Bingo. The "Come Home" voters I'm referring to that are looking for excuses to hate Biden aren't who end up mattering. That was sort of my point. It's just a fraction of Independent voters who will vote with their pocket books who will flood the electoral votes to Biden if they see what we all see now which is incompetence flushing our economy down the drain while the rich Trump donors get richer through corruption. Democrats will crawl through broken glass to vote Trump out. Turnout regardless will be massive for Democrats. It's about economics affecting just a couple points off of independents in swing states that will cause a wave that will send Trump packing.
Except for FL all of those are within the margins of error. A lot could and will change between now and Nov. but at the moment this is looking remarkably similar to 2016.
No problem with disagreeing I like push back to make me think about things I may have missed. I am pretty savvy about politics and people and even I was thinking that maybe Trump could work because he was not an ideologue and had relationships with democratic leadership, i thought he would tack to the middle. I would never vote for him and did not but these were things that could sway swing voters. I did not know he would double down and I underestimated how stupid he and his family were, I think a large percentage of Obama voters who switched feel about the same as me and will switch again. But hey I never thought he would continue to have around 40% support so we never know.
I don't think there are come home voters both sides are pretty entrenched.Trump is not a candidate that you waver on either you like him or you don't. There is also some come home for democrats that voted for Trump in 2016.
I don't think voters will forget things leading up to these events and will remember all that Trump has done before and since. He will not let them forget because he keeps tweeting and his rallies. I guess I just don't believe once you leave Trump you go back.
Uh, yeah, if you do commit the bayesian sin of only using this poll alone, he's done. He can't lose Florida, period. Anyway, I get this - as I know you can count on the "it's 2016 all over again" people to never stop saying "it's 2016 all over again!" , but other than the fact that Trump is running again, which, I guess makes it similar, there's a ton that makes it remarkably different both in terms of pure empirical polling data, the mood/activation of the electorate, and the situation of both Trump and his opponent. But again, feel free to continue to believe that - if it motivates people to do more to defeat fascism/tyranny/malignancy I'm all for operating under that perception.
agreed, and I heavily doubt this virus will be under control by then we could have 200k+ dead by August or September Trump has pretty much ignored it (just make sure to sign that waiver before attending his Tulsa rally so he won’t be held liable if u contract the virus)
YOu might be right, but never underestimate the abilty of Trump to keep plumbing new bottoms to keep himself anchored to the floor. All of his horribleness was willing to be overlooked when there wasn't mass death, mass unemployment, and mass unrest, but now his tricks of diversion and division h don't seem to be working nearly as well as they used to.
Yes we should look to 2016 as an object lesson. It's that very thinking that it was in the bag is a big reason why we aren't here debating President Hillary Clinton's response to COVID-19.
Yet with all of Trump's horribleness his poll ratings aren't much different than what they have been most of his term. That should be very concerning that so much could go wrong yet around 40% of the US still supports him and he won with 46% of the electorate.
I think the whole “kill grandma” message has not play well with the right leaning senior citizens of Florida. The more “dead grandmas” between now and November will drive more retired Florida voter to Biden.
This true but nobody is saying it's in the bag at least I am not seeing it. It's ok to look at all the factors that are currently present.
You can't use his bad National #s as a sword and shield - 40-45% approval is bad for an incumbent. 50-60% disapproval is even worse, it's basically unprecedented. Why don't we look to 2008 or 1932 or 1976 or 80 or 92. You can find parallels wherever you want. And "thinking" really had nothing to do with it, unless Comey and the media s thinking led them to the disastrous ly stupid letter.
Your post is mostly valid. I'd take issue with the point bolded above. Trump won a razor-thin victory that owed itself a lot to anti-Hillary protest votes, many of which were only that, because many of the people that cast those votes never thought there was any chance in hell Trump would become president. I've done similar things when I knew my vote didn't matter because I vote in Texas--I did it twice with Bill Clinton, for reasons too long to get into here. My protest votes and the anti-Hillary protest votes were motivated by the exact same thing--a belief that my/their vote didn't count. To hold onto those voters, Trump would need to turn what is currently only a referendum on Trump, like every presidential reelection campaign, into a huge anti-Biden sentiment, triggering similar protest votes, and I don't see how he does that. Worse for him, people know now that he has an excellent chance of winning, a thing many of them did not think was possible in 2016. Considering the tiny margins of victory in decisive swing states in 2016, he only needs to lose a sliver of those protest voters to lose it all. Trump needs to run the table in order to win. He can't afford to lose voters in any area. And he will and he already has to some extent, in every single bloc that voted for him in the last election. He can't afford any of that. Not to mention that there is about a 0% chance Covid will be gone by November or that the economy will have rebounded. I'm wishing for that too, much more than I am that Biden wins, but every scientist will tell you that that's a pipe dream. He had a chance to contain the virus, contain most of the deleterious effects on the economy, allowing him to coast to victory, but he let it go by. And there's no putting that toothpaste back into the tube.
So what do you think about the folks here that try to act independent but we know they are looking for excuses to vote Trump? I don't want to call anyone out but we know who they are. Do you think that's just an anomaly here or do you think that's more widespread? I know in my personal life several friends who are definitely at risk of coming home to Trump. They are also all upper middle class women who argue with their Trumper husbands about Trump about how terrible he is as a human and social issues like BLM where they don't want to seem like a hateful racist, but they say little things that make me believe they'll use any excuse they can to side with their husband in the end with some justification that "Biden is just as bad blah blah". (That being said, they are not NEARLY as worked up about Biden as they were about Hillary FYI) It's all anecdotal of course, but I see it in my personal experience. Again, those folks voted for Trump in 2016 almost certainly (but I know some that might have voted for Beto and Colin Aldred for Congress in 2018 cause they were considered pretty cool around DFW) so its not new voters for Trump IMO but it's the difference that has him sway from 38 to 45% in polls when its captured in times its easier to think that he is blowing it big time, and other times when the economy is seemingly doing fine, and the big concerns are PC culture, or other stupid distractions, those 4 to 8% will probably feel the green light to come home.
Here's something else to consider. Maybe it's been mentioned, maybe it hasn't. I haven't read the whole thread... At the Trump rallies, how are his supporters going to play for him? Will they help or harm him? When I think of what I've seen from the crowds at Trump's rallies, especially at this moment in our country's history, I don't see them helping him. Are they going to get other racist/racist-lite/Covid-denying/conspiracy theorist voters all charged up? I'd say that those voters are exactly the ones that make up his 35-40% base already and that they will only alienate the other 60-65% of the country. Especially independents/undecideds though there are precious few people in those camps anymore.
