2022-23 Houston Rockets -- will they be over/under 24.5 wins?

The worst play in team in the West last year got in with 34 victories. I don't expect it to be different this season.

How many bottom feeders are there?
Orlando, Det, Spurs, Jazz, Knicks, OKC, Sactown, and Wizards

Houston will finish better than those teams. Maybe the Lakers get the last play in game in the West. Clippers, Twolves and Pelicans get better with injured players returning. The Pacers become Mid with Haliburton over in the East.

So realistically Houston in the 2023 draft will have a 7th -11th pick selection. But no need for a Satanic Panic for those that live for the draft, Kings landed the 4th pick last year in a similar situation.
I have no idea who are these players entering the draft other than Wemby, Scoot, Amen and Whitmore.

 

For every pre-season game that passes, it gets a little harder for me to imagine this team being as bad as many say they should.

 

If it helps the 0-16 lions team went undefeated in the preseason. It means nothing

 

I’ve been having this feeling for a month now, and even more so now…. The Hawks are gonna get their *** beat on the 19th. Who is Trae gonna guard? This team is gonna get after it all season. I can’t wait!!

 

We are talking about the Lions. They weren't even good when Barry Sandes was there. Perennial losers.

 

You can’t compare NFL preseason to the NBA. Huge difference! NFL teams are trying to evaluate in order to cut over 40 players. The injury risk isn’t the same, therefore key players play way more. Horrible example you used there

 

Lol

 

Yep. Knicks and Kings went 4-0 in the preseason last year then missed the playoffs. Celtics 2-2 and went to the finals. Bucks 1-4 and won 51 games.

Year before that Rockets went 3-1 in the preseason then won 17 whole games during the season.

I get being excited. I get that there are some really good signs through 2 games, but it’s not uncommon for the preseason to go entirely different than the regular season.

 

Should be easy to get 25 wins... Unfortunately KPJ is the key..

 

One thing I would check is if those wins are a result of the Rockets winning the first or second half. If they are winning the first half, then it means they were winning mostly against the opposing team's regular season rotation. If they were winning only in the second half that probably was just a result of our end of bench players being better than the other team's end of bench players.

This preseason, the Rockets maintained sizable leads throughout the entire time against the opponents' regular season rotation was out besides some key injuries on both sides.

Very small sample size. I'm not going to make any predictive claims about them honestly Bessie's they look promising and you can see some improvement and promise from our rooks.

My prediction is if both Bari and Tari have all rookie level years, this team is winning over 30 games. That is the best case scenario probably.

 

It is not a matter of number of wins in the preseason. Some things are like day and night compared to last year. Defense, hustle and energy is way up. We added two guys who do a lot of little things and got rid of one that is the complete opposite. And we have a solid additional 3 pt threat. Green and Sengun will improve throughout the season as well.

On the negative side, I think guard and center positions are below average and this will be enough to keep the team from 30 wins. Sengun is not starting caliber yet and his backups are nothing special. Kpj is one of the worst starting pgs and his backups are probably worst backup pigs in the league. Add the inexperience of the team to the mix and you get something like 22-28 wins.


My guess is that we will have a good start until the initial motivation dies off and the other teams start to take us more seriously.

 

I'm thinking we land on 28 wins this season. Conversely, I wouldn't be surprised if the chemistry is better than expected and 35 wins is achieved.

 

The Texans were also undefeated this year.

Last year, 30 wins gets you the 7th worst record in the NBA. That would be a 10 game improvement. That doesn't seem completely unrealistic, but probably on the very optimistic side. The Rockets record at the deadline will dictate any moves they make. If they have a bottom 3 record at that point, they might as well do a sell-off to help them maintain that trajectory. But if they are closer to the 30 win projection, while they shouldn't do an "all-in for the play-offs" move, they could definitely take advantage of another team's sell-off if it makes sense for their future.

 

I feel like rockets roster Is a time bomb, they can really surprise a lot of folks

 

https://www.si.com/nba/2022/10/14/a...tered-western-conference-lakers-warriors-suns

The Rockets are going to stink. Again. Their spacing was horrendous last season. Their willingness to pass was terrible. Their defense stunk. ... Jabari Smith Jr. can help defensively right away. On offense, he has that high release that makes his shot impossible to get to. If he starts making them, he could surprise people early. ... If I were them, I’d get Kevin Porter Jr. out of there and say, “Hey, Jalen Green and Smith, we’re going to roll with you guys. Hey, Stephen Silas, your job as coach is to make those two guys better. Then we’re going to get a top-five pick again next year. And then we’re going to say, ‘These are our three guys.’”

 

LMAO he's STILL saying the rockets should just get rid of KPJ? What a double down!

 

https://theathletic.com/3685200/2022/10/14/win-totals-over-under-nba-western-conference/

Houston Rockets: 23.5 wins
(Danny Leroux) My pick: Under

This line is primarily a reflection of internal improvement for a young foundation, because the Rockets earned their 20-62 record last season despite being reasonably healthy. I fully expect to see major strides from Jalen Green, Alperen Şengün, Kevin Porter Jr. and the rest, but is that enough to propel them four or more wins forward? It definitely could be, but I am skeptical.

The other factor to consider is that the Rockets will likely *ahem* focus on maximizing their lottery odds toward the end of the season if they’re are close to this over/under threshold. Houston has plenty of ways to de-emphasize winning in the final month-plus. Plenty of flawed teams win 24 or more even if they fall well short of the postseason, but the stars are aligning well enough for me to reluctantly pick the Rockets’ under.

 

538 has us at 19 wins:

Spoiler

 

24 wins (over) got you the #2 pick last year. Even if everything goes perfectly this team is not winning much more than 30 games. It’s crazy to think we have to actively try to lose to get under 23 wins. That would require total underachievement from our young guys. So good job you have a 14% chance (the max) at Wemby now, but all your other players that you got from two years of tanking have proved that they suck. What’s the point?

I would much rather see all our young guys ball out, push 30 wins, and still have a 10% chance at #1 and close to 40% chance at top 4.