Why not stick with prospects? I doubt a broken finger will keep Framber on the shelf but for a few weeks and it’s better it happened in the first couple of days of spring training. Id rather give Whitley, Abreu, Garcia a shot and keep the little funds available for the deadline to address a need. If we signed another starter and Framber comes back from the DL that likely means having to waive a good young prospect too make room and taking a bullpen spot away from Abreu, Garcia, gulp..Paredes or Taylor.
Valdez is likely out for the season. The main advantage of signing a veteran is they can eat innings and you believe you have a better idea of what to expect. I don’t think adding one veteran capable of a lot of innings is a bad idea. If Crane is willing and Jake Odorizzi is reasonable, he is the one guy out there I think would actually do more than eat innings, and possibly stabilize the rotation.
Francis Martes sighting yesterday. A scoreless IP with 2 k’s. Hoping he can at least be a weapon out of the pen or contribute at some capacity. The talent is still there
Odorizzi is probably the best left, but that isn't saying much. FanGraphs projections for him look better than I would expect. His inning eating would be beneficial for the regular season. I'm not sure he would make the postseason roster. Maybe he makes it as an expendable arm in case of a blow out.
You know our pitching staff is in trouble when people are making "Francis Martes may make a difference this season" post. This is a guy who's undergone Tommy John and then been suspended for steroids twice, since his memorable 2017 where he posted a 5.80 ERA for the Stros.
If Odorizzi could post 150 innings of sub 4.4 ERA, I think that would be immensely valuable given how risky the alternative is (a lot of completely non competitive games). I don't normally put much value in eating innings, but our rotation right now is absurdly thin when it comes to likely innings pitched. Given how many arms we're losing I don't think giving Odorizzi a multi year deal is a bad idea at all. However signing him likely eats up most of whatever luxury tax space we have, maybe need to exceed it. For that reason, I think Click will likely try (or be forced) to go cheaper for the innings eater, and trade for a better starter if it becomes necessary. We just need a guy to not be completely terrible every 5th day. Lets just hope for surprisingly positive news on Framber.
If he could do that, I'd be very happy. I'm still iffy on whether his 2019 fastball revival holds. It went from crap to awesome with a 2 mph increase. Prior to the increase in velocity, he looked like a pitcher that peaked early and was getting worse.
Dude chill. He gave pertinent info and never said he was an expert or gave a time frame for when he would come back. I appreciated the info, what was the harm in him sharing it. If he was acting like he was an expert and proclaiming a healing date I would be right with you but all info is good info in my opinion.
Not trying to be a dick here but how accurate are these predictions? I am actually amazed at how many predictive numbers and percentages people throw around when talking baseball teams and players. It seems to me that losing somebody like Framber would be huge on win totals but then we are talking about a variable between 2 and 5 games but I guess that shows there are so many variables that come into play when a game is played and who wins and loses. If the variable is only 5 games I would not be chasing a guy like Odorizzi unless he would be a big difference maker. Interested to see what Abreu can be.
For the 70% prediction, teams of similar estimated quality, schedule to the Astros (prior to assumption Valdez is out for entire year) missed the playoffs about 30% of the time and made the playoffs about 70% of the time. Preseason win projections predict second half winning percentages better than actual 1st half winning percentages. 5 wins would be huge. Though Valdez, like almost every pitcher wasn't expected to be 100% healthy and had injury built into his projection some what. Losing Valdez probably won’t hurt the preseason playoff odds too much. Though, it opens up risk dramatically as Astros don't have that many starters in reserve for the next injury until Pruitt and James are healthy. [Ducks flying objects at mention of James].
The difference was 5-10%, not 5 games. Actually, a 5 game swing would be gigantic. Not many players move the needle more than 5 games. The reason the Astros' chances change so much is that both the Astros and As are expected to win about 87 games. A number of wild card type teams are also in the same ballpark. So a small difference in predicted wins makes a huge difference in our chance at making the playoffs. If the Astros were the Dodgers, the risk of missing out entirely would be much less.
Yeah that makes sense, I get it but when they play 162 games 5 games does not seem a lot and I guess I am used to the Astros running away with the division. Good stuff I am here for all data. 5 games were used as well but I think that was for Valdez himself.
Moving him to the pen when you have ample starting pitching and some young pitchers you want to give a chance to is one thing, moving him to the pen without Verlander and Valdez is another.
Pitchers get hurt. Last year, James started the year. This year, Astros had 5 starting pitchers and a few guys in the minors that might be good. At no point have the Astros had enough starting pitching in recent memory to be able to entertain the thought that any starter innings LMJ pitches would not be beneficial.
Personally I would reach out to Cole Hamels and offer him a one year deal for not a lot of money and see if he bites. He isn't what he once was, but he still gets it done well enough.
