Astros get: RHP German Marquez Rockies get: RHP Hunter Brown OF Chas McCormick RHP Bryan Abreu RHP Jake Odorizzi
When it comes to the post season obviously luck and health play a part but there also are some players that are better at playing against other elite players. That can be bullpen arms, hitters or starters... some players can pad their stats in less stressful situations or against non elite players. I know that this isn't something that a lot of people agree with but it is something I have personally noticed over the years.... it is also why some teams will pay a premium for someone with solid numbers and strong skill sets. For example the Astros paid a lot for Graveman, and some of that is because he has the stuff to do well against the top hitters.... Someone like Lance McCullers may not seem like an ace, but he has the raw stuff to be elite. He has warts, but at the end of the day he doesn't give up many hits and he seldom gives up hard hits... so he can get tough outs.
Pitchers that can't get a swinging strike (especially those that can't in the zone), and batters with a weakness are typically the ones that don't perform as well in the postseason. Though, I think it is a small set of players that are good in the regular season and bad in the postseason not counting randomness.
I have no idea what it would take, but if we lose Correa, which looks likely; what would you think of a trade attempt for Perez with his 4 year $20M plus 5th year option? Bring in Pena, but replace the numbers in the lineup at at Catcher. Perez will be 32 and coming off his best season while KC could decide to go for the rebuild. 1. Altuve 31 2B R 126 2024 2. Brantley 35 L LF 120 2022* 3. Gurriel 38 R 1B 131 2022* 4. Alvarez 25 L DH 136 2025 5. Bregman 28 R 3B 113 2024 6. Tucker 25 L RF 145 2025 7. Pena SS 24 R SS (110) 2027 8. Meyers 25 R CF 100 2027 9. Perez 32 R C 126 2026 Bench McCormick Jones Maldenado Castro Diaz Or would bringing up Kori Lee (or sticking with Maldenado and Castro) and putting the money toward Verlander be better?
KC will never trade Perez. They just signed him to an extension. Trading for him coming off his best season ever would also be very stupid.
From what I can recall, OBP is the #1 thing in postseason baseball. High K power guys can feast on walks against lesser pitchers, but we saw in 2017 and 2019 that despite the Yankees offense being elite in the regular season, their enormous K rate killed them in the playoffs. In the regular season, you can wait for a pitcher to make a mistake and hammer it. In October, such mistakes become far more rare. Hopefully, the Astros proficiency against fastballs (#1 in the majors) works to turn great pitches against other teams into mistakes against us.
I'd take it step farther and call it contact. Can you start a rally by getting on base? Can you sacrifice the runner over to 2nd or in from 3rd? Putting balls in play is way more important in the playoffs than the regular season. The Astros offensive strength over the last few seasons is having a deep lineup of contact-leaning hitters. Obviously most of them can mash too, but just advancing runners in the playoffs and not wasting an AB on a K is a huge deal. The Yankees have struggled with their power hitters striking out in the playoffs but also not having anyone on base to drive in.
Its two different approaches to hitting elite pitching. The Astros seem to enjoy getting deeper into counts and fouling off well executed pitches, taking hittable pitches for singles or doubles. The other way is to pray they make a mistake over the plate and make the most use of what few hits you get by taking them deep. Both ways aren't that productive, hitting elite pitching is hard, But the latter is overcome by proper execution and forcing the batter into guessing games, the former is really only stopped by BABIP luck (which can still end your season).
Not really interested in trading for any players this off season. I would prioritise trading away the players Click brought in for 2021. Re signing a few of our free agents might make sense if they willing to sign reasonable deals.
Not surprised as at the end of the day the fundamental need is to make contact. The Astros have some guys that can really hit… Gurriel just won the batting title, Brantley finished second…. Tucker was in the top 10… even guys like Correa, Altuve and Yordan are in the top 25 of the AL… the Astros have 6 of the top 25 in the AL.
If the Astros lose Correa, they really would be smart to look at trading for Contreras. He would off set a lot of the offense lost by Correa and stretches the line up. He will only be under contract one year so the trade cost should be reasonable. The offensive improvement from Maldonado to Contreras is massive. The Astros can then try a rookie SS or try to sign someone like Story to a short term deal and be almost as good or possibly better if they get offense at SS and catcher… An off season of dealing for Contreras, signing a bat like Story to a big one year deal and getting Verlander for the QO would be a great outcome. The concern would be the pen at that point. Not sure what kind of money Graveman will get.
I will be watching these playoffs to see 2 things: 1. Can one (or more) of McCullers, Valdez, Garcia, and/or Urquidy get established as a reliable playoff starter. McCullers’ playoff chops are bonafide, but he has yet to make the jump from “guy you’re cool with as your #3” to “guy nobody wants to face in Game 2 of a playoff series”. Valdez, Garcia, and Urquidy are relatively untested in the playoffs. If any of those guys puts up multiple dominant starts this month, I think it takes a lot of pressure off Click this offseason. If none of them step up, the imperative to add an established ToR SP (or two) gets bigger. 2. How do Meyers/McCormick/Siri handle the playoffs. If one of those guys shows the clutch gene and the ability to succeed against playoff pitching then I think it takes a lot of pressure off Click to replace Correa’s offense (outside of Pena). If they all flounder, then not only does Click probably need to insure the lineup against Pena struggling, but he also may need to address CF (or catcher) with a more established offensive option. If McCullers, Valdez, and Meyers show really well this month, the offseason could be as simple as Verlander accepting a QO and Click paying for 2 elite RP.
Valdez dominated in the playoffs last season. With the starters, it seems there's a big dropoff after LMJ/Valdez unless Garcia regains his former performance. The pitchers will need to be on short leashes and Dusty has his work cut out for him in managing these games. All-in-all, I don't see this team prevailing if the offense doesn't show up and score 4+ regularly. I don't see them winning many 3-2 type games with this pitching staff.
I think the Astros are going to have to end up winning with their grit. They aren’t head and shoulders better than their opponents this go around. But they have youth, veterans, and playoff experience. Even if they do manage to get to the World Series, the National league is a bonafide monster; Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals, Milwaukee (Braves not so much)…. But Astros can play with anyone, and have as a good a chance to win. Of course, that’s assuming the pitching hold up. Greinke was playing like an ace for a good portion of the season, until the wheels seemed to fall off, now he’s very pedestrian looking. Greinke was who I thought was going to be the number 1, with McCullers being the #2, and Valdez being the #3.
I don’t think it would shock any of us if McCullers or Valdez ripped off a string of dominant 5 inning performances, although it wouldn’t shock us if either of them got bounced early either. I do think it would surprise most of us if Garcia or Urquidy showed out.
Astros have very capable starters. But they don’t seem to have the imposing Ace that has all the tricks under his sleeve. Urquidy, Garcia, Javier, Odorizzi, and Greinke are solid to average pitchers right now. Will Greinke get a start and be on a short leash? Or will Greinke come out off the bullpen in relief? Who’s the third and fourth starters? If it come to needing a fourth starter.
Why would they trade for a catcher? They view Korey Lee as a future star and have two of the very best at what they do calling a game/framing/throwing out runners under contract next season
The idea is to replace as much of the value you lose when Correa leaves by upgrading other positions if the Astros go with an unknown at SS like Pena. Lee is blocked next year by Maldonado and Castro so why would it matter if it is Contreras and Maldonado blocking him? Obviously, you trade Castro in this scenario. Maldonado was a 0.2 WAR player this season. Contreras in a bad season for him was a 2.1 WAR player. That helps close the gap in what you lose when Correa leaves.
