What do y'all think about Matijevic? Another 2-hit game today, up to .247 AVG as a Skeeter, 26 or so homers between AA and AAA. If he can get his K rate down I think he'll be solid. Yes he'll be 26 next year but Max Muncy, a fair comp IMO (despite having a cup of coffee or two before) didn't break out until 27. Can see JJ being a 30+ HR a year guy if he can do that. Would like to see him in Houston next year as a mid-season call up and then inherit 1B from Gurriel in 2023.
Wow. Pena puts in an off-season of work in the weight room and goes from a maybe 10 homer guy to a potential 20+ homer guy...with plus defense to boot.
He would have to take at least some small step forward in terms of reducing strikeouts, but my ultimate ceiling comp for Matijevic is Kyle Schwarber. For now I think he will pan out as a 3rd division DH/LF or a AAAA bat for a contending team like the Astros.
Jeremy Pena sure is doing every single thing he can to make the statement that he should be the Astros starting SS next season. 158 wRC+, 8 HR and 5 SB in 20 g. He is obviously being very aggressive with a really low 4.5% bb rate, but it is good aggression (so far) with only 24.7% k rate, .341 ISO, and .385 BABIP. And while 89 pa isn’t a huge sample, it’s large enough to indicate that Pena should be pretty highly rated as a prospect. I have repeated a Willy Adames comp (a well above average everyday SS) but this AAA stint is painting him more like Javier Baez with a few less strikeouts (which would be a borderline MVP candidate).
No way Pena is Javy Baez. 30 homers is really a stretch. I think he can be a Tim Anderson with a much lower average. Similar pop (15-20 HR), good speed, better defense than Tim, probably ends up hitting .270 range (maybe higher depending on the contact rate) with a little swing and miss, an aggressive approach with maybe 30-40 walks a year. I think I actually just described Willy Adames with more speed actually lol.
I don’t see why he wouldn’t have 25HR pop, his last minor league season was a while ago and he’s put on significant mass since then. Seems like the Astros do a good job of guiding prospects swings towards optimal launch angle too. If his defense is as good as advertised I don’t see why he can’t be a star.
I still think Adames is a better and more accurate comp for Pena. But Pena has gotten 1/4 of the way to 30 HR in just 20 games, coming off a major injury. I wouldn’t bet even money on him having a 30 HR season in the majors, but it’s certainly looking like a possibility. You can take one look at the guy and see he is nowhere near the same kid they drafted. He totally remade his body. Now it is also looking like he remade his swing and approach.
It's just too early to tell how with the information we have available how real this power surge is compared to how he has performed in the past where he never approached a >.180 ISO. Is his max exit velo greater now than it was in the past? Has his attack angle changed such that he can maintain his highest exit velos at launch angles >20 degrees? I think it would be easier to compare if they had him in AA with the MiLB ball. A lot of crazy things seem to happen now in AAA with hitters since they have moved to the MLB ball.
When i think of Pena my first thought is him taking deGrom deep in spring training when nobody else could touch him in our lineup. deGrom gave up 2 hits and struck out 6 in 4 innings that day.
Pena looks like a baby Correa, I remember Correa’s MILB highlights just looking like total domination, men amongst boys…granted I’ve only seen Pena’s highlights but man he looks great.
