Calling my long shot now - Covid and HIV are going to do a RNA swap to bring you super virulent Airborne AIDS, circa 2028. Someone sneezes on the bus, and everybody doing a head-to-toe check to make sure they haven't broken out in Kaposi sarcoma. Bet people won't be too picky about getting THAT vaccine.
The next disaster is gene splicing goes wrong. A new apex specie emerge to topple the human race. Their first act is to take away people's home air conditioning making humans really uncomfortable in the summer.
No, it's literally what you get used to. The human body is quite adaptable. Has nobody been camping for more than a weekend? I lived in an old ranch house with no insulation, AC, for several years. Wood stove in the winter. My grandmother never had AC in her house until we made her put a window unit in her bedroom when she was in her 80's, that was about 10 years ago. I can now handle heat and cold, but humidity just kills me (I'll start sweating in about 32.4 seconds). I grew up in Houston constantly surrounded by swamp humidity. Could I do any of that again now? Hell no, I'm spoiled (again).
I know and agree. Been out of doors for a week at a time. I never camped much in Texas though, outside of Big Bend, and a few car camping episodes. Backpacking trips always headed for New Mexico. From childhood around Houston, I did think about, on the most humid days, that the air was like a sleeping thing, with teeth, something you didn't want to wake up by moving too fast.
More cascading effects from climate change: More of Antarctica and Greenland melting with related decrease in ocean salinity. Increase in ocean heat. More, bigger, and longer fires, including in places that haven't regularly experienced them in the past. More food inflation due to reduced crop yields from drought. Increase in mortality of Sequoias and other micro-climate species. Water shortages. Grid failures, including reduced capacity due to drought effects on hydropower facilities. Deadly heat waves. More floods. Increased migration and social crises in response to food and water stressors. Increase in insurance premiums or in ability to acquire insurance in large areas. Growing realization that places like Miami, Phoenix, and New Orleans are dead men walking and the related economic, societal, and political costs. Our inability to think and plan strategically for what's coming. Our inability to get our politics to focus on the long-term in a meaningful way, including the hard questions of adaptability, relocation, prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery. Then there are the others: Cascadia Subduction Zone popping--my guess is between now and 2035. San Andreas Fault rupturing. New Madrid Fault going. Rainier eruption. Fascism US brain drain (especially educated women) resulting from political environment and Supreme Court rulings. The end of football as we know it just because of a few brain injuries (will really improve our international rugby chances though). AI changing how we view work and what that means for society. The continued accumulation of wealth and power by the few. Continued problems with health care and senior care. The continued politicization of public health. Aliens. Zombies. Bigfoot (he's coming back and he's pissed). People from Oklahoma.
I think climate change/ intense agriculture will lead to a major disruption in global food supplies. I don’t necessarily think we will have WW3 ( wouldn’t be surprised) but I do think we have many smaller wars over resources.
Out of curiosity, what American city/area would a disaster planner pick in terms of geography? Like for water, the northeast won't be short of rainfall anytime soon. That way I can pretend to know where to walk 1-2000 km from the made in china compass found inside my bugout bag purchased from Amazon.
If you're picking a place that will see lesser climate change effects than others, your best bets are probably the Pacific NW west of the Cascades and maybe west of the Coast Range would be even better, the far upper Midwest, and New England. Some folks think northern MN will be the place to be by 2050. New England would be nice, but there will be a lot of east coast money chasing real estate in Vermont and Maine (Burlington is already ridiculously expensive). On the PNW side, you'll have fires and smoke to contend with but water and growing seasons should be OK. It will probably be more like NorCal is now in terms of temps. However, there are also earthquakes and such to think about. There will be pockets in other places, like maybe NW Montana. In addition to water and milder climate impacts, you want access to some amenities (like healthcare) and to have a decent government and an educated class that can solve problems and plan strategically. It will help to have local agriculture too. The thing is, you need to look at your current environment with a critical eye and figure out where your family will have the best shot long-term. You don't want to be the last one to leave the neighborhood or the last one to buy into a neighborhood that is hardened physically and politically against climate-related disasters. Areas I would look at right now to stash some property for my kids and grandkids (for you youngsters, it might also be to retire or even live): Duluth, MN Marquette, MI Portland/Augusta/Bangor, ME Newport/Astoria, OR Acreage in MN and the UP of MI is the cheapest option right now, but going up fast. There are some deals to be had along the Oregon coast, but the Washington coast is too isolated and too exposed for my liking. I could make an argument for Olympia and Bellingham in WA though both are expensive already. New England will be tough for most and only get tougher. It is inevitable that many will not be able to move and thus will take a huge hit on property values and quality of life. Unfortunately, by the time everyone starts to see things clearly, the early birds will pulling the curtain closed on the resilient places. Your best bet may be to get together with extended family/group of friends and pool funds to buy some property in the next couple of years. I think by 2030, most folks will be priced out of the desirable places. It might also make sense to get your family dual-citizenship in an EU country. That doubles your options in terms of places and more than doubles your options in terms of finding a good government/educated group place that will seriously work the problems. Oh, and I don't think the Rockies are a good bet long-term. Too much dependency on surface water but snowpack is expected to continue to decline and drought is expected to be ever-present. All that said, it's really difficult to predict especially when you consider that everywhere will have bad things happen. We're just trying to figure out the least bad places.
I scratched a bunch of numbers on the inside of a door at school and on a sheet of paper that was buried in a time capsule and recently dug up. Little did I know that the numbers were GPS coordinates of tragedies along with the number of people killed. I have to steal the Declaration of Independence to figure out how to stop this before it’s too late.
