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[2021] Hurricane season discussion thread

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by KingCheetah, Apr 18, 2021.

  1. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    Disturbance 2 Advisory 1
    Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Friday May 21, 2021

    upload_2021-5-21_12-8-55.png
    Current Location: 26.3N, 94.0W
    Geographic Reference: 230 Miles SE of Matagorda Bay, TX
    Movement: Northwest at 19 mph
    Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph
    Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity)
    Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity)
    Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
    Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
    Organizational Trend: Very Slowly Becoming Better-Organized
    Forecast Confidence: Average
    Estimated Central Pressure: 1012 mb
    Chance of Development: 50 percent
    Key Points
    1. Disturbance 2 could become a tropical depression prior to moving ashore early tomorrow.
    2. Whether or not the disturbance is classified as a depression, its impacts offshore and inland into Texas will be the same.
    3. It appears unlikely that the disturbance will produce any sustained tropical storm winds.
    Our Forecast
    Satellite imagery indicates that Disturbance 2 has developed a well-defined surface circulation about 230 miles southeast of Matagorda Bay. Winds around this low center are 25 mph to 35 mph . Strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. is producing moderate to strong east-southeast winds along the northern Gulf Coast today. This high pressure center will steer the disturbance quickly northwestward and inland into the middle Texas coast by early Saturday morning.
    Though the disturbance does have a well-defined surface circulation, dry air has wrapped around the east side of the low center. This dry air should prevent any rapid strengthening prior to the center moving ashore early tomorrow morning. Our forecast indicates that the disturbance could be classified as a tropical depression this evening, but that will not make any difference as far as its impacts offshore and into Texas. We do not think that the disturbance will develop any tropical storm-force winds prior to landfall. However, if it does, then any tropical storm-force wind will be confined to squalls offshore.
    Expected Impacts Offshore
    Texas Coast: Squalls through Saturday morning with wind gusts to 60 mph possible. Rough seas in and near heavier squalls.
    Expected Impacts Inland
    Middle Texas Coast: Enhanced rainfall tonight and Saturday as the low passes. Thunderstorm activity may extend as far up the coast as the Houston/Galveston area on Saturday morning. Conditions improving Saturday afternoon/evening.
     
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  2. Roc Paint

    Roc Paint Contributing Member

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    I actually thought this would be much worse last week @KingCheetah
     
  3. DonkeyMagic

    DonkeyMagic Contributing Member
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    how apropos would it be if Peter sticks it to us and dicks us over?
     
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  4. marks0223

    marks0223 2017 and 2022 World Series Champions
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  5. Roc Paint

    Roc Paint Contributing Member

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    Well it makes sense since Father’s Day is next weekend around the time of impact

    When it comes to crazy weather events in Houston just ask yourself what DAY is it
     
  6. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    Atlantic Daily Briefing
    Issued: 04:33 AM CDT Monday June 14, 2021

    [​IMG]


    Active Systems

    None

    Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
    Disturbance 4 is a broad trough over the southwest Gulf of Mexico this morning. Thunderstorms remain disorganized but are forecast to gradually increase over the next few days as conditions gradually become more favorable. Computer models remain in fairly good agreement that low pressure will slowly organize over the southwest Gulf by Wednesday and Thursday. Once developed, the low is forecast to gradually accelerate to the north. By Wednesday or Thursday, the low could be developed enough to be upgraded to a tropical depression by the National Hurricane Center.

    Moderate to strong wind shear should prevail across the Gulf of Mexico this week. While such wind shear would make it difficult for the system to become a hurricane, it would not prevent any tropical depression from becoming a tropical storm.

    The one point of disagreement in the computer models continues to be where this low would move ashore. Somewhere between the upper Texas coast and Mississippi around next Saturday seems most likely, with the main focus on the Louisiana coast. Once a definable center forms, which will probably not be until Tuesday or Wednesday, we will have a much better idea where this potential system will track later this week.

    The primary impact of this low center, whether it is classified as a depression or tropical storm or not, will be increasing heavy squalls and strong gusty wind across the northwest Gulf lease areas next Wednesday through Friday. Heavy rain can be expected east of where the center moves inland next Saturday and Sunday.

    Chance of development with 48 hours: 30 percent Chance of development within 48 hours: 80 percent

    Disturbance 5 has been identified along a frontal system near 34.0N and 75.5W, or about 85 miles south of Cape Hatteras. The disturbance is moving to the northeast at about 13 knots (15 mph). Thunderstorms with this disturbance have increased this morning and there is a brief opportunity for tropical development today before this system accelerates to the northeast later this evening into Tuesday.

    Chance of development with 48 hours: 30 percent Chance of development within 48 hours: 30 percent

    Disturbance 6 has been identified over the Tropical Atlantic along about 61W near Trinidad. The disturbance is moving west at 15 to 20 knots (17 to 23 mph). No development is expected due to unfavorable environmental conditions and the close proximity to land over the next several days. The disturbance will however bring increasing thunderstorms from Trinidad to the northern Colombia over the next 24 to 48 hours.

    Chance of development with 48 hours: 0 percent Chance of development within 48 hours: 0 percent

    Disturbance 7 has been identified over the far eastern Atlantic along about 19W, or about 530 miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. The disturbance is moving west at 10 to 15 knots (12 to 17 mph) and this motion is forecast to continue over the next several days. Even though thunderstorms with this system are quite expansive, environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for development. More than likely this system will bring increasing storminess to the eastern Caribbean in about a week with only a slight chance for tropical development.

    Chance of development with 48 hours: 20 percent Chance of development within 48 hours: 20 percent
     
  7. conquistador#11

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    I need dark clouds but no rain. Make it happen.
     
  8. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    Atlantic Daily Briefing
    Issued: 05:06 AM CDT Tuesday June 15, 2021

    [​IMG]


    Bill
    Tropical Storm Bill is located at 38.4N / 66.8W as of 4 AM EDT this morning. This position is about 285 miles southeast of Cape Cod, MA. Bill is moving to the northeast at 30 mph. Bill will likely transition into an extratropical cyclone as it accelerates to the northeast. Please see our latest advisory for further details.

    Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
    Disturbance 4 is a weak low pressure area located in the southwest Bay of Campeche near 18.9N / 94.3W. The disturbance will linger over the Bay of Campeche over the next 24 to 36 hours. High pressure to its north will weaken late Wednesday into Thursday and allow it to move northward. The disturbance will consolidate into a tropical depression between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning as it enters the northwest Gulf. It could become a tropical storm on Friday or early Saturday.

    Strong southwesterly winds aloft should prevent any significant strengthening prior to landfall somewhere on the Louisiana coast Saturday. Winds at landfall may be in the 40-45 mph range, mostly in squalls over the water well to the east of the center. Do not focus on where the center crosses the coast, as the strongest wind and heaviest rain may move ashore 100 miles east of the center. Once inland, it should quickly weaken over south Louisiana Saturday afternoon and evening. Development chances are 50 percent over the next 48 hours and 90 percent beyond 48 hours.

    Disturbance 7 is a strong tropical wave with a weak low center located about 445 miles south-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands near 8.6N / 26.0W. The disturbance is moving to the west at 20 mph. There is a small window for development over the next 2 to 3 days, prior to the system reaching an area of strong wind shear to the east of the Caribbean Sea. Development chances are near 20 percent over the next 48 hours and beyond 48 hours.

    Disturbance 6 is a tropical wave located in the central Caribbean Sea along 71W. It is moving rapidly to the west at 25 mph. Strong wind shear prevails in its path. No significant impacts are expected across the Caribbean, northern Venezuela, and northern Colombia. Development chances are near zero percent.
     
  9. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    Disturbance 4 Advisory 1
    Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Tuesday June 15, 2021

    [​IMG]

    Current Location:
    19.6N, 94.2W
    Geographic Reference: Over the Southern Bay of Campeche
    Movement: Northeast at 3 mph
    Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
    Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
    Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
    Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
    Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 140 miles
    Organizational Trend: Steady
    Forecast Confidence: Average
    Estimated Central Pressure: 1010 mb

    Chance of Development: 90 percent

    Key Points
    1. Disturbance 4 will at most be a weak tropical storm due to strong wind shear.
    2. The main threat inland will be from heavy rain well east of the track Friday/Saturday.
    3. Squalls will reach the deepwater areas off central and southeast Louisiana Thursday night.
    4. Impact both offshore and inland will be the same whether or not the disturbance becomes a tropical storm.

    Our Forecast
    Disturbance 4 remains disorganized in the southern Bay of Campeche this morning. High pressure to its north should block much northward movement until Wednesday afternoon or Thursday morning. As the disturbance tracks northward on Thursday, it will be encountering strong winds from the southwest aloft. This southwesterly wind shear will drive most squalls well east of the developing low-level circulation center. The shear should also prevent the system from becoming a strong tropical storm or a hurricane. In fact, the shear could prevent it from reaching tropical storm strength.

    We think that the disturbance could become a weak tropical storm by Friday as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast. All significant impacts, wind and squalls, should be located well to the east of the center, so do not focus on where the center tracks or makes landfall. Once the center moves ashore, likely into southern Louisiana, it should quickly weaken to a remnant low pressure area. Note that whether or not the disturbance is ever classified as a tropical depression or a tropical storm, its impacts across the Gulf and along the northern Gulf Coast will be the same.

    Expected Impacts Offshore
    Louisiana Waters: Occasional squalls with wind gusts to 55 mph possible late Thursday through Saturday morning.

    Expected Impacts Inland
    South-Central and Southeast Louisiana to Southern Mississippi: Occasional heavy rain Friday afternoon/evening through Saturday. Rainfall amounts of 3-6 inches likely, whether or not the disturbance develops into a depression or a tropical storm.
     
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  10. arkoe

    arkoe (ง'̀-'́)ง

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    Time to stock up on poptarts.
     
  11. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    Disturbance 4 Advisory 2
    Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Tuesday June 15, 2021

    [​IMG]

    Current Location:
    19.4N, 95.4W
    Geographic Reference: Over the Southern Bay of Campeche
    Movement: Northeast at 3 mph
    Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
    Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
    Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
    Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
    Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 195 miles
    Organizational Trend: Steady
    Forecast Confidence: Average
    Estimated Central Pressure: 1010 mb

    Chance of Development: 90 percent

    Key Points
    1. Track has been shifted west in this advisory.
    2. Disturbance 4 will at most be a weak tropical storm due to strong wind shear.
    3. The main threat inland will be from heavy rain well east of the track Friday night through Sunday.
    4. Squalls will reach the deepwater areas off central and southeast Louisiana Thursday night.
    5. Impact both offshore and inland will be the same whether or not the disturbance becomes a tropical storm.

    Our Forecast
    We started noticing a westward track shift in some of the overnight models. Morning model runs indicate more of a jog westward on Friday before the northward turn. Because of this, we have adjusted the track across the northwest Gulf westward in this advisory. What has not changed is that all models still indicate a weak, sheared system that may just barely reach tropical storm strength. All sustained tropical storm-force winds are expected to be east of the track in squalls offshore.

    Once the center moves ashore, it should quickly weaken to a remnant low pressure area. Note that whether or not the disturbance is ever classified as a tropical depression or a tropical storm, its impacts across the Gulf and along the northern Gulf Coast will be the same. The primary threat inland east of the track will be from heavy rainfall rather than high winds.

    Expected Impacts Offshore
    Louisiana Waters: Occasional squalls with wind gusts to 55 mph possible late Thursday through Saturday afternoon.

    Expected Impacts Inland
    South-Central and Southeast Louisiana to Southern Mississippi: Occasional heavy rain Friday night through Sunday.
    Port Arthur to Lake Charles: Possible heavy rain Friday night through Saturday night.
    Galveston to Port Arthur: Most squalls will pass to your east between Friday night and Saturday night.
     
    Amiga likes this.
  12. Buck Turgidson

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    Go West, young man, Go West.
     
  13. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    Atlantic Daily Briefing
    Issued: 05:10 AM CDT Wednesday June 16, 2021


    [​IMG]

    Disturbance 4 remains a broad and weak area of low pressure over the Bay of Campeche near 20.2N / 93.5W. The disturbance will begin to move slowly northward today into Thursday. It is forecast to develop into a tropical depression as it moves into the northwest Gulf Friday, then strengthen into a tropical storm late Friday. Strong southwesterly winds aloft should prevent any significant strengthening prior to landfall near the Texas and Louisiana border Saturday afternoon. Once inland, it should quickly weaken over Louisiana Saturday afternoon and evening. Development chances are 60 percent over the next 48 hours and 90 percent beyond 48 hours.

    Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
    Disturbance 7 is a strong tropical wave with a weak low center located about 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands near 9.0N / 33.0W. The disturbance is moving to the west at 21 mph. Thunderstorms have increased with the disturbance and there remains a low chance it could develop over the next day or two before it encounters increasing wind shear. Development chances are near 20 percent over the next 48 hours, then 20 percent over the next 7 days.

    Disturbance 8 has been identified 550 miles east of the Windward Islands along 53W. It is moving to the west-northwest at 20 mph. It will encounter increasing southwesterly wind shear as it approaches the Caribbean today and moves across the eastern Caribbean tomorrow into Friday. This will keep the chance of development very low. However, it will increase showers and thunderstorms across the Lesser Antilles westward to Puerto Rico tonight into early Friday. Development chances are less than 10 percent over the next 48 hours, then remain less than 10 percent over the next 7 days.

    Tropical Storm Bill has become fully extratropical and weakened to the southwest of Newfoundland. Bill has been removed from our analysis.
     
  14. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    B-Bob and Roc Paint like this.
  15. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]


    Current Location:
    22.5N, 92.0W
    Geographic Reference: 510 miles south of Lafayette, Louisiana
    Movement: North at 3 mph
    Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 35 mph
    Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
    Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 1 intensity)
    Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
    Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 175 miles
    Organizational Trend: Steady
    Forecast Confidence: Average
    Estimated Central Pressure: 1009 mb

    Chance of Development: 90 percent

    Key Points
    1. There has been another slight eastward shift to the forecast track.
    2. Disturbance 4 is forecast to become a minimal tropical storm.
    3. All of the strong winds and heavy rains will be east of the center.

    Our Forecast
    Visible satellite imagery indicates that there is not a well-defined center yet with Disturbance 4. We do not expect that one will form until tomorrow afternoon, at which time we expect the disturbance to become a tropical depression. Strong wind shear is expected to persist over the system as it moves northward toward the Gulf Coast. This will likely not allow the system to become stronger than a minimal tropical storm. In addition, it will keep the heaviest rains and any tropical storm force winds east of the center.

    The forecast track has been adjusted slightly to the east of the previous forecast. A track mainly to the north is expected. Landfall is expected to occur around the western parts of Vermilion Bay Saturday morning. After landfall, a turn to the northeast is expected, along with an acceleration. The forecast track will result in the heavy rains being confined to areas from central Louisiana eastward. No significant rainfall is expected to the west of Lake Charles.

    Some of the guidance indicates that Disturbance 4 may remain intact and redevelop off the East Coast. This does not seem likely. Instead, we expect that it will lose tropical characteristics over the southern United States as it interacts with an approaching cold front.

    Expected Impacts Offshore
    Louisiana Waters: Occasional squalls with wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible for the deepwater lease areas tomorrow morning or early afternoon.

    Expected Impacts Inland
    South-Central and Southeast Louisiana to Southern Mississippi: Widespread street flooding is likely to cause travel delays. Scattered power outages will be possible for coastal areas of Louisiana.
    Southwest Louisiana: With the shift in the forecast track, no major impacts are expected.
     
  16. davidio840

    davidio840 Contributing Member

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    I just love how they have the storm heading right into a front/big high pressure on the map lol. That’s usually not how it works. Timing will be interesting but I’m thinking TX/LA border as well with Houston on the dry and hot side. Could be some showers along the coast but as of now, prepare for 100s and high electricity (A/C) and water bills if you water often.
     
  17. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    He headed east, @Buck Turgidson

    Disturbance 4 Advisory 8
    Valid: 03:00 AM CDT Thursday June 17, 2021

    [​IMG]


    Current Location: 23.0N, 91.9W
    Geographic Reference: 495 miles south of Lafayette, Louisiana
    Movement: North at 6 mph
    Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph
    Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity)
    Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity)
    Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles
    Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 110 miles
    Organizational Trend: Steady
    Forecast Confidence: Average
    Estimated Central Pressure: 1009 mb

    Chance of Development: 90 percent

    Key Points
    1. The track was shifted slightly to the east once the system moves into the northern Gulf.
    2. Disturbance 4 is forecast to become a minimal tropical storm.
    3. All of the strong winds and heavy rains will be to the east of the center.

    Our Forecast
    Disturbance 4 continues to be disorganized. There is not a cohesive center yet which does continue to bring some uncertainty into the track forecast. Upper level wind shear is still forecast to impact the Gulf and keep all of the squalls and thunderstorm activity to the east of the center of circulation. The upper level wind shear is also expected to inhibit any big strengthening and this system is still forecast to become a minimal tropical storm.

    A general northward track is expected from today through Saturday. The system is expected to strengthen into a tropical depression by late today or tonight and then continue to strengthen before becoming a minimal tropical storm by Friday. Landfall is predicted along the central Louisiana coast near Vermillion Bay by Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions will be likely along portions of the Louisiana coast to the east of where the center makes landfall. Tropical storm force winds are unlikely to push far inland due to the system not being very strong weakening over land. The primary concern will continue to be heavy rainfall to the east of the center of circulation. The storm is expected to also bring moderate to heavy rainfall well inland from the coast as it pushes northward across Louisiana on Saturday and then turns northeastward across Mississippi and into Alabama from Saturday night into Sunday.

    Some of our data continues to indicate that the system will remain intact enough to redevelop off the East Coast of the United States by late Monday or Tuesday of next week. At this time, we continue to think that tropical development off the East Coast from this system is unlikely. However, we will be monitoring the situation very closely.

    Expected Impacts Offshore
    Louisiana Waters: Occasional squalls with wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible for the deepwater lease areas by this afternoon. Squalls and low-end tropical storm force winds are expected from Friday into early Saturday.

    Expected Impacts Inland
    South-Central and Southeast Louisiana to Southern Mississippi: Widespread street flooding is likely to cause travel delays. Scattered power outages will be possible for coastal areas of Louisiana, especially near where the system makes landfall.
    Southwest Louisiana: No major impacts are expected based off the latest predicted track.

    *************************************************

    Atlantic Daily Briefing
    Issued: 04:49 AM CDT Thursday June 17, 2021


    [​IMG]

    Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
    Disturbance 7 is a tropical wave noted along 38W, or about 950 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. The disturbance is moving to the west-northwest at 20 mph. Widely scattered and disorganized storms are associated with this disturbance. The environmental conditions are only marginally favorable for development at best across the area. Development chances have been decreased to 10 percent over the next 48 hours and then 10 percent over the next 7 days.

    Disturbance 8 is a tropical wave located along 61W or near the Lesser Antilles. It is moving to the west at 20-25 mph. It is expected to move into the eastern Caribbean today and then toward and across the central Caribbean from Friday through this upcoming weekend. The environmental conditions across the Caribbean are not favorable for development. Development chances have been reduced to 0 percent.
     
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  18. Fulgore

    Fulgore Member

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    Damn Louisiana must be cursed
     
  19. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    Self-inflicting. Have you been through there lately?
     
  20. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    Shouldn't they retire the name Claudette by now -- seems like it's always a crazy tropical storm.
     

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