All of these swing states are going to be very close because many of them have historically leaned Republican. Anyone that thinks it is a foregone conclusion that Biden wins is mistaken..... Also, many of these states are connected... for example, if Trump wins a state like Wisconsin, then there is a good chance that he also carries Pennsylvania, etc.......the inverse is true as well, if Biden wins Georgia, then he is very likely going to win Florida and Carolina, etc.
I'm going to be like a FOX viewer and create my own reality in my head where it is a forgone conclusion..... so I can eat and not throw up the next 5 days. Whoohoo, A Blue Wave!
He has a 1 in 10 chance. It's something. He wins FL, NC or AZ and that goes up to 3 in 10. It goes to 8 in 10 if he wins WI. He loses FL, NC, OH, IO, GA or TX he's done. He loses Pa or Az, he's very close to being done (< 2%).
I personally think his odds are better than 1:10 and odds are one of the things that I am big into...... I have gambled quite a bit, especially on sports and have consistently made money by being very choosy about what I bet on. I think Trump is screwed when it comes to the popular vote, but the strategy at the state level is different...... and Trump is not a normal establishment candidate.... people are not always rational actors.
has wall street shown its hand, that Trump will lose ? It's in the cards, Trump will be fired by American voters; thus, Twitter's Daily Avg User #'s will decline dramatically.
I accept there is greater variation and some unknown with Trump. But working with the known, and this time that means also with local district level polls, it reinforces the 1 in 10, for me. I actually think it's less, but I accept that it's that because of the unknown (in particular, is Trump able to turn out the white non-college at a record level - 60-70%). In 2016, I have a completely different feeling, and I though he has a 3 to 4 in 10 chance back then (the # of undecided was what made me nervous back then - my logic was, if by now you are still undecided, you are likely to break toward him than her and with the undecided > that the gap between them, it was close to a tossup to me). This, of course, doesn't take into any consideration of a contested election. If it comes down to that, I think he would win - but the chance of a contested election, or one as close as 2016, is very slim - 5 in 100. After Biden winning, the next thing I hope for is a clear winner, even if it's Trump. The political environment is too toxic for a 2001 repeat. I think the gov would be broken after 4 more year with Trump, but that's slightly better than a country at war.
I call them the new authoritarian party. GOP used to say security this and that. Now, just throw out the votes. The less people vote count, the better. It's completely anti-democratic. I hope they loss and I hope the public remember these shameful tactics for a long time.
Unless they somehow think people voted more than once? Or people who weren't registered go to vote? Not sure why drive-thru voting (if you're going to say its ok for some people) shouldn't be allowed in these times.
it's not about security or voter fraud (they at least have some legit argument there) it's about throwing out votes casted by citizen
National does not mean squat. Only the 6 Swing States. Winning the Popular Vote does not mean squat, only the Electoral College. Play these on a loop on every TV Station in all of them.
You know the answer, it is all voter suppression by the GOP because they know that they will lose if voting is made easy.
compare it to the 2016 map of actual election votes. An increase of voters in those blue (and light pink) counties can't be good for Red. Spoiler: spoiler for size
So sad, for Landside Loser Trump. The New York Times also reports that Trump canceled an election night party, "President Trump has called off plans to appear at the Trump International Hotel on election night and is likely to be at the White House instead, according to a person familiar with the plans."
