Rockets need to wrap up this series up before the storm hits, so we don't have to worry about cable or electricity going out and missing a game.
Well, @KingCheetah was right, the b*stard. BOTH tracks moved West overnight. #14 is a boy! And his name is Marco. He's headed our way to visit and it looks like he's bringing his girl, Laura! Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:51 AM CDT Saturday August 22, 2020 Active Systems Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon Laura 40 mph Tropical Storm 17.5N 65.0W Marco 45 mph Tropical Storm 19.4N 85.4W Laura Tropical Storm Laura is located about 70 miles southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. A general west-northwest track is expected over the next few days with little change in strength. It is expected to pass just south of Puerto Rico later today and move over the Dominican Republic tonight. By Sunday and Monday, it is forecast to move across Cuba. Beyond then, our forecast takes the system into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by Monday afternoon while strengthening. At this time, we think it will make landfall in south central Louisiana as a hurricane late Wednesday. Our forecast confidence remains low that far out. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal. Marco Tropical Storm Marco is located about 115 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico. A general northwest track is expected taking the system just northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula later today while strengthening. By Monday, the storm is expected to track into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. There is some uncertainty as to how much wind shear and dry air the system will encounter. At this time, we think there will be enough shear and dry air to weaken the system as it enters the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Landfall is currently forecast to occur in southeast Texas as a weakening tropical storm on Tuesday. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 34 is located near 15N, 25W. Thunderstorm activity has decreased with this system over the past 24 hours. There continues to be very little model support for development. A general track towards the west is expected over the next several days while remaining weak. The chance of tropical development has been lowered to 20 percent. Tropical Storm Marco Advisory 8 Valid: 03:00 AM CDT Saturday August 22, 2020 Current Location: 19.4N, 85.4W Geographic Reference: 120 miles ESE of Cozumel Movement: North-northwest at 13 mph Max Winds: 45 mph gusting to 60 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 4 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 35 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 70 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Forecast Confidence: Below Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1001 mb Key Points 1. Tropical Storm Marco is strengthening. 2. We are indicating a stronger, farther east storm through 48 hours and then have the system shifting farther west beyond then. 3. The forecast confidence continues to be low, however, there are trends suggesting the confidence could increase soon. Our Forecast Tropical Storm Marco continues to become better organized in the western Caribbean. The system has a relatively compact structure which could allow for a period of quick strengthening over the next 48 hours. It is not out of the question that the system could become a hurricane in the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. As stated in previous updates, a stronger system would tend to track farther east and north. Therefore, the increased expected intensity over the next 48 hours has corresponded to an eastward shift in the track. The center of the storm may pass the northeastern Yucatan to the east if current trends continue. If it doesn't interact with the Yucatan Peninsula too much, then the chance of it becoming a hurricane will increase. By Monday, the storm is expected to track into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. There is some uncertainty as to how much wind shear and dry air the system will encounter. At this time, we think there will be enough shear and dry air to weaken the system as it enters the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Since a weaker system is likely to track farther west, we think Marco's north-northwest track will become more northwest or west-northwest by either Monday or Tuesday. The presence of Tropical Storm Laura to the east and uncertainty regarding the amount of shear and dry air in the northwest Gulf of Mexico continue to keep the forecast confidence relatively low. That being said, there has been a general increase in model consensus regarding the future track. This may be a function of the system's increased organization. We continue to predict a landfall as a tropical storm along the Upper Texas Coast Tuesday morning. The primary concern would be heavy rainfall over portions of southeastern and coastal Texas along with portions of southern Louisiana. Tropical storm conditions are possible near the landfall location. Expected Impacts on Land Cayman Islands: Street flooding is possible. Yucatan: Power outages are possible for northern coastal Quintana Roo. NW Gulf Coast: Possible heavy rains have the potential to cause street flooding at a minimum. Power outages could also occur. Expected Impacts Offshore Squalls could reach the deepwater lease areas off of Texas and western Louisiana by Sunday night or Monday morning. Sunday is likely to be the final day of good flying conditions. Winds of tropical storm force are forecast for the lease blocks off of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Tropical Storm Laura Advisory 11 Valid: 03:00 AM CDT Saturday August 22, 2020 Current Location: 17.5N, 65.0W Geographic Reference: 100 miles southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico Movement: West-northwest at 18 mph Max Winds: 40 mph gusting to 50 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 2 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 115 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Below Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1008 mb Key Points 1. Laura will likely bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. 2. Landfall on the Gulf Coast has once again been adjusted westward to near Morgan City, Louisiana. 3. Both the track and the intensity forecast confidence remain below average. Our Forecast Tropical Storm Laura remains disorganized early this morning. Little change in strength is expected over the next few days as the system continues to quickly track west-northwestward. The center of Laura is now forecast to move over the Dominican Republic later today into tonight and across Cuba late Sunday into early Monday. The proximity to land will likely limit its ability to strengthen until it reaches the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday afternoon. Once in the southeast Gulf of Mexico, we expect Laura to strengthen, possibly to a hurricane, by Tuesday night. There remains considerable uncertainty in Laura's intensity and track across the Gulf. The latest model guidance continues to trend westward across the Gulf. As a result, we have adjusted the landfall point to near Morgan City, Louisiana late Wednesday. It is possible that we will be making additional westward adjustments in the track and adjustments in the predicted intensity over the next few days. Much will depend on how Laura interacts with the Dominican Republic and Cuba this weekend. Once inland, Laura should track steadily northwestward while weakening to a remnant low Thursday night. Expected Impacts on Land Northern Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico: There will be a chance of scattered power outages on Saturday. Some street flooding could also occur. Cuba: There will be a risk of scattered power outages along with street flooding late Sunday into Monday. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: The greatest impacts are expected to be confined to the lease blocks off of Louisiana. However, outer bands of squalls may impact a large part of the Gulf Tuesday into Wednesday. There will be a chance of hurricane force winds Tuesday and Wednesday for the central Gulf.
Marco is nowhere near models expected him to be this morning and also appears to be rapidly strengthening. In other words, throw all the computer models out. This is getting hairy fast. Marco may be a hurricane already. Recon is finding strong flight level winds.
There is a huge shear coming off of Texas and Northern Mexico that could punch Marco in the face. Not super concerned yet on that one
Excellent point. A Houston based meteorologist that posts on another forum expects Marco to be hurricane today but to only be a weak TS or even TD when it makes landfall along the Texas coast. He says the same thing that has allowed it strengthen it quickly will weaken it as it heads north and west.
You joke but it very well could. Here is the latest GFS model below. This would be a spectacular bust for the NHC if this model is correct.
