The rookie level Florida Coast League (FCL, formerly known as the Gulf Coast League, or GCL) starts up tomorrow according to their website's schedule. There had previously been a graphic showing that the Astros would field 2 teams (Orange and Blue) but according to the schedule there is only one team. The roster has yet to be updated, as it only has 6 pitchers on it. There are quite a few DSL guys who I am pretty sure have been moved up and will be able to fill that roster up. Prospects I'm most interested in who I expect to be on that roster: SS Dauri Lorenzo C Miguel Palma IF Cristian Gonzalez OF Yimmi Cortabarria DH Raider Uceta
With the caveat that Meyers' sample size is smaller than the rest, his AAA performance so far is on par with any Astros' prospect in the last 10 years. Excluding players who had already reached the majors and having a minimum of 150 pa, his 143 wRC+ ranks 4th, just between Yordan Alvarez and Domingo Santana, after George Springer and JD Davis. I'm not saying Meyers is as good of a hitter as Alvarez or Springer, but his AAA line is very close: Springer .319/.431/.630 15%bb 24%k Alvarez .306/.403/.615 14%bb 22%k Meyers .327/.398/.623 8%bb 20%k Factoring in that Meyers is the best defensive CF in Houston's system, he should certainly be getting a lot of attention. At 181 pa, there's still some cloudiness that could be in those numbers, via facing weak pitching or getting lucky on balls missing guys (or possibly even benefitting from different baseballs and guys not using sticky), but at a minimum Meyers is showing that he has the power in his bat to be a really, really good player. I have been a fan of Meyers for 3 years but I never ever expected him to show 30 HR potential like he is doing now. Given his defensive value and bb/k #'s, he could be another Ramon Laureano (if everything breaks right), who's been worth 9.7 fWAR over 2 full seasons worth of games.
Who are y'all's updated top 10 prospects in our system now that we're about half way into the mlb year? Im assuming Korey Lee is our new #1
My rankings updated for June: 1. C Korey Lee 55 2. RHP Hunter Brown 50 3. SS/CF Pedro Leon 50 4. SS Jeremy Pena 50 5. RHP Forrest Whitley 50 6. RHP Alex Santos 45+ 7. 3B Joe Perez 45+ 8. OF Colin Barber 45+ 9. SS Freudis Nova 45+ 10. RHP Peter Solomon 45 11. RHP Jairo Solis 45 12. OF Jake Meyers 45 13. IF Grae Kessinger 45 14. RHP Jaime Melendez 45 15. RHP Angel Macuare 45 16. IF Dauri Lorenzo 45 17. RHP Shawn Dubin 45 18. OF Ronnie Dawson 45 19. C Mike Papierski 45 20. RHP Tyler Ivey 45 21. RHP Brett Conine 45 22. LHP Jonathan Bermudez 45 23. RHP Austin Hansen 45 24. OF Jordan Brewer 45 25. RHP Nivaldo Rodriguez 45 26. RHP Tyler Brown 45 27. OF Alex McKenna 45 28. RHP Jose Alberto Rivera 45 29. OF Zach Daniels 45 30. C Nathan Perry 45 Honorable Mentions: C: Scott Manea, Nerio Rodriguez, CJ Stubbs, Juan Santander, Luke Berryhill IF: Alex De Goti, Enmanuel Valdez, Yohander Martinez, Luis Santana, Shay Whitcomb, Narbe Cruz OF: Matthew Barefoot, JJ Matijevic, Norel Gonzalez, Richi Gonzalez, Bryan De La Cruz P: Blair Henley, JP France, Parker Mushinski, Julio Robaina, Jimmy Endersby, Luis Vega, Diosmerky Taveras, Chad Donato, Ryan Gusto
Why does Grae Kessinger get so much love? He's a utility guy at best with no bat. I scratched my head when he was drafted.
Same. Luhnow always seemed to go for bland, "safe" guys in the 2nd until later on in his tenure. He took Perez as a position player and gave him above slot in '17 and then Schroeder in '18 but then went back to blah in his last draft. Then again, he did follow up Kessinger with Brewer (high upside college athlete), Barber (high upside high school athlete, went above slot) and Brown (high upside somewhat raw college pitcher).
I really like your list except that I'd drop Nova and Kessinger way down. I'd honestly be tempted to take Kessinger completely off. What are your thoughts on Tokar? I'd put him in the mix as an honorable mention among the pitchers.
Kessinger’s stock is down no doubt. But I still think there’s some chance for him to show more power than he has. The odds of that happening are dropping but that’s really the only thing keeping him from projecting as a decent everyday big leaguer or super utility guy. In hindsight it might’ve been better for him to have started this season in High A.
You wouldn’t get much argument from me if you listed some other guys ahead of Kessinger to the point he didn’t make a top 30. On my list there’s not much value difference between the guys in the teens and the honorable mention guys. I think Nova has been told to work on a huge change to his approach and he’s struggling with it. His odds of a good outcome are lowered but the talent is still there. You could pretty much put any pitcher on the honorable mention list. I didn’t include Tokar because he appears to already be slotted as a reliever and even though he’s a monster I don’t think his ceiling is that high in that role.
We've touched on the Asheville H/R splits before, but here's some food for thought about the SL guys, cribbed from elsewhere on the 'net: Sugar Land has played 44 games thus far with 11 of those contests (or 25%) played in super hitter friendly parks in Albuquerque and El Paso. Here’s the home/road splits for Skeeter hitters and how in particular those 2 parks have benefited them: (home OPS/road OPS) Jake Meyers (.731/1.259) – .412 BA in ABQ/EP with 9 of his 13 home runs hit in those 2 parks Jose Siri (.645/1.129) – .442 BA in ABQ/EP with 5 of his 8 home runs hit there Bryan De La Cruz (.795/.953) – .412 BA in ABQ/EP with 2 of his 6 home runs and 6 of his 11 doubles hit there Mike Papierski (.704/.990) – .366 BA in ABQ/EP with 1 of his 2 home runs hit there Ronnie Dawson (.766/.870) – .370 BA in ABQ/EP with 1 of his 2 home runs and 5 of his 9 doubles hit there CJ Hinojosa (.537/.889) – .400 BA in ABQ/EP with 6 of his 13 doubles hit there SL has 12 games remaining on the schedule in those two parks with 76 games overall yet to play.
I agree that’s been a factor, but I’m pretty sure Houston’s AAA players have played in those parks in previous seasons as well. Also, those guys are still putting up excellent wRC+ which I’m pretty sure is park adjusted. I think those park factors definitely point to guys like Meyers having their power overstated. But even if Meyers is a 15-20 HR guy instead of a 25-30 HR guy, with his defense that still makes him a 3-4 win player.
Pedro Leon Jeremy Pena Korey Lee Hunter Brown Whitley Meyers Norel Gonzalez Perez Santos Solomon Really don't know how to rate Whitley or Solis.
Last I've heard is that FanGraphs RC+ is league adjusted for the minors, but not park adjusted for the minors.
Wow that’s really high on Norel Gonzalez. What has you so much higher on him than someone like JJ Matijevic or Taylor Jones? Gonzalez won’t have much defensive value so for me at age 27 he would have to be dominating AAA before I’d starting buying in.
All the notes on fangraphs site says it’s park adjusted but never differentiates between minor and majors. There’s Reddit threads that say it’s not park adjusted for minor leagues but nothing concrete.
He hits for power, while walking, and not striking out. Jones and JJ Matijevic are/will likely have problems with contact in the majors which will limit there ability to get value out of their power. Norel Gonzalez has much better odds of being able to have an average or better K Rate which gives him a much better chance for everything else to play up.
Please note that it is not park adjusted for minor league stats, but it is league adjusted. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-is-wrc/
Good point, I hope you’re right. There is definitely a tipping point for AA k rate somewhere between 20% and 30% where it becomes really hard to project a guy as a successful big league hitter, and Matijevic and Gonzalez are right on the fringes (Matijevic being in the risky end but not quite bad enough to write off, Gonzalez being on safer end but not quite good enough to point to it as an elite skill). If Gonzalez were 24 instead of 27 and/or were k’ing at 15% instead of 20%, I would certainly have him rated a lot higher. His age and that he is a pure bat are really working against him for me. But like Leon I think he has had an even longer stretch of not playing competitive games regularly than other prospects so there may be some rust he is still knocking off.
