Weird when I clicked on it earlier it said it was deleted. It’s showing up now. Big opportunity for Melendez. A teenage pitcher succeeding in high A or AA is usually an elite prospect.
It’s possible now but I still consider it very unlikely. I think the most realistic positive outcome is he shows well the rest of this season with a promotion to AAA in late July. Houston then signs a middling option (someone like Andrelton Simmons or Brandon Crawford) or someone who could move around the field (like Marcus Semien, Chris Taylor, or Jonathan Villar) to replace Correa, then Leon gets called up after the service time cutoff next season. Although the new CBA is likely to remove those considerations in which case it’s a lot more plausible that Leon is the opening day SS next season.
The Straw to SS went better than the Leon to SS trial so far. Astros keep trying, but I expect his bat to be screaming for the majors before he's close to ready for SS.
For a quick look at defense (this is more about range than arm), Clay Davenport's stats are good for finding guys at the extremes. Leon has an impressively bad defensive stat for only 20 games at SS. http://claydavenport.com/stats/webpages/2021/2021pageHOUrealALL.shtml
First ive heard of Leon at SS .. thats interesting. I actually thought Leon would be the CF of the future for us.
There sure are a lot of expectations on Leon. He's both the SS and the CF of the future. This from a guy who is hitting .232 in AA and playing bad SS defense (which is understandable given his lack of experience). Here's a list of the top Astros prospects (Baseball America ranking) over the last decade: Jordan Lyles (2011), Jon Singleton (2012), Correa (2013-15), AJ Reed (2016), Martes (2017), Whitley (2018-present). I think the lesson is, don't count on filling holes with a specific prospect. He might develop. Might not. Too soon to tell.
Or, Baseball America was not very good at ranking Astros prospects last decade. They picked Singleton over Springer and Reed over Bregman. Make those switches and things look a lot different (the lesson would likely be “don’t trust pitching prospects”).
He could flop. He could be great. If Leon pans out, the Astros offense may remain the best in the game for the next 4 years. There is good reason to pay attention to him.
Granted on those two picks. Bregs, Springer, and Correa were all high first round picks, too. If you think that it's just pitching prospects that don't pan out, though, you're kidding yourself. They are riskier, yes - but there's plenty of risk to position players too. The Astros had high hopes for Reed and Singleton.
There's every reason to pay attention to him. But you should use pencil, not ink, if you're drafting future lineups that involve his bat.
Oh totally; risk is inherent in prospect evaluation. Although I don’t think Houston banked on Reed. But they definitely thought Singleton would be a cornerstone piece. Luckily sometimes the busts are offset by breakouts from guys nobody expected to amount to much (Altuve).
You should use pencil for establish MLB players as well because you never known when a Cy Young winner is going to need Tommy John or someone's knees give out. Sure there is less variance among MLB position players, but we live in a world of grays. On Reed and Singleton, they were bad defenders and were considered high reward-high risk prospects. If Leon's bat fails, he probably still hangs around as a 4th OF.
Oh, absolutely. All the current young pitching that's developed, too. I think the system ultimately produces - just not always who you expect. Those 2013 and 2014 team had guys like J.D. Martinez, Villar, Marwin, Marisnick, and Altuve. All young talent that didn't have huge expectations coming in. (And guys like Brett Wallace and Matt Dominguez who dramatically underperformed their draft status).
