Disturbance 43, Advisory #2 Site Forecast for University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, Galveston, TX Valid: 03:00 PM CDT 11 Sep, 2021 Discussion: Our forecast takes Disturbance 43 inland east of Brownsville, TX around 3 PM on Monday as a 45 mph tropical storm then inland near Matagorda Bay Tuesday morning as a 60 mph tropical storm. Once inland, the system will slowly weaken to a remnant low by Tuesday evening. However, its slow movement inland across southeast Texas will likely result in very heavy rainfall across the middle Texas coast, southeast Texas, and southwest Louisiana from Monday evening through Tuesday. Squalls moving into the upper Texas coast Monday afternoon/evening and continuing through Tuesday evening. These squalls may produce wind gusts to tropical storm strength, resulting in scattered power outages. Heavy rainfall may cause flooding-related travel issues. General Rainfall Amounts: Rainfall of 5-8 inches likely from Monday evening through Tuesday evening. Storm Surge: Tides may increase to 2-4 feet above normal Tuesday morning due to moderate onshore winds.
Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:02 AM CDT Sunday September 12, 2021. 43 Disturbance 43 is located over the southern Gulf of Mexico near 20N and 95W, or about 230 miles southeast of Tampico. Thunderstorms are increasing with the disturbance and there is an increasing chance for tropical development over the next 24 to 48 hours as environmental conditions become more favorable. Our latest forecast is for the disturbance to strengthen to a tropical storm by early Monday off the northeast Mexican coast. From there the center is forecast to pass just east of Brownsville Monday afternoon and strike the mid Texas coast as a strong tropical storm Tuesday morning. Since the center has not yet formed, confidence in the track is only average. Expect increasing thunderstorms and gusty winds spreading from south to north over the western Gulf later today through early next week. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 40 has been repositioned northwestward near 19.0N and 62.0W, or about 250 miles east-northeast of Puerto Rico. The disturbance remains disorganized and is predicted to track north of the eastern Caribbean Islands today through early next week, with little or no impacts. By next Wednesday, the disturbance will be located off the southeast U.S. Coast, east of the northern Bahamas. It is there that environmental conditions may become more favorable. We continue to see some computer model data showing development and possibly becoming a tropical storm threat to the southeast or Mid-Atlantic Coast next Thursday or Friday. Development chances are near 0 percent over the next 48 hours, increasing to 40 percent next Wednesday or Thursday off the southeast U.S. Coast. Disturbance 44 is located along about 26W, or just north of the Cabo Verde Islands. The disturbance is moving west at 15 to 20 mph. Thunderstorms have become better organized with the disturbance during the past 24 hours. The highest chance of development will be today into early next week as it passes to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Beyond then, model guidance indicates weakening and eventual dissipation over the central Atlantic by next Wednesday and Thursday. Development chances remain at 50 percent over the next 48 hours and decrease to 20 percent beyond 48 hours.
Latest GFS run dumps a lot of rain over the Houston area. Going to be a interesting next few days. Excessive rainfall totals will depend on dry air intrusion, or lack thereof.
I bet you if the government gave everyone a generator who received a Covid shot we’d be in good shape
Geeze.. Euro showing 60 inches of rain in Fayette County. Somewhere around 15-20 inches in west/southwest counties. 5-12 inches around Houston metro with the lower further East you go. GFS has most of the heavier rain East into the golden triangle area
Tropical Storm Nicholas Advisory 6 Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Sunday September 12, 2021 Current Location: 22.6N, 95.6W Geographic Reference: 250 miles SSE of Mouth of Rio Grande River Movement: North-northwest at 14 mph Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 70 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 75 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing slowly Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1009 mb Key Points 1.The greatest threat remains flooding rainfall over eastern Texas. 2. Nicholas is expected to be slightly stronger than we previously were forecasting. 3. Heavy squalls with gusty winds are possible through Tuesday offshore the Texas coast. Our Forecast Aircraft data indicate that the center of Nicholas is a little to the northwest of our previous estimate. The overall forecast reasoning has not changed. We still expect Nicholas to move to the north-northwest through tonight and then turn to the north. Landfall is still expected to occur shortly after midnight Tuesday morning between Corpus Christi and Matagorda. However, any deviation to the west of our forecast track could bring the system inland earlier in either northeast Mexico or South Texas. After landfall, a slow motion to the north-northeast is expected, which will bring the heaviest rain and the strongest wind to the upper Texas Coast on Tuesday. Heavy rains are expected to spread into western Louisiana by late Tuesday into Wednesday. The greatest threat from Nicholas remains heavy rainfall. The heaviest rains are expected over the upper Texas Coast. While general accumulations are likely to be in the 5 to 10 inch range, isolated areas could receive up to 15 inches of rain from Nicholas. To better highlight the rainfall potential, we are including a forecast rainfall graphic with this advisory. Nicholas is slowly becoming better organized this afternoon as thunderstorms continue to increase in associated with the system, and the circulation gradually is becoming better defined. Conditions continue to become more favorable for tropical development. We expect Nicholas to become a strong tropical storm by the time it reaches the Texas Coast. Winds are now forecast to be 65 mph at landfall. It is not impossible that Nicholas could become a minimal hurricane prior to landfall. If Nicholas were to track east of our forecast track, it would have longer over water. However, wind shear would likely increase. Thus, Nicholas is not expected to be stronger if it were to move toward the upper Texas coast or SW Louisiana. After landfall, Nicholas should weaken quickly. Expected Impacts Offshore Bay of Campeche: Heavy squalls for the remainder of today with wind gusts to 60 mph. Lower to Middle Texas Coast: Squalls moving into the area through the day Some of these squalls will produce wind gusts as high as 60 mph. Expected Impacts Inland Northeast Mexico and Lower Texas Coast: Localized street flooding could occur. Some power outages possible along the lower Texas coast on Monday afternoon. Middle and Upper Texas Coast: Widespread street flooding is likely to result in major travel delays. Some flood damage cannot be ruled out. Near where landfall occurs, widespread power outages are possible along with minor wind damage.
If it’s going through a center reformation (or in reality forming a legit center instead of rotating vortexes around a gyre), and it is more NE of where the models initialized for 18z, there could be some shifts in the track. Time will tell though as we get into 00z runs late tonight and early tomorrow morning.
