions, and most of those guys have yet to prove that to say the least. I am optimistic that a couple of those guys (namely Perez and Diaz, along with Lee and Leon) will show their offensive projections are too low which will mitigate the defensive questions.
     
  15. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    It does take a lot, and rightly so, for ZiPs to give out good offensive ratings to prospects. Generally only see offensive projections creep out above the 70s for RC+ in AA and AAA as stats have a hard time with lower level guys.
     
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  16. Buck Turgidson

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    I'm waiting for the ZAP ratings
     
  17. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Clip showed Whitley throwing 93 yesterday. Not sure where he’s at in his rehab but if he still has 2-3 months of ramp up then I would take that as a good sign.

    Chron has posted some articles behind a paywall over the last week about Korey Lee, Grae Kessinger, Mike Papierski, Alimber Santa, Jayson Schroeder, Logan Cerny, Luke Berryhill, Joe Perez, Shawn Dubin, JC Correa, and Hunter Brown.

    Santa is allegedly throwing high 90s stuff.
     
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  18. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    2018 10th round pick OF Chandler Taylor retired.
     
  19. tellitlikeitis

    tellitlikeitis Canceled
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    Not even sure when I'm getting my hard copy of the Prospect Handbook, but here's the Baseball America Top 30...

    1. Korey Lee 55/High
    2. Jeremy Pena 55/High
    3. Hunter Brown 55/High
    4. Pedro Leon 45/High
    5. Joe Perez 45/High
    6. Alex Santos 50/Extreme
    7. Tyler Ivey 50/Extreme
    8. Jaime Melendez 45/High
    9. Tyler Whitaker 50/Extreme
    10. Peter Solomon 45/High
    11. Shawn Dubin 45/High
    12. Grae Kessinger 45/High
    13. Forrest Whitley 50/Extreme
    14. Matthew Barefoot 45/High
    15. Cristian Gonzalez 50/Extreme
    16. Yainer Diaz 45/High
    17. Alex McKenna 45/High
    18. Chayce McDermott 45/High
    19. Colin Barber 50/Extreme
    20. Jordan Brewer 45/Extreme
    21. Dauri Lorenzo 45/Extreme
    22. Zach Daniels 45/Extreme
    23. Jimmy Endersby 40/High
    24. Jojanse Torres 40/High
    25. Brett Conine 40/High
    26. Shay Whitcomb 40/High
    27. Jonathan Bermudez 40/High
    28. Seth Martinez 40/High
    29. Jairo Solis 45/Extreme
    30. Tyler Brown 40/High

    Next 10
    31. Logan Cerny
    32. Jose Alberto Rivera
    33. Joe Record
    34. Jonathan Sprinkle
    35. Misael Tamarez
    36. Justin Dirden
    37. Corey Julks
    38. Alimber Santa
    39. J.J. Matijevic
    40. Scott Manea
     
  20. tellitlikeitis

    tellitlikeitis Canceled
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