I didn’t say he didn’t need his ring finger, I said most pitches the ring finger makes minimal contact. Depending on where the fracture is and if it actually is a condylar fracture, certain grips (mainly change up) will hurt. The actual recovery is short, the strength of and range of motion will take longer. Mine took about 2 months for no pain. And I’m using that finger and hand even more than a pitcher in my field.
Yes, I am very aware of this. Probably more so than most. The severity of it will play a huge part in time frame. And specifically for the fracture I’m talking about, the longest part is rehab. Not healing.
Wow... in that case, why aren't you calling James Click and offering your services? Or at least tell him your story, I'm sure they'll take that as the second opinion and run with it...
Yep. I don't understand the rationale of he might miss some or all the time as a starter so let's guarantee the worst case that he misses all his time as a starter by moving him to the pen. Being in the pen provides value, but not on the same scale as that as a starter in the regular season.
Listen Dick, I’m just giving a similar scenario. Calm your t***. A season is pretty extreme unless there were several displacement or comminuted.
that's fine... I'd just avoid comparing your exact situation, and your recovery, to that of an MLB pitcher... unless you're in fact an MLB pitcher.
That and people forgetting that everybody in this game gets hurt. Some who've never gotten hurt before. Some who will end up pitching far less than LMJ ends up pitching over these 2-3 years.
Or an athlete in Olympic sports and coach that works with his hands more than most. That is the only reason I said something. I don’t know what the diagnosis exactly is. I get that. Him pitching after says it’s not a severe fracture, I’m just assuming what the diagnosis is. IF it is a grade 1-2 unicondylar fracture. Even the most conservative time frame is 2-3 months.
Honestly I’m just hoping for a minor fracture that they’re being overly cautious about. Couple percutaneous pins and some rehab.
Click will not overreact. It’ll be fine. He’ll root through Whitley, Abreu, Garcia, and Bielak over the course of 2-3 months before overpaying to replace Valdez. Just like last season, this is an opportunity to give their young pitching a shot to get established. Out for the season over a broken finger sure would be a nut punch though.
That would be a fairly risky move considering the Astros currently have a 70% chance of making the playoffs per FG and losing Framber for the season could mean losing 3-5 wins.
Framber was projected for 2.8 wins, so more like 2-3, assuming he was replaced with a replacement level prospect. Likely impact is 1-2 wins.
The 70% odds factor in Framber missing almost half the season. My guess is that Astros odds of making the playoffs will drop to 60-65% when FG updates their playoff odds tomorrow. Signing Odorizzi to a gimmick contract that lowers his AAV such that Astros can fit under CBT would probably keep the Astros playoff odds at 70%. Not sure Astros can get Odorizzi to sign a gimmick contract and I'm not sure of the Astros view of Whitley.
They should hurry up and sign Jake Odorizzi before someone else does and hopefully Strom can get him right
The projection systems are naturally going to be conservative when taking into account his performance last season, but he was so consistently good last year over a decent sample when combining regular/post seasons that I would put 3 wins as a floor for him in a healthy season. Also, although I think they would eventually find some production, there’s no guarantee guys like Bielak and Whitley provide above replacement level production this season. Bielak was awful last season and Whitley hasn’t looked good in a decent sample in years. They might have to sort through some significant negative production before they can find a competent replacement internally.
But you cited Fangraphs projections for total wins and losses, which are based on the same projections system for player value. So if you’re going to relate losing Valdez to the impact on Houstons w/L record and playoff odds, you are referring to losing his 2.8 wins. Whitley is projected for 0.2 wins over 55 innings, Garcia 0.3 over 47. So dividing Frambers innings between those 2 likely has a net effect of about 2 wins. You can argue Framber is worth more than 2.8 and/or the young guys are below replacement level, but that’s not what the projections say. I think all those guys have pretty wide ranges of potential outcomes. Valdez had a great 2020 but prior to that was worth 0.1 fWAR over about 100 innings. He could have been a 4-5 win ace, but he also could have regressed back to the replacement level player he was before, even if he’d stayed healthy. Whitley was one of the top 10 prospects in all of baseball a couple years ago. But he hasn’t done Jack diddly squat since. So his upside is massive, but so is his downside. It is totally plausible for him to break out and post a 3-4 win season over 120 innings. Garcia, Abreu, and all the others are similar. It wouldn’t shock me one way or another for any of them to break out and be a 3 win pitcher or be totally worthless. But the most likely outcome is they hit somewhere close to their projections, on balance. If there’s going to be a big variance, my guess would be it would be to the upside, because I trust Click and Strom to know which prospect to try first and which ones will exceed their projections. But all in all, I would trust the projections that losing Valdez only means a 1-3 win net impact.
I don't understand how a finger injury could knock somebody out for the whole season. Did he accidentally stick it in a ****ing grinder after the game??
Brandon Bielak is not the solution to anything. Hitters figured him out midway through last season. Either Garcia, Whitley and Abreu step up or Click will have to see if a starter like Porcello, Hamels or Peacock (if his shoulder is healed) would be willing to take reasonable money to sign with the team. Odorizzi would be great, but that would push the Astros very close to the CBT with little wiggle room at the trade deadline.
