I can't for the life of me figure out why so many people are oblivious to this. They'll only trade him for a staggering overpay which means there's no viable trade. They turned down 4 picks. Now they're turning down the #3 pick and Simons. To put it more simply: they're looking for a dumb GM to rebuild the entire franchise for them.
You're about to get an avalanche of hate for indicating we might be able to acquire someone of value other than James Harden. They will also point out it's pointless to get them because: Hali is skinny Claxton can't lead an offense Jaylen Brown doesn't have an elite handle Sabonis can't protect the rim I'm getting good at this game of pointing one random flaw out and acting like that's an analysis On a serious note: yes that's a great strategy. Players with short contracts can influence their GM by threatening to walk in a year. Playoff losses create a lot of tension and make available players that were never rumored to be available. I'd especially keep an eye on the Celtics/Heat series. Whoever loses that series now will have no choice but to make major changes.
Salman Ali and Dave Hardisty: https://www.rednationhoops.com/p/reacting-to-the-4th-pick-more-james DH: I’m happy with the result. It could’ve been better but they are in a good spot. If they fell one additional spot to 5 or to 6, it would’ve been a significant difference. At 4, given how the Rockets view this draft, they’re in a good position. … Getting 4 is not a bad outcome for the Rockets. DH: Personally, I would like to see Scoot Henderson with the Rockets. I’m open to a lot of prospects but Scoot, fit wise, long term wise, upside, would be terrific for the Rockets. I personally believe that Amen Thompson will be available at 4 but I will caution anyone, we’ve been through this before. If he checks out like people think with the size, athleticism and wingspan, you just don’t know. He could go 3rd, he could even go 2nd. It sounds crazy but it’s possible. If you were to ask me right now of the 3 top prospects outside of Wemby, I think Amen Thompson will be available at 4. 1) Does Portland move that pick? 2) Is moving up to 3 to select Scoot Henderson something you consider if you’re the Rockets? DH: To the second question, I absolutely would. … My view is yes, absolutely, the Rockets should do that. Do I believe they will? I’m not convinced at all. Matter of fact, this is before the draft, I don’t have any evidence, any clear indication at all, matter of fact the opposite, that Scoot Henderson is ranked ahead of Amen Thompson on their board or certainly not a big enough of a gap that they’d give up assets to make that decision. I’m operating off hunch than more direct evidence but I think they’re perfectly content with Amen Thompson at 4. Again, that’s a hunch but that’s kinda the feeling. For me personally, Scoot, while he doesn’t have the size of Amen Thompson, I think he’s a cut above. I think he’s a guy you want running your team. Good basketball IQ. You can grow with him as a PG. Makes sense next to Jalen Green. In my opinion, yes, I would go up and get him. First question, I’ll say no. Odds are it’s hard to get value for that. If Henderson is a tier above and available at 3, shouldn’t a number of teams be interested? I don’t know what kind of elite SF they’re supposed to get that’s on the block. I’ll say no. Talking to the Rockets beforehand, if they didn’t get Wemby certainly and if they weren’t in the top 2-3, they were going to shop the pick. They want to win now. Even they themselves will tell you “We don’t trade that pick.” That’s not from a lack of interest or willingness, it’s that teams don’t give up top players for that. When you scan the landscape, it’s hard to see who Portland will get. Who is on the table and off the table for you, in addition to the number four pick? DH: Jalen and Jabari are the highest, I don’t want to say untouchable but I think you’re trying to build with them here and everything else is negotiable. But if you’re trading Sengun or Tari, I think you need a lot for them. I think if you’re really negotiating with them, you should have enough pick assets to move from 4 to 2 or 4 to 3. … I don’t know the Rockets board or want to pretend to know the Rockets board, but I don’t believe, again a hunch, that they’re as high as Scoot Henderson as we are. When you throw in the fact they believe they’re getting Harden, does it make sense from a Rockets standpoint, not from my or a fan’s standpoint, does it make sense for the Rockets to trade up and get a plug and play future franchise PG when they’re going to be handing the reigns to Harden for 2-3 years? That’s the question. With Thompson, you have enormous upside and he probably doesn’t play right away in that role. Should they do it, do they have the assets? Yes. Will they do it? I’m very skeptical because of the other factors. Salman: You know how I feel about Sengun. I’m a borderline propagandist. I’d be hesitant to move him until I see 6 months under a new coach. But I’ll be honest. I love Scoot Henderson. I think he’s a franchise PG. If all it took was Sengun and 4, I’d at least have a serious conversation. I’m not saying I’m doing it. Let me flip it that question for you. What if it’s Jabari and 4? DH: I tend to say no but I believe Scoot is so good that like theoretically, yes, it probably makes sense. There are so many iterations before I’d get there. It’s like the same theoretical as Green for 2. I’m not pushing for it. I want him here but if we’re looking at those scenarios and asking whether you’d do it, you have to consider those. For me, it’s picks then any other iteration then Sengun then getting into Jalen and Jabari. I don’t worry about it that much. I think the Rockets are more content at 4. They’d love to be at 3. If they could make a feasible deal for 3, they’d probably do it regardless to confirm they’d get their guy, whoever that may be but I don’t believe they’ll give up Jabari and 4 for 2. I don’t believe they’re even thinking that way. I’m not convinced for sure Miller and Scoot and will go 2-3 in some order. I think it’s likely but between now and then, Amen Thompson, they’ve been watching him against 16-17 year olds but put him in a workout setting, you never know. A team could fall in love with that size and potential. Keith Pompey said Harden is bound to sign with the Rockets. What do you think will happen? DH: I think he’s coming back. It has been whispered for awhile and felt like, I don’t want to say done deal but everyone knows it. Having conversations with people with the Rockets how that $60M will be used, going down the list of free agents, it’s more shooting down those guys. When you cross certain players off, how will they spend $60M? Where? Will they kick the can another year? No, it’s James Harden. Harden is a big bulk of that and what’s left of that, filling it out with veterans. That’s Plan A. Harden wants to be here. The question is the money and years. How will Daryl play this out in Philly? Does Daryl want to bring him back but not on the full max? DH: Yeah I do. That’s exactly what it is. If it was the full max, there’d be nothing left for him to do other than hire the coach he wants. Daryl made a trade he never wanted to do to make Harden happy. He’ll do a lot to keep him happy but at the same time,…Philly has aspirations to win it all. Harden in the regular season has been phenomenal. For the Rockets, he could do a lot of positive things. He definitely fills a need that is sorely needed. In Philly, they have questions where I don’t think he can give him a 4-year, $200M deal and be fine with the Philly faithful. They’re putting their franchise at risk with a long term deal. I have no doubt Morey wants Harden back. He also has to know and all of us, we can’t defend the floundering we’ve seen in the playoffs. It’s a delicate balance. If you lose Harden for nothing, you better be super creative. It’s gonna be tough to replace that output.
Let’s say the contract is whatever you think is ideal. If he’s coming back on that number, do you want James to come back? DH: If he wants to take the MLE…my view legitimately is in this instance I am fine either way. If he comes back, I see the positives. There is a tremendous need for a PG. You’re not giving up assets other than cap space. If he doesn’t sign here, I’m totally excited about the future without him too. All things equal, I’d rather have Scoot Henderson and not bring back Harden. I think he’s going to come back and am planning on it and think that’s what will end up happening. You bring Harden back, I think they’ll try to become a contender sooner than expected. What does that mean? We’ll see. Harden is eligible for a 4-year, $202 max. What is the ideal contract? If he’s not on that ideal contract, do you still want him back? DH: The ideal contract is a 1+1 but that won’t happen. The ideal is 2 + a team option. If there’s any option, it’ll be a player option. 2+1 sounds about right as a compromise. I would avoid the 4-year deal. We have seen signs of decline and it’ll only get worse. At the same time, it’s not Russell Westbrook. This is one of the highest IQ players of all-time. As far as making the right read, making advanced reads, seeing the floor, understanding a defense. He’s a brilliant basketball player and doesn’t depend on athleticism. He has that old man game. I would be very careful and cautious as far as length of the deal but he has a few good years left as a PG in him. How will spend the $60M if they don’t sign James? Do you even want to spend all $60M or roll some into next year? DH: I lean towards rolling it into next year, especially if Cam Johnson is not gonna be who they pursue, which I’d like to see. I think the Rockets take an approach where they want value contracts and good deals. Restricted free agency doesn’t lend for that. I think they feel Cam Johnson is gonna be matched anyways so kinda take him I think off the table. Brook Lopez is intriguing. I’m not a Dillon Brooks guy but I think he’ll get some run. I think Bruce Brown will get some run from the Rockets. I think they’ll try to add some vets like that. In an ideal world, if you aren’t getting a true star, overpay these guys for one year, add a team option onto it and try again in 2024 when Jaylen Brown is a free agent. Or leverage your cap space into trades. A Kyle Lowry, Gordon Hayward or Tobias Harris and pick up assets in the process. There are some guys, Brook Lopez being one, that make sense for the Rockets. … (Says he would pursue Jaylen Brown) What about DeAndre Ayton? Haven’t thought about it. He’s gotta be making $30M-$35M. Given how the Rockets view the C position, I think it’d be a bad use of resources. I don’t think it’d be a good balance with Sengun unless you trade Sengun but even then, Ayton & Sengun is a non-starter. When they’re looking for a different type of big, they’re looking for a Robert Williams type. A guy who can compliment Sengun. They hope he takes a leap defensively but they’ll want that option of the strong screen setter, rim roller, shot blocker, lob threat, all those things. Not necessarily to start, maybe it is, but someone who can give you that. … DH: I tend to think the big splash this summer will be a trade. Not just draft we’ll draft a guy at 4, add some free agents and build around our core. I know Ime is saying all the right things but I don’t think the Rockets know. Something could shake loose. Paul George comes go on the block or Kawhi. I don’t expect these things but… Salman: I do expect PG to be on the block. DH: I didn’t mention this earlier with the draft but the Rockets would love to trade their pick for a veteran or significant player but it hurts them the team one spot ahead of them is doing the exact same thing. They have the 2nd best asset on the block if you will when comparing those things and furthermore, they could trade to a team that takes who the Rockets want. If those guys are on the block, I expect the Rockets to be heavily pursuing those things and could come down to what additional assets you have to move.
There's a difference between what the Rockets can offer them and what any other team can offer. Control of their own destiny .... there's more value in that than any 4 picks another team can give. They cannot afford to be bad as long as the Rockets own their picks. They won't be getting early lottery picks to improve. IF Stone called them up and said your picks & swaps for Bridges, they'd jump on it.
I have some disagreements with this logic. Firstly, they rejected four first rounders from the Memphis Grizzlies. Even if Ja Morant was suspended for three years after flashing an AK 47 on TikTok, the grizzlies are a young and deep squad. The projections on those picks are ALL 12-28 at best. And the chance of it being 12 through 18 with hinge on him missing entire swaths of the season. They will be a great regular season team for some time and having Bridges would only be value those picks. secondly, they are rejecting #3 and Simons right now (allegedly). They wouldn’t accept that offer at this point in late May regardless on if they may take it closer to the draft. while I don’t think it is likely that they trade Bridges, I think it is more likely that they could trade bridges in a deal that involves Houston, allowing them to regain control of their own destiny.
There's a baseline assumption you're making which i don't believe to be true: that they're desperate in some way. For a team that can sign FA's relatively easily on the open market, they are different strategy. The owner does not seem interested in tanking at all based on the package he got for Durant and what he's rejecting. If you can sign FA's and you already have a player worth 4 picks before their prime you do not need to tank. In their situation it's far better to have other people's picks than their own so that they receive decent ones without losing. Rejecting 4 picks for a non superstar is unheard of. Yes we can beat other teams offers but he is not worth more than 4 picks no matter how we describe him. That number of picks is reserved for rim protectors that can score or perimeter players that can generate almost 40 points + assists. Like I said, sending back all their picks and swaps is a staggering overpay.
Jaylen Brown will almost certainly be on a Boston supermax extension and Haliburton, Maxey, and LaMelo will be matched at any cost. But even despite all of that, it's clearly a better free agent class than this one. I would love to pick up Anunoby for just cap space assuming we don't trade for him this offseason.
https://hoopshype.com/lists/rockets...n-possibility-max-cap-space-draft-picks-more/ They are projected with $62.3 million in cap space after getting the fourth overall pick in this year’s draft and could get to $64.2 million if they waive the non-guaranteed salary of Daishen Nix. That is more cap space than they may need considering that amount is $17.3 million more than the highest maximum salary slot. The Rockets are eligible to sign Harden this summer for up to four years, projected at $201.7 million. That is only $8.4 million less than the maximum amount the Sixers can re-sign him to, so there is no significant financial disadvantage if he leaves them. Houston would still have a lot of spending power left after presumably signing Harden, including $15.5-$17.2 million in cap space as well as the $7.7 million room mid-level exception. If they do sign Harden, they could target another top free agent by trading the $15.9 million salary of Kevin Porter Jr. without taking anyone back and waiving Nix. This would leave them with approximately $33 million in cap space to pursue another big name. If the Rockets cannot sign a second top free agent after presumably signing Harden to a max, they could use their cap space to pursue an All-Star in an uneven trade. They could acquire a player earning just north of $40 million by sending out the 4th overall pick and Porter Jr. Their combination of trade assets and flexibility could put them in the mix for just about any player who becomes available in what could be a period of “unbelievable star player movement”. Potential free agent or extension-candidate: KJ Martin Houston’s most significant player currently on the roster whose future they need to address is KJ Martin. He just completed his third season and has a $1.9 million team option which is also non-guaranteed. If the Rockets decline the option, he will become a restricted free agent this summer. If they pick it up, he will become an unrestricted free agent next summer. He also can avoid free agency and extend by June 30. Martin established himself as a rotation player this season and started in the majority of Rockets games. His 49 starts qualified him for the starter’s criteria which will increase his qualifying offer this summer from $2.2 million to $5.2 million, provided the Rockets make him a restricted free agent. Declining his team option and making him a restricted free agent now allows Houston to secure his future while eliminating the risk of unrestricted free agency in 2024. The Rockets can re-sign Martin this summer while still fulfilling their cap space goals. For example, they could utilize all $60 million or so of their space and then go over the cap to re-sign him to a long-term deal with his Bird rights. They could come to a verbal agreement with him, and then rescind his qualifying offer to reduce his cap hold from $5.2 million to $2 million. This would give the Rockets an additional $3.2 million in cap space for their bigger picture cap space goals before subsequently re-signing him. Martin could also be an immediate beneficiary if the Rockets aren’t successful in utilizing all of their cap space. That’s because he would become eligible for a renegotiation and extension if the Rockets pick up his team option. For example, if they sign Harden to a max but strike out with the remainder of their cap space, they could use it to increase Martin Jr.’s $1.9 million salary and extend him for up to an additional four years. By giving Martin an immediate raise, they could look to keep the subsequent years under team-friendly cap hits. That’s because in a renegotiation and extension, the Rockets would be able to reduce his second-year salary by as much as 40 percent. Here’s what a potential framework could look like with the 40 percent drop and 8 percent annual decreases: 2023-24: $19,000,000 ($17.1 million raise) 2024-25: $11,400,000 2025-26: $10,488,000 2026-27: $9,576,000 2027-28: $8,664,000 This framework would total in $59.1 million over five years with $17.1 million of it paid upfront. It distributes his salary early in exchange for cap and tax relief in future seasons for the Rockets. 2023-24 SALARY SITUATION Players rostered: 13 Guaranteed salaries: $67.9 million Non-guaranteed salaries: $3.8 million Total salary: $71.7 million Luxury tax space: $90.3 million First apron space: $92.1 million Second apron space: $102.6 million Spending power: Cap space: $62.3-65 million Room mid-level exception: $7,609,000 Christian Wood trade exception: $3,892,917 (expires June 26, 2023) Eric Gordon trade exception: $3,089,360 (expires February 9, 2024, will be renounced when Rockets generate cap space) Marquese Chriss trade exception: $293,920 (expires October 2, 2023, will be renounced when Rockets generate cap space) 2023 Pick No. 4 2023-24 salary: $8,678,400 Remaining salary guaranteed: $39,413,737 through 2026-27 2023 Pick No. 20 2023-24 salary: $3,170,280 Remaining salary guaranteed: $15,363,237 through 2026-27
They are capped out. They cannot sign FA’s of any worth this year. They can wait 2 years for Simmons contract to expire or give away assets to get rid of him. Harris has one more year at about 20m. If they could find a trade partner that would take him without a money coming back (highly unlikely without giving up some of their meager draft assets) that would put them a little under the cap. We are by far their best trade partner, but their owner seems to be delusional and willing to wallow in the mediocre for 2 years with the hope that some great FA will bail them out in a couple of years.
How far does this team go? I think it's realistic: James Harden Jaylen Brown Jabari Smith Grant Williams Alperen Sengun Amari Bailey Josh Christopher Tari Eason Usman Garuba Naz Reid This is essentially: Green, Tate, KPJ, Martin, #4 and cap space for Brown, Williams, Bailey, and Reid...
Bailey has good size for a PG. Is more combo guard now. Was efficient at UCLA. Thinking he sits for 2 years behind Harden. Good defensive potential. Reminds me a little of Dejounte Murray...
Harden/Amen Green/KPJ Cam/KMJ or vet Jabari/Tari Sengun/Vet I’d be happy with that as a off season. KPJ and Amen move to starting lineup when Harden and Cam when they are done or after a year or two
Who are they signing? The Nets are literally over the cap and will, potentially, need to match a big contract for Cam Johnson. They are pretty stuck without some major moves.
They were 10th in paint defense. I would think it improves under Udoka. That's theoretically (3) 3 and D players surrounding Harden and Sengun. I was thinking 52 wins. With 3 new starters, last year wins is irrelevant.
Jaylen Brown asks Boston to trade him to Houston. Houston represents the team he feels most comfortable with for his future and signs a 4 year 200 million max extension. Houston trades the Brooklyn assets+Tate, Christopher to Boston. #20+KMJ+Garuba to Brooklyn for Claxton. Houston drafts Jarace Walker at #4. Houston signs Harden with what is left. Sengun/Claxton Smith/Walker Brown/Eason Green/KPJ Harden/Ty
They have picks and great contracts. They will acquire someone in trade or sign n trade or clear out the rest of the cap. They are not showing any sign that they intend to tank. Whether they should tank is another question, but it doesn't seem like Marks and Tsai are going for that. Judging by how they initially rebuilt without picks (i.e. by acquiring two top tier FA's) I bet they're pretty confident they can do it again. I think in your minds you assume they must do it immediately. In truth they can just wait a season as options open up. Frankly if I were the owner I would be more in the trade/FA game too. That's an insurmountable advantage vs most teams (teams that are not big FA players, which is most teams).
