Pig made it through! We brought him inside before the brunt of the storm. We gave him a bunch of cbd treats and he passed out on beanbag. He spent today digging a giant mudpit where the fence colllapsed.
https://spacecityweather.com/unsett...opical-mischief-misses-to-our-east-this-week/ Beyond next week: Other tropical threats? There have been some posts circulating on social media regarding various deterministic (singular) model runs showing a hurricane in the Gulf around mid-month. I’ll be honest, the operational GFS has been quite consistently showing a system (of varying intensity) in the Gulf around mid-month (sometimes in Mexico, sometimes in Texas, sometimes elsewhere). While the GFS ensemble has been, in this forecaster’s opinion, one of the best tools to use in the tropics to identify possible threats the last two hurricane seasons, the GFS operational model still has many flaws. This is especially true on a day 10+ forecast. I don’t care how consistent it has been showing a certain outcome: It is still a day 10+ operational forecast model, and it is *not* meant to be used with any specificity whatsoever. While it’s nauseating to deal with this stuff multiple times per hurricane season, it is the world we presently live in, and so let me be the one to tell you: At this time, you do not need to be worried about the threats shown on operational models that various, mostly anonymous Facebook pages are sharing. Ensemble support for this system is not zero, but it’s not at a high enough volume yet where I begin getting concerned. And there is absolutely no dominant signal within the ensembles as to where such a system may or may not track even if it develops. Some show Mexico, some show Texas, some show east of here, some (roughly half) show no development at all! We see scenarios like this show up multiple times per hurricane season. Sometimes they lead to development. Often times, they do not. So, could this change? Absolutely, but sitting here today it would irresponsible to pump up the operational GFS model on day 11 without showing the ensembles at the same time which paint a less ominous picture. Let’s talk when it’s inside 7 days and see where we stand. It is the peak of hurricane season, so you should be checking in regularly anyway. But we see nothing exceptional at this very early stage. Spoiler
Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:14 AM CDT Tuesday September 07, 2021 Larry Hurricane Larry is a little over 800 miles southeast of Bermuda. Winds are estimated to be near 120 mph. Its current northwest motion will gradually become more northerly over the next two days. This northward turn is expected to keep the storm east of Bermuda. It is forecast to make its closest approach to Bermuda on Thursday before accelerating to the northeast. By late Friday into Saturday, Larry may be very near southeastern Newfoundland as a strong tropical storm. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 37 is a poorly defined system located just northwest of the Yucatan Peninsula. The disturbance will move northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico, reaching the Florida Panhandle by late Wednesday or early Thursday. Upper-level winds remain quite hostile for development over the Gulf. Therefore, development is not expected as the system approaches the Florida Panhandle. Locally heavy rainfall is likely for the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia late Wednesday into Thursday. There remains a slight risk of development into a tropical depression once the system is offshore Georgia and South Carolina by the end of the week. No significant impacts are expected for coastal Georgia or coastal South Carolina. The chance of development within 48 hours is zero percent. The chance of development within 7 days is 20 percent. Disturbance 40 is along 30W and moving west near 15 mph. The system exhibits strong atmospheric rotation. However, the disturbance is encountering some dry air. Thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Model guidance is not indicating development. However, conditions are expected to be modestly favorable for development. Therefore, we estimated that development chances are zero percent within 48 hours and 20 percent within 7 days. Disturbance 38 has moved into Central America and has been removed from our analysis.
Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 03:55 AM CDT Friday September 10, 2021 Larry As of the 4 AM AST advisory, Hurricane Larry was located about 850 miles SW of St. John's, Newfoundland. It is moving to the north at 23 mph. A turn to the northeast, with an acceleration, is expected today. Larry is forecast to make landfall in SE Newfoundland tonight or very early tomorrow. Winds are currently 80 mph. No significant change in intensity is expected before landfall. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 43 is along 88.5W, moving into southern Belize. The system is moving to the west-northwest at 8 to 10 mph. A turn more to the northwest is expected, which will take the disturbance into the Bay of Campeche this weekend and then toward northern Mexico or South Texas. There are no signs of organization at the moment. However, conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development once the system moves into the Bay of Campeche and the Gulf of Mexico. If development occurs, the system is not currently likely to become stronger than a weak to moderate tropical storm. Regardless of development, the disturbance is expected to bring enhanced rainfall and the potential for flooding for eastern Mexico as well as the eastern parts of Texas through the middle of next week. The chance of tropical development within the next 48 hours is 20 percent and is 50 percent within the next 7 days. Disturbance 44 has been identified over western Africa along 13.5W. This system is expected to move to the west-northwest around 10 to 15 mph over the next several days. This will take the system toward the Cabo Verde Islands early next week. Conditions appear somewhat favorable for development. However, the models are backing off on developing the system. The chance of tropical development is 30 percent within the next 48 hours and 50 percent within the next 7 days. Disturbance 40 is located along 46.5W. It is moving to the west-northwest at 14 mph. This motion should continue over the next several days. There are no signs of organization, and conditions are unfavorable for tropical development. As the system moves into the subtropical western Atlantic late next week, conditions may become a little more favorable for development. The chance of development within the next 7 days is 10 percent. Disturbance 42 is located along 30W. It is moving to the west-northwest at 12 mph. There are no thunderstorms associated with this disturbance. No development is expected.
Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 02:08 PM CDT Friday September 10, 2021 Special Update for Disturbance 43 Over Yucatan Peninsula Larry As of 3 PM AST, Hurricane Larry was located about 315 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Max sustained winds are about 80 mph. Larry is predicted to track near the eastern tip of Newfoundland tonight as it begins its transition to a large non-tropical storm system. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 43 is moving across the Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon. It will be spreading heavy squalls with wind gusts to 50 mph across the Bay of Campeche on Saturday morning. Steering currents will drive the disturbance and its associated squalls northwestward toward northeast Mexico and the southern Texas coast on Sunday. Squalls will reach the deepwater areas off the lower Texas coast during the day on Sunday. By Sunday evening, these squalls will be moving ashore into northeast Mexico and much of the Texas coast. The main disturbance will likely move inland between northeast Mexico and the middle Texas coast by Monday afternoon. We think that this disturbance could develop a weak circulation center prior to moving ashore, similar to Tropical Storm Mindy earlier this week. The National Hurricane Center has demonstrated that such weak low centers will be classified as a depression or a named storm. Given that, we think that there is about a 60 percent chance that this disturbance will be classified as a tropical depression by Sunday afternoon and an 80 percent chance it will be classified as a tropical depression or a very weak tropical storm prior to it moving ashore on Monday. The important thing to note is that whether or not this disturbance is classified as a depression or a weak tropical storm, the impacts across the northwest Gulf, Mexico, and Texas will be the same. The disturbance will bring squalls with wind gusts as high as 60 mph across the western and northwest Gulf on Sunday then heavy rain into northeast Mexico and coastal Texas between Sunday night and Tuesday. Rainfall amounts on the northeast Mexico and Texas coasts are expected to average 4-6 inches between Sunday night and Tuesday. Some locations may receive higher amounts. No wind impacts are expected inland. If the overnight model runs still support weak development in the western Gulf on Sunday or Monday, then we plan to initiate advisories by 10 AM CDT tomorrow. Disturbance 40 is a weak location area with little or no squall activity about 750 miles east of Barbados near 13N/48.5W. The disturbance is predicted to track north of the eastern Caribbean Islands early next week, with little or no impacts there. By next Wednesday, the disturbance will be located off the southeast U.S. Coast, east of the northern Bahamas. It is there that it has some model support for development, possibly becoming a tropical storm threat to the southeast or Mid-Atlantic Coast next Thursday or Friday. Development chances are estimated to be 0 percent over the next 48 hours and 30 percent next Wednesday or Thursday off the southeast U.S. Coast. Disturbance 44 is moving off the west coast of Africa this afternoon. The disturbance is predicted to track across the Cabo Verde Islands tomorrow night and Sunday then northwestward into the open Atlantic. The highest chance of development will be on Sunday or Monday as it passes the Cabo Verde Islands. Beyond then, model guidance indicates weakening and dissipation. Development chances are estimated to be 50 percent over the next 48 hours and 70 percent beyond 48 hours. Disturbance 42 has dissipated in the eastern Atlantic.
