I agree that they will likely exceed the public rankings, but I'm not sure about the top as those teams just have so many position player prospects. I do think that the Astros use of tandem pitching/limiting innings/max effort development of pitching causes every pitching prospect to get pigeon-holed as a reliever in the eyes of public rankings. The public rankings still act like 200 innings is a goal for most teams. Sure, if you have an ace prospect, you try to develop that. If you have a guy that can pitch like an ace for 120 innings, you develop that instead of a 200-inning pitcher that you don't want to pitch in the playoffs.
I certainly think the farm will be ranked higher at the end of this season than it is now. I don’t think there are any Bregman/Correa/Altuve/Alvarez/Springer types in the current system outside of maybe Leon, but there are more than a handful of guys who could be Castro/Tucker/Gurriel/Marwin level players. And the pitching is always so hard to predict, but there are more 98-100 guys in this system than just about any other.
I agree there are no future MVP’s in the system, but I do think Brown especially has a chance to be very good. There are a group of players like Lee, Pena, Abreu, Garcia that could be good for a long time.... the super upside wildcards are Whitley, Leon, Barber and Perez.... Barber is someone that Luhnow had a really high opinion of.
I take prospect rankings with a giant grain of salt under normal circumstances. Add to it that they didn't have a minor league season in 2020 and I'm nearly ignoring them at this point. The production we received from Javier, Paredes, Taylor, Scrubb, and Garcia last year is just another example of how much variance and inaccuracy there is in prospect evaluations. Javier went from not even being a top 100 prospect to finishing 3rd in ROY.
Especially with pitching prospects, it is just silly to rank them. You can get some idea of ceiling from stats, scouting reports, and velo readings, but in terms of overall value of pitching prospects it is very random.
Top velocity mentions in the mlb.com top 30: Whitley 99 Brown 98 Garcia 97 Solis 97 (I’ve heard higher) Ivey 95 Santos 96 Dubin 97 Abreu 97 Solomon 96 Brown 96 Torres 100 Conine 96 Hansen 96 Lopez 95 Rodriguez 95 Henley 94 I know at least one guy not on this list (Diosmerky Taveras) can get up near 100.
There is a lot of variance, but it wasn't like Javier, Paredes, and Garcia came out of no where. I didn't think Javier would get a crack as a starter last season. I expected that the Astros would get two high leverage relievers out of Javier, Paredes, and Abreu. If it wasn't for the starters injuries/sucking/plague, Valdez and Javier would have anchored a hellacious bullpen instead of having to bail out a beat up rotation.
A nice article on teams ability to add velocity in the minors. https://theathletic.com/2411652/2021/03/10/best-worst-teams-developing-velocity/ Excerpt: “Astros were higher on our list,” they said. “It matters how you value velocity and movement, and that’s very different from team to team.” Multiple sources confirmed that the Dodgers, Reds, Mariners and Astros were showing some ability to move the shape and velocity of their minor-league pitchers — even if the scope and scale might be less than a leaderboard like this one might lead you to believe — and also that the Brewers seem to value movement differently than others. Edit: I find it funny how much perception of the Astros has changed in a little over a year regarding pitching development in the minors.
Players slated for AAA got in the 2nd half of yesterday’s game at every position except LF: C Stubbs 1B Jones 2B De Goti SS Garcia 3B Hinojosa RF De La Cruz CF Siri LF (Diaz played yesterday but this would likely be Jake Meyers if McCormick makes the big league roster) DH Dawson
Bryan De La Cruz is an interesting prospect. Nothing stands out in his minor league stat lines but he’s been mentioned over the past several seasons for his contact profile, so he must hit the ball pretty hard. He also must not be terrible on defense. Possibly the type of prospect who blossoms into HR power and becomes a decent everyday RF.
Astros got back Rule 5 pick JA Rivera. Another guy who can throw 100, although apparently his velocity was down in ST with the Angels. He should be in AA, which will have a stacked rotation of Solomon, Solis, Dubin, Torres, Rivera, and Hansen. Hunter Brown and Blair Henley both should also reach AA pretty quickly.
Only 4 of Houston’s top 30 prospects are expected to graduate this year: Abreu, Garcia, Jones, and McCormick. Solis, Solomon, and Ivey are on the 40 man but it’s probably not likely any of them get enough mlb innings to lose prospect status. So wherever this farm is ranked now, they should be ranked a handful of spots higher by the end of the season just based on retention. The QO outlook for next season has also cleared up a bit since we know McCullers won’t reach free agency and Correa is extremely likely to sign elsewhere. The main question there is if they will QO Verlander. 2 extra picks in the 2022 draft would be a good injection of talent to make up for the picks they lost in the cheating scandal. It’s a bummer their pick for Springer was only a 4th rounder.
