Yeah I agree that's his theory - but I think he's wrong. If Trump wins PA, it's because the models missed something specific there. GA/NC and AZ have totally different demographics, so a surge in PA doesn't necessarily translate to surges elsewhere. It's similar to 2016 when the models messed up the midwest but got the rest of the country right for the most part.
RCP average head Hillary winning the national vote by 3 points and she ended up winning by 2 points which is completely in the spread of margin of error, so that one seems pretty accurate. She of course lost the electoral college... but if the RCP average is as accurate as it was last year, it looks like Biden will have a 6 point lead nationally, which would win the election.
Considering how easy it was for past politicians to have it crumble from one misstep in past years, its mind boggling how trump is the hill people are willing to die on. This guy? The most basic stereotypical caricature of a charlatan. The epitome of the "give you a free air freshener but will upsell you everything else" car salesman. This guy? I imagine people will look at this era years from now and be like what was this...
This is like the anti-science people. Since the science isn't perfect, just ignore it. But be totally confident in things that have literally no evidence at all instead.
I agree, I'd rather 0%, but 10%...I do like my chances. I mean if you're up by 1 run and a .100 hitter is up to the plate with the tying run on second in the deciding WS game, you're still sweating...I do get that, especially when he beat the odds before.
Yeah, but the sakes are a bit higher than a World Series championship. This is more likely playing Russian Roulette with a 10 chamber gun.
4 yr ago, polls had Hillary leading, but never above 50%; the lead was declining steady from Julyon. In 2020, Biden’s lead has widen steadily, to where he is above 50% nationwide and many of the battleground states such as Mi, Wi, Minn, Az, etc
Hillary was a perfect storm of a lame candidate, apathetic voters, people not taking Trump seriously, Bernie supporters revenge votes, and rural people generally curious if Trump meant what he said. I dont believe that will be the case this time around. But thats why we play the games.
If anyone is hankering for results, Biden just swept all 5 votes in Dixville Notch (and there was downballot ticket splitting on most of them)
LOL... feel free to create your own posts with Biden's lies. If they are so common you should have no problem posting them. Of course, trump is a virtual lie machine... in July they counted over 20,000 documented lies he has uttered. My gosh, he even admitted to lying about COVID-19.
LOL... everyone is "brainwashed" except for the 30-40% of people that support trump. Think about that.
Biden should declare victory! And demand that all the votes counted from here on out are illegitimate
That's downright scary that 30-40% of Americans support this corrupt president. Trumpicans, I know or hope ya'll didn't graduate from Trump University, please do some research and educate yourselves. You have bipartisan fact-checkers that keep flagging Trump lies but ya'll keep falling for it.
