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2021 Spring Training

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by J.R., Feb 22, 2021.

  1. Nick

    Nick Contributing Member

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    If Yordan isn’t taking BP... and isn’t doing field workouts... what exactly is he doing? And when will he be cleared to be a baseball player again?
     
  2. bobrek

    bobrek Person, woman, man, camera, TV
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    Stretching.... attending team meetings
     
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  3. htownbball

    htownbball Member

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    Bregman put on 27lbs this offseason??!! He better hit 50 homers
     
  4. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Per Dusty, Altuve doesn't like leadoff spot and Tucker is too valuable in middle of the order with his RBIs.
     
  5. MrBear1

    MrBear1 Contributing Member

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    I am going to Sunday's game, blah on Bielak :(
     
  6. sealclubber1016

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    You're gonna see the starter for 2 innings at the most, probably just one.

    I get the feeling Click is gonna have to put his foot down when it comes to the leadoff hitter, because there's no chance Dusty's gonna choose to, in his mind, "waste" a productive bat in the leadoff spot.
     
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  7. cmlmel77

    cmlmel77 Member
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    I love spring training optimism:
    * Bregman gained 25 pounds. Monster year coming!
    * Yuli lost 20 pounds. Monster year coming!
    * Yordan coming back just as he was before. Monster year coming!

    (I actually really do love the optimism. Positivity is rare these days in Houston sports.)
     
    #67 cmlmel77, Feb 26, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2021
    rockbox, arkoe, The Beard and 5 others like this.
  8. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    #68 J.R., Feb 26, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2021
  9. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    People's plans to play Alvarez in LF so Souza or Toro can DH have been foiled.
     
  10. MrBear1

    MrBear1 Contributing Member

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    I am aware, big Astros fan here. I go to Spring Training every year.

    I just hate Bielak lol
     
  11. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Maybe Straw is actually badass and only the Astros know?

    Or maybe Baker knows the Astros cannot fire him so he’s going to use his old school thinking when it comes to lineup creation, which means “fast guy bats leadoff and bunts a lot”.
     
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  12. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    I hope so. Altuve not liking leadoff puts a damper on things as he's a nice compromise between good hitter and the classic leadoff hitter (though, caught stealing is much more frowned upon now).
     
    #72 Joe Joe, Feb 26, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2021
  13. marks0223

    marks0223 Astros STILL 2017 Champions
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  14. awc713

    awc713 Member
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    If you think about it...Astros don’t really need Straw to replace George. They need Tucker to replace George and Straw to replace Reddick. That sounds a lot more doable/plausible. Obviously we all love and will miss George, and everything about him can’t be replicated by anyone else, but hopefully Tucker comes through and replaces at least a good portion of George’s production.
     
  15. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Exactly. Looking at the role or type of impact each major player on this year's roster needs to have to be on par with Astros' rosters from 2017-2020:

    • 4 hitters were on each contending team, and just need to have years on par with their previous 4: Bregman, Altuve, Gurriel, and Correa
    • Astros' catchers have never been counted on much for offense (from 2017 thru 2020: McCann, Gattis, Chirinos, Maldonado)
    • DH/LF has been a mixed bag (Gattis/Beltran in 2017, Marwin/Kemp in 2018, Alvarez/Brantley in 2019, Brantley/Tucker in 2020), so Brantley/Alvarez projects to be far better than they have averaged at LF/DH during this run.
    • Since Reddick/Springer were the primary RF/CF from 2017 thru last year, they're effectively being replaced by Tucker/Straw. Springer averaged roughly 140 wRC+ from 2017-2020, while Reddick was about ~105 wRC+. Tucker's 2021 projects are in the 112-122 range, while Straw's are 77-91. To awc's point, Straw (with his defense factored in) projects to be roughly as valuable of a player as Reddick has been and is a fine replacement for him. So Tucker is really who the Astros should be hoping takes a step beyond his projections. But all in all, the projected shortfall in total value between 2017-2020 Reddick/Springer and 2021 Tucker/Straw is only about 1 fwar.
    • Same analysis applies on the pitching side. I think it's clear that the 2021 rotation is a big downgrade when compared to 2018 (Verlander, Cole, Morton, Keuchel, and McCullers was probably one of the most talented of all time). But it certainly appears to be better than last year's (Valdez, Greinke, McCullers, Javier, and a smattering), and what is doesn't measure up to from 2017/2019 at the front end (Valdez/Greinke are no Keuchel/Morton or Verlander/Cole) it makes up for in back end upside (Urquidy/Javier/etc. have potential to be much better than Fiers/Peacock, Miley/Peacock, and Javier/Bielak).
    • The bullpen should be fine too. I would take 2021 Pressly over 2017 Giles, 2018 Rondon, and 2019 Osuna; Baez rates fine against 2017 Gregerson, 2018 Peacock, 2019 Josh James, and 2020 Enoli Paredes; Joe Smith (or whoever the next guy in line ends up being) works fine when compared to Devenski/McHugh/Scrubb.

    This team will be fine. They may need to make an impactful deadline move for a SP, CF, or Closer, but that's only if things don't play out in their favor.
     
  16. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    While I agree with the logic behind this (Tucker/Straw shouldn't be much worse than George/Reddick) and still think Astros have a great team, George isn't the only one gone. Verlander is gone or mostly gone. If Tucker is replacing George, who replaces Tucker? Some guys (Greinke, Gurriel) are getting older and hopefully have another good year or 2 left.

    FanGraphs has the Astros as about 8 wins worse than this time last year in talent (before injuries). I think they undersell Javier a lot, but even applying orange colored glasses, that's a good 5-6 win drop in talent (i.e., mostly Verlander). Astros will be much better than they did while injured/banged up/worn out last year, but that isn't a high bar.
     
    #76 Joe Joe, Feb 26, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2021
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  17. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    #77 J.R., Feb 26, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2021
  18. rhino17

    rhino17 Member

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    Then how about Correa leading off?
     
  19. awc713

    awc713 Member
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    wow...didn’t realize Pena was yolked
     
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  20. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I don't think he was built like that before he was drafted, and I heard an interview with him where he said he spent a lot of 2020 lifting. Looks like he used the off year to work. That's an example of why I think we will see prospects wildly outperform or underperform expectations. Without a season last year guys were largely unsupervised, so innate work ethic and intelligence probably determined how they used their time. Hopefully this is something that gives an advantage to the Astros.
     
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