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2021 NFL Draft Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Texans' started by gucci888, Jan 28, 2021.

  1. gucci888

    gucci888 Contributing Member

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    If available in the 3rd, absolutely. Think there is a decent chance he goes later in the 1st after the initial run on QBs.
     
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  2. raining threes

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    What does this have to do with not drafting Fields?
     
  3. raining threes

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    Such BS, do you view life through the prism of race. I don't and I'm not really interested in a person with your mindset thoughts on much of anything. How can you call a person a racist because he points out obvious flaws like not being accurate outside the pocket in Mond's game.


    Taylor is a below avg starter but is good enough to get his team to the playoffs. He's not good enough to win a championship. I thought this was obvious when I made that post. Obviously not.
     
  4. primtim24

    primtim24 Contributing Member

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    You sound a little defensive buddy, I was just asking what the definition of Taylor type was. I wasn't sure what aspect of Taylor's game you were referencing. Because Taylor also has an uncanny ability to protect the football and is an accurate and safe passer. So I just wanted to be sure.

    The Bears would've loved to have a "Taylor type" he's great if low scoring turnover free football is your philosophy.
     
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  5. raining threes

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    Not defensive at all.

    Just dont like the other idiot inferring that I'm a racist.

    If you want to talk Mond's strengths and weaknesses I'm more than willing to do this, but criticism of him like he doesn't throw well outside the numbers and he's very streaky. Played in a 1 read offense etc.... doesn't mean I'm a racist. (Not directed at you)

    Taylor would've been an upgrade over what they had at QB. However Taylor isn't good enough to win a championship with. IMHO
     
  6. primtim24

    primtim24 Contributing Member

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    I agree 100%, Taylor is the same guy as Derek Carr, they'll give you high QB ratings, but they're mostly game managers.
     
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  7. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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  8. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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  9. ROXRAN

    ROXRAN Contributing Member

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    I just want a draft haul trade like we thought use to be possible :/
     
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  10. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    You all should know, when you're watching the draft on espn, that you're getting the opinion of a man who eats pizza thusly:

    “This is what I do, Pablo [Torre],” Kiper said at the 21:07 mark of the pod. “I take the cheese off. I take the cheese off the pizza, ok? And I eat the pizza with mashed potatoes. So mashed potatoes and pizza without cheese is what I do. Now, you say — and I think I’m healthy because I’m not eating the cheese, right? I don’t eat the cheese, I just leave a little on there for the flavor. You’re just like, ‘Why do you get away…’ the cheese does give you the flavor, and I do leave a little bit on … just a liiiiittle, just a liiiiittle, but it’s mostly just the sauce and the dough, and then I put the mashed potatoes on it, and that’s what I do.”
     
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  11. Sooty

    Sooty Contributing Member

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    With the 67th pick … what are the Texans getting in their top 2021 NFL Draft selection?

    [​IMG]
    By Aaron Reiss

    When the Texans finally come on the clock in the 2021 NFL Draft, at pick No. 67, general manager Nick Caserio might take an extra moment to savor the experience. It’ll be his first time making a pick as a GM. It also probably won’t result in a difference-making player.

    That’s not an indictment of Caserio or the Texans; it’s just the math. Despite the months NFL personnel people spend evaluating prospects while fans argue about them, the draft remains rather random. After all, quarterbacks Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, the top two picks in 2016, both became salary dumps this offseason in trades away from the teams that drafted them and handed them second contracts.

    Folks inside the Texans’ war room will hope to secure a gem with one of their eight mid-to-late-round picks, but what’s a realistic outcome for whomever the Texans draft at 67th overall?

    To find an answer, it’s best to examine history but broaden the scope of the search beyond that one pick. Let’s instead look at all players drafted between the 60th and 74th picks — in which No. 67 sits in the middle — from 2000-2017. This excludes players who are still on rookie contracts.

    There’s no singular metric that perfectly measures a player’s impact over the course of his career, but Pro Football Reference’s approximate value metric is a good place to start. We sorted our findings from highest to lowest average approximate value at the Texans’ positions of need.

    Wide receivers
    Drafted players: 31
    All-Pros: 3
    Pro Bowlers: 9
    Average seasons as primary starter: 3.35
    Average career approximate value: 28.3

    The Athletic’s Robert Mays recently unpacked the positional scarcity factor in the debate over whether the Bengals should draft offensive lineman Penei Sewell or receiver Ja’marr Chase with the sixth overall pick. The gist is that it’s much easier to find an elite receiver than an elite offensive lineman later in the draft. Of the four position groups we evaluated, this one has the highest concentration of All-Pros (9.6 percent) and Pro Bowlers (29 percent). Allen Robinson, Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, Jarvis Landry and Juju Smith-Schuster all came off the board in this range. So did two-time All-Pro Steve Smith.

    The Texans drafted Jacoby Jones, who enjoyed one All-Pro season as a return man, with the 73rd pick. But Houston’s two other picks in this range, Devier Posey and Jaelen Strong, combined to make 50 catches in their careers with Houston. That’s bad, but it also points to another finding from this research: Even receivers who flame out have high floors, relative to players at other positions drafted in this range. Seventeen of the 31 receivers spent at least three seasons as primary starters for their teams.

    Offensive linemen
    Drafted players: 41
    All-Pros: 1
    Pro Bowlers: 3
    Average seasons as primary starter: 4.3
    Average career approximate value: 28.8

    Of the four groups considered here, offensive linemen had the highest average number of seasons as a primary starter. That’s somewhat inflated by Brad Meester spending 14 seasons as the Jaguars’ center and the fact offensive linemen often don’t rotate, but it’s still noteworthy that 25 of 41 linemen (60.9 percent) spent at least four seasons as primary starters. The slight majority of those 25 — 13 to 12 — are or were tackles. It might be hard to find elite tackles anywhere other than at the top of the draft, as the previously mentioned story by Mays explains, but it appears teams can find competent players all along the offensive line in this portion of the draft.

    The Texans found one of the best offensive linemen selected in this range when they drafted Eric Winston in 2006. He went on to start 87 games for Houston and didn’t miss a game for five straight seasons with the Texans.

    Other notable linemen who came off the board in this range include Larry Warford, who made three straight Pro Bowls with the Saints but sat out last season, and Kelechi Osemele, who earned the group’s lone All-Pro nod with the Raiders in 2015 but has battled injuries each of the past three seasons.

    Defensive linemen and edge rushers
    Drafted players: 49 linemen
    All-Pros: 1
    Pro Bowlers: 7
    Average seasons as a primary starter: 2.6
    Average career approximate value: 20.7

    Like the offensive linemen, this group includes a sizable group of players who are good but not elite — guys such as Frank Clark, Yannick Ngakoue, 10-year veteran Darnell Dockett and former Giants great Justin Tuck, who earned the lone All-Pro nod. But the floor here is lower than it is for offensive linemen. Nineteen of the 49 players have not spent even one season as a primary starter. Twenty-two of 49 (44.8 percent) have career approximate values below 10. For comparison, the same can only be said for six of 41 (14.6 percent) offensive linemen.

    Defensive backs
    Players drafted: 63
    All-Pros: 3
    Pro Bowlers: 6
    Average seasons as primary starter: 2.3
    Average career approximate value: 15.8

    The Arizona Cardinals have lucked out when it comes to selecting defensive backs in this portion of the draft, adding All-Pro safeties Adrian Wilson in 2001 and Tyrann Mathieu in 2013.

    The rest of the league? Not so fortunate.

    By career approximate value, the median player in this group is Gerald Alexander, who played in 44 games with five teams in seven seasons. The safety out of Boise State intercepted four passes and broke up another 14 in his career. That’s solid but far from what the Lions and their fans were probably hoping for when Detroit drafted him 61st overall in 2007.

    It tends to be good practice for teams to draft a defensive back, especially a corner, every year. The reason is twofold: Having an efficient passing game and stopping the pass are the two most important ingredients to success in today’s NFL, and as this research shows, it’s hard to find competent DBs who can hold up in more complicated coverage schemes. Twenty-eight of 63 defensive backs included here had career average values below 10. That’s 44.4 percent, about the same rate as defensive linemen and edge rushers. A third of this group of secondary players started less than 10 games, and 11 of them, including 2011 Texans second-round pick Brandon Harris, started one or zero games in their careers. Even while accounting for the significant amount of rotation that happens in NFL secondaries, starting one or zero games is a bad return on investment, yet it’s happened 17.5 percent of the time.

    So if the Texans select a defensive back with their first pick in the 2021 draft and he ends up being an average starter for two seasons, he’ll exceed reasonable expectations. How’s that for a little pre-draft optimism?
     
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  12. Hank McDowell

    Hank McDowell Member

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    He's incredibly inaccurate. Great athlete, but unless he drops really far I wouldn't touch him. I think he'll be too intriguing though and someone will reach for him, I just truly hope that it's not Houston.
     
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  13. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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  14. Frank Drebin

    Frank Drebin Member

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    Anybody heard any chatter on Davis Mills? I've read some nice scouting reports and Mond does not excite me.
     
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  15. evilhomer

    evilhomer Member

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    Even if the Texans could draft Fields I would have nothing to do with him simply because of whom his agent is.
     
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  16. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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  17. zeeshan2

    zeeshan2 Member

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  18. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    Pro execs, scouts, coaches break down the QB class


    1. Trevor Lawrence
    • "Trevor Lawrence is a really good player," an NFC coordinator said. "I don't know if he's a generational talent like people are saying."
    • Said an AFC quarterbacks coach: ...If I'm comparing last year to this year, Joe Burrow (who was drafted first overall by the Bengals) is picked over Trevor Lawrence 100 times out of 100."
    • "There's just over-scouting that goes on in our league -- like a guy's got to have holes or something," a college scouting director said. "I go back to when [Lawrence] was a freshman -- if he could enter the draft [then], he would've been the first pick to me after his freshman year.

    2. Zach Wilson
    • "Zach Wilson's may be the best I've ever seen," said one general manager who attended. "And his arm is ridiculous."
    • "You watch him flutter some balls around with the bum shoulder and then the broken thumb at the end of [2019] you're not that impressed. Then you watch him this year and he's just f---ing ripping it everywhere," said an NFC scout who studied Wilson extensively. "The kid's smart as s---. He's gonna work. He's gonna compete. He's really talented. It's just a matter of how long that story can play out and not rub some people the wrong way, being a true dude and a leader and that presence."
    • "My man is not a big guy, now," a college scouting director said. "He's got thin shoulders, he's got a thin waist. You get you a couple Tremaine Edmundsand (Dont'a) Hightowers in your s---, and you ain't lasting long."
    • One executive described it last month as "a little bit of Baker Mayfield syndrome, where you like [the edge] to a point. It's just whether or not you can control it and toe the line." Others compare Zach Wilson to Russell Wilson, a seven-time Pro Bowl pick and Super Bowl champion whose relationship with the Seahawks has become strained after nearly a decade in Seattle, with his personal brand growing beyond football.
    • "If I was picking No. 1 -- hoo, man, it'd be hard for me not to take him over Trevor," an AFC quarterbacks coach said. "He's got real playmaking ability. He's shorter (than Lawrence) -- I get it. But he's got ball all about him. He makes plays -- unique plays."

    3. Justin Fields
    • "Justin Fields is uber-talented," an NFC coordinator said. "To me, he is probably a more pure quarterback than Kyler Murray(who was drafted first overall by the Cardinals in 2019), throws it better and he's bigger. I'd love to get my hands on that guy."
    • Media speculation about Fields' work ethic was overblown, though several coaches and scouts said they have questions about Fields' drive based in part on how things for him ended at Georgia after the much less-talented Jake Fromm retained the job in 2018. Others praised Fields for starting a petition and becoming a face of the successful push to get the Big Ten to reconsider its decision to cancel fall football, when he could’ve just turned his attention to the draft. And he showed toughness by missing just one play after a monster hit early in the national semifinal against Clemson, finishing with six touchdown passes in a 49-28 rout of Lawrence and the Tigers.
    • The real question continues to be how well Fields processes and sees the field, coming from an Ohio State offense that's designed to limit what the QB has to read and let him play fast. "He has to see it open," an AFC executive said. "I think you appreciate [Fields' game] more when you see him live, because it's just how he's built. And I think he'll work all f---ing day. But I don't think it's ever been demanded of him from the mental side of the game." Said a coach: "You've got to do your homework, because the fact of the matter is, he's just not being asked to (process) for a lot of things. But you talk to (Ohio State coach) Ryan Day, you talk to those guys out there, they'll tell you he absolutely can. And in the interview, I would tell you yes. There's going to be a learning curve, but I think he can do it, for sure."
    • Several people brought up the struggles of past Ohio State QBs coming from the same system, though as one AFC GM put it: "It's not Fields' fault (Dwayne) Haskins was a [mess]." Fields' hands (9 1/8 inches) are on the smaller side, but big enough.
    • Teams learned through the pre-draft medical process that Fields takes medication to manage epilepsy -- a neurological disorder that can cause seizures, but which hasn't affected Fields' football career, and which doctors are confident he'll grow out of, as other members of his family have.
    • There remain questions about how Fields' quieter personality and leadership style will play in an NFL locker room (though it's worth noting the 2020 Offensive Rookie of the Year, Justin Herbert, faced similar questions during the pre-draft process a year ago). The early word was, Fields didn't really get to know his teammates his first year on campus, focusing solely on winning the job. But Fields was named a captain in 2020, and the people at Ohio State now vouch for him on that front, too. "The people there believe in Justin," an AFC coordinator said. "His ability to throw the deep ball [is exceptional]. He was pissed he ran 4.4 (at the pro day), he kind of stumbled, but that's a big man now that can move. The big thing's going to be, does all this negative publicity make him have a chip on his shoulder? Is he that kind of kid?"

    4. Mac Jones
    • "It's a fit for what [the 49ers] do -- an exact fit for what they do," an AFC GM said. "And [Shanahan's] one of the few coaches that can identify and stand on the table for it."
    • "Mac's 'Bama tape is really, really good. There's no denying that," a college scouting director said. "But you watch him in Mobile -- this doesn't really feel like a big, big, big-time guy. You trade all that s---, for him?"
    • "If you said, 'Take one of these guys to start in a game tomorrow in the NFL,' he's the most ready," an NFC quarterbacks coach said. "But he's right up against the ceiling to me, where these other guys, if they can progress -- you're talking about Justin Fields and Zach Wilson -- those are going to be dangerous dudes now."
    • "I don't even trust the player, let alone that," an AFC executive said. "Who can't throw to four first-rounders and hand the ball to Najee (Harris)?" But those who have spoken to Jones say he comes across as mature and having learned from his mistakes, and the people at Alabama vouch for him -- including teammates Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith, who spoke highly in interviews of Jones even in comparison to Tagovailoa, and former Alabama OC Steve Sarkisian.
    • "The one thing about him that's different than the other [top QBs] is he can come up to the line of scrimmage and he can tell you where he's going with it pre-snap," an NFC scout said. "He's smart enough to know where his outs are and what you're going to do with him based on where the safeties are at and what you're doing on defense. I felt like he was really, really sharp, and Sark says unbelievable things about him."
     
  19. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    5. Trey Lance
    • "If you're making the argument for him, you can put a tape together and say, 'Wow, look at this!' " an AFC quarterbacks coach said. "If you're completely objective -- maybe it's in there, but it's not consistent enough. His accuracy's kind of all over the place. There's no question he's talented. But almost every game, they're the better team, and it's not even close. Their offense is a lot of one-read, find-the-checkdown -- there's not a lot of NFL-style progression offense. You're betting on the come with him completely."
    • "Trey Lance misses way too many throws for me," an NFC quarterbacks coach said. "The game he played this year was atrocious. It was the first one I watched, and honestly, I couldn't believe this was the guy they were talking about."
    • Said a college scouting director: "That's Central f---ing Arkansas. That's bad. It's hard to say, 'We're gonna take this guy top-three' -- what's the best team this guy has ever played? James Madison? That's scary. But I will say, everyone you ever talk to about the kid, the makeup is legitimately through the roof. Whatever the ceiling is, he'll make it."
    • "His interview was amazing. He's a smart m-----f-----. He's 20 years old," said an AFC executive, who downplayed issues with Lance's accuracy. "He's f---ing throwing to me and you. He throws a pretty deep ball. I think the kid has big upside."
    • Some who attended Lance's first pro day March 12 felt he looked tight with his release. "His second workout was much better," said an NFC executive who watched the tape. "He didn't look so mechanical. His motion, it seemed more fluid. I thought he let it rip a little bit more. He showed more movement stuff, in terms of throwing on the run and off-platform -- just more of what his game is."
    • There's still a lot of unknown. But as one NFC GM put it: "Trey Lance has got a chance."
    6. Kellen Mond
    • Multiple sources raised the long-shot possibility of Mond (6-2 5/8, 211) being a surprise first-round pick. But scouts and coaches struggle to get over how stiff Mond looks on tape and in person -- a common thread in Jimbo Fisher-trained QBs, such as Jameis Winston and Christian Ponder. As an AFC executive put it on Mond: "Even though he's fast (4.61 40) and has a good arm, he's like a g--d--- robot." One coordinator compared Mond to another onetime Fisher QB, EJ Manuel. "He's got that Jimbo thing about him," an AFC quarterbacks coach said of Mond. "Jimbo teaches this very stiff elbows in the drop. He kind of looks robotic, and he really shouldn't be a robotic type of guy."
    • He's known as a good note-taker and has a high football IQ. "He's a reserved, quiet dude, but really, really smart," an NFC quarterbacks coach said of Mond. "The thing I get stuck on with him was, there wasn't anything I could say was outstanding about him physically. It's not elite arm strength, it's not consistent down-the-field accuracy. I thought he was going to be more athletic than he is on tape. He's a little stiff."
    • "Jimbo asks a lot of quarterbacks to operate that system, and he's been able to do it even though he looks like a wideout," an AFC scout said. "I don't know if he's necessarily the big, vocal leader presence. We were walking around the Senior Bowl, he had his headphones on, staying in his own world. But on the field, I think the guy's got some moxie about him. And he knows the game."
    7. Kyle Trask
    • "I think he's tough, he's competitive, he was really productive in obviously the toughest division in all of college football," an NFC quarterbacks coach said. "But I would watch him sometimes -- the lower half is so heavy and slow. He looks hurt. He wears that big knee brace, which doesn't help. If you don't have a big running game and you don't have a good offensive line, this dude's going to get killed."
    • He throws with good touch and timing, but scouts rate his overall arm talent as good, not great. "Trask is just an absolute statue back there. And I'm not sure he's got the arm talent to match it," an AFC coordinator said. "Normally if you've got a guy that's not very mobile, not very swift on his feet, he's gotta make up for it with a Howitzer." Trask does have fans; one scout ranked him fourth in this year's class, ahead of Mac Jones and Trey Lance.
    • "Trask was catching steam there during the season when he was putting up the numbers," another AFC exec said. "I just think there's a clear step below, really across the board -- athleticism, arm strength. Even going back and studying him again, it's like, eh, maybe it's a little better than I thought, but I think maybe there's just a ceiling on the guy."
    8. Davis Mills
    • "It's effortless when the ball came out. Really good mechanics. He really grew on me," an NFC quarterbacks coach said. "If you came back to me in two years and said that guy is a middle-of-the-pack starter in the NFL, I'm not going to be shocked. And if you tell me he's a backup or he didn't make it, I wouldn't be shocked. He's got something."
    • Said an AFC coordinator: "I think he can make all the throws, shows you arm talent to make every throw. Only thing that scares you there is obviously the injuries."
    • "His hype's a little bit out of control," an NFC scout said. "He's not mobile. He's not durable. His arm's OK. Kevin Hogan almost had more than he has in terms of just mobility and making plays. He came in beat up. He already doesn't run well. His escape ability under pressure, clutch playmaking -- all that stuff is really, really suspect."
    • "He is off the charts in terms of intelligence," an AFC quarterbacks coach said. "He's only played 11 games. Where does he fit? I don't know. But if the physical catches up, he's got a chance."
     
  20. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    9. Feleipe Franks
    • "He's just raw as s---," an NFC GM said. "But he's big. He's 6-6 and ran 4.5. He's got a big arm. He can throw the ball. He just needs a lot of mechanical work. But he'll get drafted, because he's got a lot of upside."
    • "Film at Arkansas was probably better than what I was expecting off the Florida stuff," a college scouting director said. But Franks still has a long ways to go. As another team source said: "Of the guys I interviewed at the Senior Bowl, [Franks is the one] you walked away saying, he's going to have to learn a lot."
    • His brother, Jordan, played three seasons in the NFL as a tight end, and one coordinator predicted Franks could be taken for a "Logan Thomas-type role" -- drafted as a QB, with the possibility of moving him to tight end in a year or two.
    • "I liked him a little more than our scouts, just because he has traits," another coordinator said. "If you're going to coach a guy and try to develop him, don't get (Texas' Sam) Ehlinger -- you know exactly what you're getting. Draft Franks, because the 5 percent chance [he] can be a No. 2, you might hit."
    10. Ian Book
    • "Maybe somebody takes a flier on a Book, but I don't think that kid's got what it takes to play in the league," an AFC coordinator said. "He's got perfectly clean pockets that he bails on all the time, and it's because he can't see."
    • "I enjoyed watching his tape," an NFC coordinator said. "He's got some swag to him. He's got some moxie to him. He knows how to play football."
    11. Sam Ehlinger
    • "He can throw the s--- out of the RPO slant, I'll tell you that. If I need him to complete an 18-yard dig route, I have no idea, because it's not on tape," an NFC quarterbacks coach said. "I just liked [Ehlinger] as a tough-ass, competitive dude."
    • "I'm not an Ehlinger guy," an NFC coordinator said. "Now, his interview was unbelievable. That kid should be a coach."
    • "This kid is super mature, really grounded," an AFC quarterbacks coach said. "He doesn't quite throw it well enough."
    12. Shane Buechele
    • "Just watching him play, he's a little bit like [Case Keenum]," an AFC coordinator said. "He's not the best passer, but he'll move around to make plays and improvise a little bit."
    • "He's a good little college football player," an AFC quarterbacks coach said. "Probably a real low ceiling, but he'll be in the mix."
    13. Jamie Newman
    • "He should [get drafted] based on the way he looks, and he's got a nice arm," a college scouting director said. "I just thought his Wake Forest tape was no good. There's very questionable makeup on the kid. ... He goes to Georgia, gets beat out. He leaves the team. ... Then the Senior Bowl wasn't very good."
    • "He's built like a linebacker. They were doing a lot of the zone-read, quarterback runs, he's running over guys (at Wake Forest)," an AFC scout said. "It's a shame, because I think people see the talent and they see the potential. There has just been some decision-making along the road that [makes you] question some maturity there from that position."
     

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