We finally got most of the pitching staff healthy. We can now start to try and sort out who can really help us. And depending how we look, only then would I begin to consider upgrades elsewhere.
It’s possible he’s overvalued. Thru 65.1 MLB innings, he has a stellar 2.76 era and a great 93.5 FB velo. But his xFIp is a mediocre 4.32 and his overall value is a very average 0.7 fWAR. If Houston thinks he is over performing and wants to add a star player, Garcia is the obvious trade chip they can cash in. Obviously if they buy the era long term, then he’s an ace and should be untouchable.
I'd prefer Buxton. I called out Haniger because his salary will only be about $1.5M after the deadline and would likely be close to fitting under the CBT without another move. Personally, the only trades I expect are for bullpen guys or to remove guys from the 40-man. Tough thing about speculating trades for bullpen help is that it is tough to keep up with who's emerging as a high leverage arm, available, and who's arm isn't overworked.
Aside from what the Astros do... I'm hoping that guys we could be interested in during the offseason get traded before the deadline so they won't have a qualifying offer attached. Hoping Starling Marte and some of the SS free agents get moved.
I would go: To Rangers: Tyler Ivey Abraham Toro To Astros: Ian Kennedy To Royals: Forrest Whitley Freudis Nova Colin Barber To Astros: Andrew Benetindi Scott Barlow Slide Tucker to center... not ideal but an upgrade with a couple of defensive replacements on the bench... Barlow and Kennedy give the bullpen some live arms that can punch guys out...
This is a big question for me. Javier, Urquidy, and Garcia all have hoppy fastballs, generate a lot of batted balls that are hit under the ball by pitching up in the zone, and have extreme ERA-FIPs (less than -1) for their careers even with Javier's case of the barrels lately. To me, it looks like like the Astros are developing pitchers with hoppy fastballs in a way that may generates batted balls in play with lower than average run values. As FIP and xFIP assume pitchers have zero control over balls batted in play, FIP and xFIP may overestimate the ERAs for Astros with hoppy fastballs if this is the case. While I expect regression from those three, I do think they will maintain some batted ball in play quality control as starters provided they don't strike out and walk too many guys (as relievers, they may limit the batted balls enough that there isn't much of a difference). I think the Dodgers have also figured some things out about limiting damage on balls in play.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/06/top-mlb-trade-deadline-candidates-rumors.html Starling Marte and Michael Taylor are the only 2 CF listed among the Mlbtr top 40 trade candidates. Joey Gallo is also on the list and can play CF serviceably. Adam Frazier, Mitch Haniger, David Peralta, Robbie Grossman, Kole Calhoun, Trey Mancini, and Nick Castellanos could all play RF if the Astros are willing to move Tucker to CF.
I don't believe the Astros have any plans to move Tucker to CF. He hasn't played a single inning there since 2018. Gimmie Starling Marte, Yimi Garcia, and enough cash to stay under the luxury tax I'd give up Solomon and Nova
To me, Starling Marte and Kendall Gravemen seem like the best fits for Houston's needs. Marte is a rental who they may like enough to try to extend, and who based on surplus value should be affordable, but if no other good CF are available then he will be in high demand. Graveman is a closer-quality reliever who hasn't been overused and doesn't have a high salary, although it's always next to impossible to predict who teams will target when shopping for bullpen help.
Toro doesn't have a ton of value at his age and production. Ivey could sell tickets and possibly be in their rotation for 5 years startingright away... solid haul for a lower tier closer... I like the idea of using Kennedy after Greinke in his starts...
Graveman has been in quarantine in San Diego for Covid since May 23rd. Last update I saw was 3 days ago and was still stuck in quarantine. It probably means he legit has it or he can't get a negative test. Going to have see him come back and pitch before I get excited about him. We saw how long Urquidy was stuck at home last year.
Buxton is definitely the best option available but I imagine will require a huge haul. Maybe it’s worth it for a year and a half run? I’m expecting nothing special at the deadline. If we go CF I’m thinking the best we’ll get is Michael Taylor. Relievers like Tony Watson, Iglesias, Anthony Bass, Clippard, Tanner Scott, or Soria.
I hadn't thought about the QO issue with respect to failing to extend Correa. Odd they didn't make a more serious offer to him (unless they did and we didn't hear about it) when they are set up to afford a high priced SS beginning next season but, as you note, will lose a draft pick if that SS is a FA.
Snake, you just do NOT get it!! You think you do but you don't. You're too busy trying to be a wanna be GM. In a game where pitching is EVERYTHING, why in the world would ANY team trade away a young pitcher (who's not just a prospect in the minors but rather someone who's had some really strong outings in the majors)? They control him for the foreseeable future and with JV not here and Greinke possibly leaving after this year again why trade away a d@%m good YOUNG pitcher who is blossoming right before our eyes and could potentially be a star?? And you want to trade him for someone like Bumgarner because he's "possibly overvalued" in your eyes?? With Valdez, Urquidy, Javier and Garcia (young pitchers who are under team control for the next 3-5 yrs) you count your blessings and hold on to these guys and try to strengthen areas of weakness.
