Storms developing in the Caribbean and Gulf doesn't seem to bode well for the remaining Season. There's almost no doubt the Atlantic will strike too
Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:38 AM CDT Monday September 13, 2021 Nicholas Tropical Storm Nicholas is located about 70 miles to the east-southeast of Brownsville, TX and moving to the north-northwest at 13 mph. Maximum winds are near 60 mph. Nicholas will turn to the north later today and make landfall on the middle Texas coast by this evening as a strong tropical storm. Nicholas will weaken as the storm pushes across northeastward across southeastern Texas on Tuesday into early Wednesday. The primary impact from Nicholas will be the flooding rainfall across the Texas coastal bend to southwestern Louisiana through Wednesday. Please see the latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 40 is located near 22.0N, 69.0W. The disturbance remains disorganized and is predicted to track north of the Bahamas through Wednesday before turning to the north to northeast offshore the Southeast U.S. coast later in the week. Environmental conditions may become more favorable for development by Thursday as the disturbance turns northeastward and moves back out into the Atlantic. The disturbance could become a tropical depression or tropical storm as it passes to the east of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S. later in the week into the weekend. Development chances are near 0 percent over the next 48 hours, increasing to 50 percent within the next 7 days. Disturbance 45 has been identified near the west coast of Africa near 10.0N, 15.0W. It is moving westward at 15 mph. The disturbance could begin to develop by Wednesday or Thursday as it moves to the west to west-northwest over the tropical North Atlantic. The possible storm may either pass just northeast of the Caribbean or over the northeastern Caribbean in over a week from now. There is a 20 percent chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours, then an 80 percent chance of tropical development within the next 7 days. Disturbance 44 has become more poorly defined as a trough near 18.5N, 27.5W. The disturbance is becoming more elongated and will likely dissipate to the northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands within the next 24 hours. The disturbance is not expected to develop. ********************* Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory 8a Issued: 06:00 AM CDT Monday September 13, 2021 Current Location: 25.6N, 96.7W Geographic Reference: 45 miles SE of Brownsville, TX Movement: North-Northeast at 13 mph Max Winds: 60 mph gusting to 75 mph Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1001 mb Our Forecast There has been little change to the intensity of Nicholas over the past few hours. The center of Nicholas is pushing closer to the Texas and Mexico border this morning. Nicholas is expected to make a turn to the north later this morning. If this turn does not occur, it is possible Nicholas could make landfall sooner along the lower Texas coast and the storm may not strengthen much more. Regardless, as Nicholas pushes closer to the lower and middle Texas coast over the next several hours, the tropical storm will continue to spread moderate to heavy rainbands across the lower and middle Texas coast, resulting in locally heavy rainfall and isolated power outages from wind gusts reaching tropical storm force in the rain bands. More of these heavy rain bands will spread northward across the upper Texas coast through later this morning. A reconnaissance aircraft will investigate Nicholas over the next couple of hours which will provide more information as Nicholas moves closer to the Texas coastal areas.
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory 9 Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Monday September 13, 2021 Current Location: 26.0N, 96.8W Geographic Reference: 150 miles south of Corpus Christi, TX Movement: North at 10 mph Max Winds: 60 mph gusting to 75 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1001 mb Key Points 1. The greatest threat of flooding rainfall is over southeast Texas into Louisiana. 2. Landfall is expected late this afternoon or tonight a little northeast of Corpus Christi. 3. The chance of Nicholas becoming a hurricane is decreasing. Our Forecast Recent radar imagery indicates that Nicholas briefly slowed, though it appears to be moving northward again. Our forecast continues to indicate that landfall will occur late this afternoon or this evening a little east of Corpus Christi. However, we cannot rule out a center reformation to the northeast of the current center. If this were to occur, landfall could occur in the vicinity of Port Lavaca. Regardless, the heavy rains extend well east of the center. This means that areas along the middle and upper Texas coast, as well as parts of Louisiana, will receive very heavy rains regardless as to the specific landfall location. The heaviest rains are expected to occur for the middle Texas coast through the day today into tonight. For the upper Texas coast, the heaviest rains are expected tonight into tomorrow morning. The heaviest rains are expected to occur close to the coast. General totals of 8 to 14 inches are forecast, though isolated areas could receive up to 20 inches. Inland areas will receive less rain. The areas with the greatest rainfall will occur where the rainbands set up and train over each other. It is too soon to forecast where this will occur. The wind shear has not decreased as much as was expected. Thus, rapid intensification is not expected. Only a slight increase in the wind speed is now forecast before landfall. These winds will occur in a small area northeast of the eye. The chance of Nicholas becoming a hurricane is decreasing, but it is not zero. Nicholas should weaken quickly after it makes landfall, though the flooding rains will persist. Isolated tornadoes are also expected with Nicholas. These will mainly occur east of the center. Expected Impacts Offshore Lower to Middle Texas Coast: Squalls will occur through early tomorrow morning. Some of these squalls will produce wind gusts as high as 70 mph. Winds gusts to hurricane force may occur just east of the center. Upper Texas Coast: Squalls will occur through tomorrow afternoon Some of these squalls will produce wind gusts as high as 60 mph. Expected Impacts Inland Northeast Mexico and Lower Texas Coast: Localized street flooding could occur. Some power outages possible along the lower Texas coast later this morning into this afternoon. Middle and Upper Texas Coast: Widespread street flooding is likely to result in major travel delays. Some flood damage cannot be ruled out. Near where landfall occurs, widespread power outages are possible along with minor wind damage. Minor coastal flooding is also possible. Southwest Louisiana: The threat for widespread street flooding is increasing which will likely to result in major travel delays. No significant wind impacts are expected.
Damn, what the hell. I thought Cypress was in the clear but now it looks like it's heading right over us.
This thing is like a flat tire bumbling up the coast. Too close for comfort now. Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory 9a Issued: 12:00 PM CDT Monday September 13, 2021 Current Location: 26.8N, 96.5W Geographic Reference: 120 miles south of Port Lavaca, TX Movement: North at 13 mph Max Winds: 60 mph gusting to 75 mph Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1003 mb Nicholas appears to have underwent another center relocation to the north-northeast. This places the center a bit closer to the coast. The center reformation also means that landfall may occur a little farther to the east than we were previously expecting. Landfall may occur closer to the Port Lavaca area. In addition, tropical storm force winds extend at least 115 miles from the center. This means that winds of tropical storm force could affect areas farther north than we were forecasting at 9 am, possibly as far north as Galveston. However, winds should remain below tropical storm force in the Houston area. Strong winds and heavy rain will extend far outside of the likely landfall area. The greatest threat remains flooding rainfall. The heaviest rains will likely fall between Port Lavaca and just southwest of the Beaumont area. This area could receive 8 to 14 inches of rain with isolated 20 inch totals. The heaviest rains will begin to spread over the middle Texas Coast within the next few hours and will begin spreading over the upper Texas coast by the late afternoon early evening hours. The rains could persist into early tomorrow morning for the upper Texas coast. Southwest Louisiana will likely begin experiencing heavy rains tomorrow morning
That's good, but I'm more concerned about losing power than flooding. Not that it's impossible for my neighborhood to flood, but we have retention ponds all over and it has never really come close to flooding. So I'm just hoping the wind isn't enough to knock out power.
