Can you elaborate on what made you comfy with Amen? I'm terrified at the prospect of a 20 yr old playing against significantly younger players finishing poorly at the rim and at the 3pt line. Who is a good comparison at around 6'7 that has been a successful winning player? To illustrate the way I see offense, if I were building a player from scratch and could choose only 2 things they could do well, it would be getting to the rim and making contested 3's. The next two major things (Assists and FTM/FTA) pale in comparison when it comes to impact metrics. Can we really take a risk on a player who's furthest from those 2 key skills that form the brunt of offensive impact? What about when taking into consideration that he's not a sure-fire good defender? This guy really worries me. I can see the way he moves on the court is special, but I fear that someone screwed up his skills development and it may be too far gone for a team that really needs to a "hit" on this pick.
The #4 pick would be way too much. Murray only has 1 year left on his contract so I’d toss in our 2023 late FRP, KPJ, Garuba as a first offer. I included Capela because I assumed it would cost less for us to take back his contract but more than likely would require a third team.
1. I respect your philosophy here, and I do think shooting is extremely important, but I'm a big believer in the tall, long, athletic playmaker archetype in today's game. I think it's the direction the entire league is headed. Luka, Haliburton, Giddey, SGA, Cade, Scottie Barnes--I believe these types of players are the future of the league. I think passing is an underrated skill and it's at least as important as shooting for guys who are your primary ballhandler and have the ball in their hands every time up the floor. I also think it's a lot harder to find guys with great passing/playmaking skills than it is to find good shooters to surround them with. And yeah, some of those guys I mentioned are really good shooters, but not all of them. I think having size, athleticism, and playmaking skills gives a prospect a lot to fall back on even if the shot isn't going down, and I believe shooting is one of the easiest skills to teach a young player. 2. Once I started watching full OTE games and really paying close attention to Amen's passing I realized that yes, he legitimately does possess at least one elite basketball skill and shows inconsistent flashes of other ones as well (defense, ballhandling, touch around the rim). He is not just a raw athlete, if you project forward I think he's shown enough to believe he'll at least be good-to-great at everything but shooting in the future, and if the shooting comes along too, watch out. 3. The cherry on top was when I started reading articles and scouting reports about them and realized that both twins have fantastic intangibles and are extremely hard workers who are obsessed with the game of basketball. Sounds to me like they eat, sleep, and breathe hoops. I think intangibles are highly underrated, and most high-profile draft busts have been because of injuries, bad mentality/work ethic, or both. The guys who work hard and really love basketball and want to be great, they will figure out how to stay on the court and contribute as long as they stay healthy (which you can't really control as a front office).
What about his finishing at the rim being around 40% against players way younger and weaker than him? If you can't finish at the rim, can't hit the mid range and can't hit the 3, can you really run an offense? I don't think so. Are you 100% sure that a player who can't finish at the rim and can't hit the 3 can stay on an NBA court? Would love to see a comp. Can a player be an elite passer and be a net negative their whole career? The answer is yes. I think Westbrook and Simmons have proven that you can reach incredible heights individually but if you can't finish or shoot it will always get in the way of the team. There's like 25 seasons and 7 HC's who tried to win with those 2 running the offense. Westbrook is a hard worker, everyone thought he'd for sure improve that shooting. Very good to hear about their off court character. I'm also a big believer that off court character is the quality that breaks expectations. I just worry these guys are too far and too old for improving the quantity of things we're talking about.
Murray was traded less than a year ago for 3 first round picks, Danilo Garillnari, and a swap. His play was on par with his play in San Antonio. The only reasons I think he would be available are because (1) duplicates Trae & (2) due for a pay day next year (as you mentioned). I don't think KPJ is getting traded. Just my real take. I think if you acquire a player ike Murray, KPJ would be willing to be the 6th man (where he could excel).
IIRC he actually finished at a 74% rate around the rim. That does include dunks though. Are you talking about only layups? That is a skill he'll need to work on, since he won't be able to dunk as often in the NBA, but he's shown enough flashes of having a good touch that I think it will come.
To be fair. I said two FRPs (#4 and a top 5 protected 2025 FRP). Plus, Rox take on Collins to give ATL some cap space (subtract a FRP). Give up Garuba and KMJ and Hawks would still have MLE to acquire a forward. Murray was coached by Udoka in SA so I think he might be okay re-upping here. Also, I don't KNOW if Murray is available. It just makes sense when you look at Hawks' roster and lack of success last year. Edit: my apologies @theDude . I now realize that was not directed at me.
He was. Does he still want to sign with the Hawks? Does he want to tie his career to Trae? I would inquire into it. Like I said, offer them a platter of players and our late FRP and go from there. I wouldn’t give up 3 FRP plus players.
So the 40% number was from earlier in the year. Spinella has a screenshot with updated numbers in his latest written breakdown of Amen, and his layup number in the half court are now 50% (~60% overall with dunks in half-court). Think it is a 1.18 PPS overall. These are crazy low sample sizes, so the numbers can kinda jump like crazy with just a few more possessions. But yeah that's actually a good number now. Spinella is listing him as a good finisher now, so I'm not sure I'd worry too much about it. When this topic gets discussed by various folks (including Spinella), I get the impression Amen's issues here are largely due to small, easily fixable things. He's crafty and athletic enough to get to the rim pretty much at will, but he ends up putting too much spin on the ball or targeting a bad angle on the backboard. This is different than someone like JG, who also struggled at the rim some, but I think that was largely due to him *not* being super crafty at the rim. He'd beat you with his quick first step...then just go straight to the rim and try to finish strong (despite being 170-180lbs). To JG's credit, I think he's improved at this quite a bit, but I think Amen is more skilled here, and he can likely get even better with more experience (just like JG). I think the "craft" stuff is harder than getting the right spin on the ball. I do agree his defensive issues are also disappointing. But they seem pretty easily fixable (they seem to be technique based, not so much effort or lack of ability), but I'd like to see him do better there. I think his shot is his big red flag, as I think his finishing and defense while a bit concerning seem fairly fixable with reps/coaching. Even his shot will improve with that stuff, but I don't know if that is good enough. So with Amen, IMO you're basically getting a guy who can be elite at a lot of things...except for shooting. If you think he can get to around 33% (~1pps) on 3s overall, then he's probably a multi-time all-star. Even if he's around 28%-30%, maybe he's still *pretty* good due to his athleticism and BBIQ, as he can maybe beat guys in isolation vs needing a screen. If he's around 20%, then yikes. Part of the reason I'm happy taking Amen @ 4 is that I think in order to win a championship, you're going to need some guys that are top 10-15 in the NBA. This is especially true when you look at teams like OKC, who might have 3-4 guys in the top 30 or so (and SGA is already top 10ish I think?). Someone like Taylor Hendricks, Anthony Black, etc. might be more likely to end up better than Amen, but if they're not more likely to be top 15 or so, then I don't think I care (though I *really* like those guys too!). Now if you believe JG, Jabari, Sengun, Tari, etc., might be top 10-15, the calculus changes a bit, but while I like those guys a LOT, I'm not quite there. So give me another shot at a top 10-15 guy.
First, I never said three FRPs from Rox. I am going to presume you are referring to Spurs-Hawks trade. Second, The new Hawks' front office is the one who pushed for the Murray trade (IIRC the old GM quit when the deal went through). They are going to want to save face (and their jobs). They would rather not take a "poo poo" platter. You might be able to get away with just the #4 pick, but a low ball offer ain't going to cut it. Sure you could start with your offer, but I am confident they say no just on optics alone. I have no idea about Murray's relationship with Hawks management, but we all know they were trying to trade Trae and getting no takers. Ergo, one of those PGs has to go. Unless they hire D'Antoni who made it work with CP3 and Beard. (I honestly think that was what the Hawks were thinking that they could recreate.)
I think you're right, I must have misread it but 40-50% on layups is still really bad for a guy bigger, taller and older than most of his peers right? From RC's post too it seems this is way less of an issue than I thought. More of something he should be dominating that he's not dominating. That can happen for a variety of non-basketball reasons too so I can see a case there. Thank you this is great. It definitely makes me feel like his individual path can be great but it leaves me concerned that he could be a Westbrook. He could even get to an MVP level but become an issue in clutch and playoff situations. Ever since Dwight's FT issues I'm weary of taking on unfixable core flaws that will inevitably get in our way. It's a really confusing situation because on the face of it he could average a triple double and win an MVP award but if you told me he's going to be Russell Westbrook I'm not sure I'd even want to spend a top 10 pick on him. The kind of issue that may put his fate outside his control and in the control of opponent HC's. I really want this guy to be good. He's an insanely explosive player both physically and mentally. I always loved watching Westbrook on other teams. Perhaps a lot of that has to do with the garbage offensive coaching WB received the first 10 years of his career (Brooks, Donovan). In fact in that half a season under MDA we saw - in my opinion - the only path to making WB a net positive player and if he had been put in that role from day 1 it might have altered the trajectory of his career. That is to say, even if we draft WB maybe he doesn't end up like Westbrook ended up. If he's coming off the bench while we start a level headed vet, that would require a lot of patience but could be an underrated path that pays dividends in 3-4 years. Very interesting prospect. I'm HIGHLY risk averse and patient this summer though because I believe our young guys are better than people think and people are judging them by their artificially deflated stats. I think we are 1 prime star and 2 excellent role players away from letting this marinate into a top tier contender. I'm not sure we need to swing for a home run as many people do.
No problem. It’s good to see a plan laid out no matter what. And I agree that the Hawks roster is a mess and what they are doing has not worked. Time to be predatory.
So what is your take on Anthony Black? He is even taller and a better shooter (still bad), passer and defender than Amen. He is less athletic but still a plus athlete. He has some problem with turnovers, but that seems to be coachable. For me, at 4, I‘d take Black.
I like him. I would seriously consider him if Amen and Scoot are both off the board. Black is more polished than Amen and is probably a safer bet to be some kind of contributor at the NBA level, but I'm not sure if I see star-level upside from him; he may be closer to something like a taller Markelle Fultz unless his jump shot really comes a long way. About his shooting, keep in mind he was shooting from the college 3P line whereas Amen was shooting from the NBA 3P line. I think Amen has significantly more upside thanks to his physical tools, so I have him over Black even though his skills are more raw. You can envision Amen someday being an MVP contender. Not sure if I really see that with Black.
I am. The whole point is to be predatory towards teams that have underperformed. I wouldn’t give up the #4 pick in this trade, especially if we are taking back Capela. If they don’t bite then more on.
Yeah and to be fair to Westbrook, he's actually a decent FT shooter...mostly. Career 78% FT shooter, and even his bad years (4 of the last 5), he's shot around 66%, which isn't great, but probably alright as a FT shooter to avoid hacks (also what Amen is roughly shooting now I guess). For comparison, Dwight is a career 57% FT shooter with multiple seasons under 50%. I will say I only now noticed that Amen only had like 65 FTAs in the OTE season (plus more in playoffs and other settings). That's not a lot, and if he was tweaking his mechanics a lot, I'm not sure there's a good sample size of where he'll end up (good or bad). Anyway, as for the Westbrook comp in general, I think if Amen essentially becomes a taller, smarter Westbrook, that's....pretty good. Honestly, if Westbrook cut out those mid-range shots (like 30% of his shots were from 10ft up to the 3pt line for his career), his TS% and overall numbers might be better. Also for some reason, I thought his rim finishing slumped at times, though his numbers I see seem alright (though from 3-10 feet, maybe not ideal). I think Amen could probably be a better passer than Westbrook too, and hopefully a much better defender. But that's still a pretty high overall bar to hit, even if we do like to diss Westbrook on CF (for good reason).
I think the universe has been bringing Dejounte and KPJ head to head for like 10 years now and Dejounte almost always wins no matter when or where they play. KPJ always looks shattered after playing Dejounte. It's this weird thing where way before the NBA and in the NBA, they keep getting matched up and KPJ can never seem to get over that hump of beating a player he believes he's better than. I'm telling you this because I think KPJ might have a heart attack if he's backing up Dejounte. However, that may be the trauma he needs to turn his career around. I really like the idea and agree that the Hawks will trade one of Trae or Murray (most likely Murray). Since his contract is shorter and his performance has flatlined, I would imagine it would cost less than what they paid for him. I love the fit with Udoka. Murray's only issue is he's not the scorer he thinks he is and needs slightly better shot selection and needs to re-commit to playing elite defense. That's a super easy fix and very little risk involved. How awesome would it be to have a PG who plays defense too?
