The models are starting to come to life. Earlier in the day some were showing landfall between Corpus Christi and Port Lavaca. Then there was a shift up the coast to a landfall between Matagorda and Galveston as a strong Category 2. Now some suggestions of landfall between Galveston and SW Louisiana as a strong Category 3 to weak Category 4. Maybe it goes into Louisiana or maybe it shifts back westward to Galveston.
Models are everywhere with how strong the high is over the SE. Can’t blame them entirely, we have had “cold” fronts make it off the coast in August lol.. that’s unusual. Pretty eventful weather year all around. Certainly need to watch this one closely as it looks like 99L will be heading in our general direction over the remainder of this week.
Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:44 AM CDT Wednesday August 25, 2021 Active Systems None Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 33 is located across the central Caribbean Sea along about 72W, south of Puerto Rico. The disturbance is moving west at 15 mph. Thunderstorms remain disorganized with this system. Environmental conditions are forecast to become much more favorable for development as the disturbance moves into the western Caribbean Sea on Friday and Saturday. Most of our model guidance indicates a track to the west to west-northwest across the Yucatan Peninsula into the southwest Gulf by late Saturday into Sunday. The system could potentially become a hurricane over the western Gulf of Mexico early next week and could track anywhere from northeast Mexico to the Texas coast. Overall confidence this far out in any extended track remains low. If there is still strong model support for development later today or by early Thursday, then we may initiate advisories at that time. The chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours is 40 percent and increases to 80 percent within the next 7 days. Disturbance 30 is located near 25.5N and 52.5W, or about 880 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. It is moving to the northwest at 15 to 20 mph. Thunderstorms remain poorly organized with the disturbance. Environmental conditions are expected to be more favorable as the disturbance turns to the northeast over the central Atlantic tomorrow into Friday, well to the east of Bermuda. The disturbance could become a tropical storm as it accelerates to the northeast by Friday. The chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours is 30 percent and increases to 70 percent within the next 7 days. Disturbance 34 is located along 33W, or about 625 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 15-20 mph. Thunderstorms are poorly organized with the disturbance. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for slow development over the next several days as it moves to the west-northwest to northwest towards the central Atlantic. The chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours is 30 percent and increases to 40 percent within the next 7 days.
Well, dang: Current Location: 13N, 76W Geographic Reference: 340 miles SSE of Kingston, Jamaica Movement: West-northwest at 10 mph Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 35 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 9 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 6 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 125 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1010 mb Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 60 percent Chance of Development Within 7 days: 95 percent Key Points 1. Disturbance 33 is expected to develop and move into the Gulf of Mexico. 2. The disturbance is forecast to become a hurricane over the northwest Gulf 3. While the forecast is for a landfall over Louisiana, landfall is possible anywhere from south Texas through the coast of Alabama. Our Forecast Disturbance 33 is gradually becoming better organized over the southern Caribbean Sea. However, there are no indications that there is a surface circulation. It is likely that a well-defined center will not form until Friday. A track mainly to the northwest is expected over the next couple of days. Our forecast track takes the system just south of the Cayman Islands and through the Yucatan Channel. Thereafter, the northwest track should continue for about a day over the Gulf of Mexico before a turn more to the north occurs. Our forecast track takes the system inland over Louisiana, a little west of Lafayette. However, given that there is not a well-defined center yet, there could be changes to this forecast over the next couple of days. There is the potential for a landfall anywhere from South Texas through Alabama. There is some wind shear over the northwest Caribbean. Thus, only gradual development is expected over the next 2 to 3 days. However, once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico, all indications are that conditions will become very favorable for development. Our forecast is for the system to become a hurricane with 85 mph winds by the time it reaches Louisiana. However, this may be conservative as many models are indicating a significantly stronger storm. It is quite possible that future forecasts will call for a stronger hurricane at landfall. After landfall, the system is expected to move rather slowly. This is likely to result in a significant inland flood threat. Expected Impacts on Land Jamaica and Cayman Islands: Areas of flooding could occur. Northern Gulf Coast: There is the potential for widespread power outages, some wind and tidal surge damage, as well as some inland flooding, at a minimum. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the deepwater lease areas as soon as late Saturday. Saturday is likely the final day of good flying conditions. Forecast Track Scope of Winds Wind Profile
Gossip that a hurricane hunter plane is supposed to fly mid day Thursday and take a look. The Louisiana people are saying that the Lake Charles area doesn't need to get hit again after what they went through last year.
Disturbance 33 Advisory 2 Valid: 09:00 PM CDT Wednesday August 25, 2021 Current Location: 14.5N, 77W Geographic Reference: 225 miles S of Kingston, Jamaica Movement: Northwest at 12 mph Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 35 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 9 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 6 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 125 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1010 mb Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 70 percent Chance of Development Within 7 days: 95 percent Key Points 1. We have adjusted the track a little eastward and are indicating faster forward motion over the Gulf. 2. The disturbance is forecast to become a hurricane over the northwest Gulf 3. While the forecast is for a landfall over Louisiana, landfall is possible anywhere from Texas to the coast of Alabama. Our Forecast Disturbance 33 (Invest 99L) continues to become better organized in the central Caribbean. It is showing signs of consolidating farther north and east than earlier projections. If this organizational trend continues, then 33 would have a tendency to track farther east. Given these trends, we have opted for a farther east track than indicated in the previous update. Additional eastward adjustments are likely if these recent trends continue. That being said, there continues to be plenty of uncertainty in the track since the disturbance continues to be in the early stages of development and lacks a well defined surface circulation. The system is expected to track near the Cayman Islands Thursday night into early Friday. By Friday night, we think it will be a tropical storm passing through the Yucatan Channel and into the Gulf of Mexico. Conditions in the Gulf are expected to be favorable for additional intensification. Therefore, 33 is expected to become a hurricane as it tracks into the northwestern or north-central Gulf over the weekend. Our forecast track takes the system inland over the central Louisiana Coast near Vermilion Bay Monday afternoon. However, it must be stressed that the lack of a well-defined center yields plenty of uncertainty. There is the potential for a landfall anywhere from Texas through Alabama. A landfall intensity of 85 mph continues to be predicted. However, this may be conservative as many models are indicating a significantly stronger storm. It is quite possible that future forecasts will call for a stronger hurricane at landfall. Though we are indicating a faster storm in this advisory, there remains a concern for significant inland flooding. On our current predicted track, there would be a high risk of flooding over portions of Louisiana, particularly near and to the east of the track. Expected Impacts on Land Jamaica and Cayman Islands: Areas of flooding could occur. Northern Gulf Coast: There is the potential for widespread power outages, some wind and tidal surge damage, as well as some inland flooding, at a minimum. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the southern most deepwater lease areas as soon as Saturday evening. Though Saturday could be the final day of good flying conditions for much of the northern Gulf, Friday may be the last day for the southern most lease blocks.
Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 05:19 AM CDT Thursday August 26, 2021 33 Disturbance 33 is located near 15.5N 77.5W, or about 180 miles to the south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica. It is moving to the northwest at 10 mph and has max sustained winds of 30 mph. It is becoming better organized and thunderstorms are starting to consolidate to the south of Jamaica. It is expected to become a tropical depression by late today or tonight as it progresses to the northwest. It is then forecast to continue to the northwest and strengthen into a tropical storm by Friday across the northwestern Caribbean. The system then moves into the southern Gulf of Mexico from Friday night into early Saturday morning. It then continues to the northwest while strengthening before becoming a hurricane on Sunday across the north-central Gulf. It then moves inland into the central Louisiana coast by early on Monday morning. Please refer to the latest advisory for more information. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 30 is located near 30.0N and 56.0W, or about 545 miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda. It is moving to the northwest at 10 to 15 mph. The thunderstorms are disorganized with the disturbance. However, the environmental conditions are expected to be more favorable as the disturbance turns in a north to northeasterly direction over the central Atlantic Ocean from today into Friday, well to the east of Bermuda. The disturbance could become a tropical system from Friday into Saturday before the environmental conditions become unfavorable on Sunday. The chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours is now 40 percent and that increases to 80 percent within the next 7 days. Disturbance 34 is located along 40.5W, or about 1140 miles to the west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 15 mph. Scattered thunderstorms associated with the disturbance are disorganized. It is expected to continue to the west-northwest today before turning to the north from Friday into the beginning of next week. The environmental conditions are marginal for development through this weekend and then become unfavorable by the beginning of next week. The chance of tropical development over the next 48 hours is 20 percent and then increases to 40 percent within the next 7 days. ************************** Disturbance 33 Advisory 3 Valid: 03:00 AM CDT Thursday August 26, 2021 Current Location: 15.5N, 77.5W Geographic Reference: 180 miles SSW of Kingston, Jamaica Movement: Northwest at 12 mph Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 11 out of a possible 50 points (4 size, 7 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 130 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1008 mb Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 85 percent Chance of Development Within 7 days: 95 percent Key Points 1. The track was adjusted a little to the east and the system is forecast to move faster across the Gulf. 2. The disturbance is forecast to become a hurricane over the north-central Gulf. 3. While the forecast is for a landfall over central Louisiana, landfall is possible anywhere from the upper Texas coast to the coast of Alabama. Our Forecast Disturbance 33 (Invest 99L) is slowly becoming better organized in the central Caribbean Sea. It is continuing to consolidate farther to the north and as a result the track has been shifted to the east some. More eastward adjustments in the track could be possible going forward. There continues to be uncertainty in the track since the disturbance is still in the early stages of development and lacks a well defined circulation center. The system is expected to progress to the northwest and track near the Cayman Islands from tonight into early on Friday. By Friday night, it is forecast to pass near the far western part of Cuba in the Yucatan Channel before pushing into the Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions in the Gulf are expected to be favorable for it to strengthen further. Therefore, Disturbance 33 is expected to become a hurricane as it tracks into the north-central Gulf on Sunday. The system then moves inland near the central part of Vermil ion Bay on Monday morning. However, it must continue to be stressed that the lack of a well-defined center still leads to some uncertainty. Therefore, there is the potential for a landfall anywhere from upper Texas coast to Alabama. A landfall intensity of 90 mph is now predicted. It is possible that this could be higher. The system then weakens as it pushes inland. There does remains a concern for significant inland flooding. On our current predicted track, there would be a high risk of flooding over portions of Louisiana, particularly near and to the east of the track. Expected Impacts on Land Jamaica and Cayman Islands: Areas of flooding could occur. Northern Gulf Coast: There is the potential for widespread power outages, some wind and tidal surge damage, as well as some inland flooding, at a minimum. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the southern most deepwater lease areas as soon as Saturday afternoon. Though Saturday could be the final day of good flying conditions for much of the northern Gulf, Friday may be the last day for the southern most lease blocks.
Disturbance 33 Advisory 4 Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Thursday August 26, 2021 Current Location: 16.6N, 78.9W Geographic Reference: 170 miles SW of Kingston, Jamaica Movement: Northwest at 14 mph Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 14 out of a possible 50 points (6 size, 8 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 125 miles Organizational Trend: Slowly Organizing Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1008 mb Chance of Development Within 48 Hours: 100 percent Key Points 1. No significant changes to the track in this forecast. 2. Landfall is now predicted to be early Monday morning. 3. Landfall and landfall intensity are uncertain. Landfall anywhere along the Louisiana coast is possible. Our Forecast Disturbance 33 (Invest 99L) continues to slowly organize southwest of Jamaica this morning. A reconnaissance plane should be investigating the disturbance starting early this afternoon to see if it has developed a well-defined circulation center. This is an important distinction, as that would provide a better initialization point for this evening's computer models. The better that the models are initialized, the better the output. There is still considerable model disagreement on the track and in the speed of movement of this potential hurricane. Our forecast takes the center inland into the middle Louisiana coast earlier on Monday morning, about 4 hours earlier than in our previous advisory. In addition, if the center forms more to the north and east of current estimates, then that would result in a track farther east, possibly south of Baton Rouge or New Orleans. The overall model trend is for a faster forward speed, an earlier landfall, and possibly a landfall a little farther to the east. Chances of a hurricane impact on the lower to middle Texas coast appear to be decreasing. Given the uncertainty, this potential hurricane could make landfall anywhere from the Texas/Louisiana border to the mouth of the Mississippi. Intensity is another uncertainty. While most models indicate that this could become a powerful hurricane prior to landfall, we do not yet know how the developing hurricane along the west coast of Mexico in the East Pacific will affect this storm. If the East Pacific storm is stronger, then outflow from the northwest across the Gulf could introduce wind shear, which would limit the ability of the Gulf storm to strengthen somewhat. For now, we think that the East Pacific storm may be weaker. This would mean that the environment across the central and northern Gulf would be quite favorable for strengthening over the weekend. We are forecasting the hurricane to be a Category 2 with 100 mph wind at landfall in this advisory, but it could certainly get stronger than that if the wind shear across the Gulf is lower. Expected Impacts on Land Jamaica and Cayman Islands: Flooding-related travel issues today. Northern Gulf Coast: There is the potential for widespread power outages, some wind and tidal surge damage, as well as some inland flooding, at a minimum. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the southern deepwater lease areas as soon as Saturday afternoon. This makes Friday the last full day of good flying weather across the northwest Gulf
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory 5 Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Thursday August 26, 2021 Current Location: 17.8N, 80.0W Geographic Reference: 115 Miles West of Jamaica Movement: Northwest at 14 mph Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 20 out of a possible 50 points (9 size, 11 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 160 miles Organizational Trend: Slowly Organizing Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1006 mb Key Points 1. We have nudged the track a little to the east across the Gulf. 2. Landfall is now predicted to be Sunday evening south of Morgan City. 3. May be a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane at landfall. Our Forecast A reconnaissance plane will be just arriving near Tropical Depression Nine's center as this advisory is issued. The data from the plane will help to pinpoint where the surface circulation is developing. That data will go into the overnight models and provide greater insight as to where this storm will track across the Gulf and where it may make its final landfall. We think that the easterly trend in the models will continue, so we have nudged the track a little to the east in this advisory. Landfall is now predicted for around 7 PM CDT Sunday evening south of Morgan City, LA. The earlier landfall is partly because the hurricane will not have to track all the way across Vermilion Bay to make landfall, but also because the models are trending a little faster with its forward speed across the Gulf. We cannot rule out any further eastward track adjustments. The current forecast track and eastward trend means that chances of any significant impacts along the Texas coast are diminishing. If the current trend continues, then we may be shifting the lower to middle Texas coast to Response Plan Activator - Negative on Friday. We still cannot rule out any impacts to the upper Texas coast. It is looking less likely that the East Pacific storm Nora will impart any wind shear over future Ida as it tracks across the Gulf this weekend. We are now indicating that max sustained winds at landfall will be 115 mph, making it a Category 3 hurricane. It is certainly possible that it could be stronger. Expected Impacts on Land Cayman Islands: Flooding-related travel issues tonight and Friday. Some power outages likely due to tropical storm force wind gusts. Northern Gulf Coast: There is the potential for widespread power outages, some wind and tidal surge damage, as well as some inland flooding, at a minimum, depending on where the center crosses the coast. Expected Impacts Offshore Northwest Gulf of Mexico: Squalls could move into the southern deepwater lease areas as early as Saturday afternoon. This makes Friday the last full day of good flying weather across the northwest Gulf from Garden Banks eastward.
Tropical Storm Ida Intermediate Advisory 5a Issued: 05:00 PM CDT Thursday August 26, 2021 Current Location: 18.0N, 79.8W Geographic Reference: 125 miles SE of Grand Cayman Island Movement: Northwest at 15 mph Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph Organizational Trend: Slowly Organizing Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1006 mb Recent data from a reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Tropical Depression Nine is now Tropical Storm Ida. No change has been made to the forecast at this time. Our next advisory will be issued by 9 PM CDT
