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2020 Hurricane Season

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by KingCheetah, May 18, 2020.

  1. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    See ya next year

    Rocket River
     
  2. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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  3. Xerobull

    Xerobull Contributing Member

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    Great. Great job jinxing it!
     
    B-Bob, Astrodome and Rocket River like this.
  4. No Worries

    No Worries Contributing Member

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  5. Rocket River

    Rocket River Member

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    LOL!
    I hope not

    Rocket River
     
  6. Xerobull

    Xerobull Contributing Member

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    Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory 8
    Valid: 03:00 AM CDT Monday October 26, 2020


    [​IMG]


    Current Location: 18.5N, 84.0W
    Geographic Reference: 230 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico
    Movement: Northwest at 5 mph
    Max Winds: 65 mph gusting to 80 mph
    Current Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity)
    Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity)
    Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 80 miles
    Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 130 miles
    Organizational Trend: Increasing
    Forecast Confidence: Below Average
    Estimated Central Pressure: 994 mb

    Key Points
    1. Zeta will likely make landfall as a hurricane over the northeast Yucatan Peninsula tonight.
    2. Zeta is predicted to make a final landfall as a strong tropical storm in southeast Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon.

    Our Forecast
    Tropical Storm Zeta has strengthened over the past few hours based on the latest aircraft reconnaissance and satellite data. Additional strengthening is expected today, and Zeta will likely be a hurricane when it makes landfall over the northeast Yucatan Peninsula tonight.

    Some weakening will occur after Zeta moves inland, however a strengthening trend should resume after the system moves back over the warm waters of the southern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. We think Zeta will regain hurricane intensity by Tuesday afternoon over the south-central Gulf. While some weakening is expected on Wednesday as the system approaches Louisiana, the latest model guidance has trended a bit stronger. Our forecast now calls for the landfall intensity to be near 70 mph, which is just below hurricane strength. It's important to note that there is an increasing chance that Zeta will make landfall as a hurricane in southeastern Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon.

    We have once again adjusted the track a little to the west at landfall in southeast Louisiana, based on the latest consensus model guidance. However, given the considerable disagreement in the models, we are still not very confident in this landfall prediction. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, and Zeta should be a tropical depression when it moves over northern Alabama early Thursday morning.

    Expected Impacts Offshore
    Northern Gulf of Mexico:
    Squalls may reach the deepwater areas off the southeast Louisiana coast by noon on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning.

    Expected Impacts Inland
    Northeast Yucatan:
    There is an increasing chance of widespread power outages, as well as some damage. Flooding is also likely.
    Northern Gulf Coast: Squalls may reach the southeast Louisiana coast by early Wednesday. Tropical storm-force winds will likely result in power outages within 100 miles of the track Wednesday. Coastal flooding is also likely.

    ***********************************

    Atlantic Daily Briefing
    Issued:
    04:52 AM CDT Monday October 26, 2020



    [​IMG]

    Active Systems


    Zeta
    Tropical Storm Zeta is located about 200 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico with maximum sustained winds near 70 mph. Zeta will likely continue to strengthen as it tracks northwestward today and should be a hurricane when it makes landfall over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula tonight. Some slight weakening is expected as it moves over land, but restrengthening is likely when it moves back out over the Gulf of Mexico. A final landfall is forecast to occur across southeastern Louisiana on Wednesday afternoon as a strong tropical storm or a hurricane. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information.

    Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
    Disturbance 60 has been identified about halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles near 10N, 42W. The system is currently producing a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. A general track towards the west is expected over the next several days which will take the disturbance into the Caribbean Sea by this weekend. Conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development next week. It is too early to say where the system may eventually track. The chance of development within the next 7 days is 20 percent.

    Epsilon has transitioned into an extratropical low pressure system and we have removed it from our analysis.
     
    TWS1986 likes this.
  7. Xerobull

    Xerobull Contributing Member

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    Line 'em up

    Atlantic Daily Briefing

    Issued: 04:08 AM CDT Wednesday October 28, 2020


    [​IMG]

    Active Systems

    Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon
    Zeta 75 mph Category 1 24.7N 91.7W


    Zeta
    Hurricane Zeta is centered about 375 miles to the south-southwest of New Orleans and moving to the north-northwest at 15 mph. Maximum winds are near 75 mph. Zeta will turn more northward to over the central Gulf later today and accelerate to the northeast across the northern Gulf and make landfall over southeast Louisiana this afternoon with maximum winds near 100 mph. Zeta will accelerate to the northeast across the southern and southeastern United States and produce a threat for strong winds and heavy rainfall later today into Thursday. Storm surge impacts and isolated tornadoes are possible across the northern Gulf coast this afternoon into this evening.

    Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
    Disturbance 60 is located just east of the Lesser Antilles along 60W. It is moving quickly to the west at 25 mph. The system is currently producing a large area of disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. A general track to the west-northwest across the northeastern Caribbean will occur today into Thursday, then across the Greater Antilles into the Bahamas on Friday into Saturday. It is not expected to develop.

    Disturbance 61 has been identified about 950 miles to the east of Trinidad along 47W. It will move to the west-northwest over the next several days and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea by Friday into Saturday. Conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development late this weekend into early next week as this disturbance interacts with the monsoon trough over the western Caribbean. This interaction may cause an area of low pressure to form over the southwestern Caribbean by Monday or Tuesday of next week. The low is forecast to move westward into Central America later next week. It is expected to be a weak tropical system if it were to develop. The chance of development within the next 7 days is estimated near 30 percent.
     
  8. B-Bob

    B-Bob my celli weighs a ton
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    “He hates these cans!” - America pointing at Louisiana.
     
  9. RunninRaven

    RunninRaven Contributing Member

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    It does sort of feel like God opened up a phone book and decided to send all his storms at whatever portion of the world he randomly pointed at.
     
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  10. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    Hurricane Zika now a Cat 2 and swarming with mosquitoes.
     
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  11. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    [​IMG]

    This thing really exploded before landfall Cat 2/3.
     
  12. B-Bob

    B-Bob my celli weighs a ton
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    Just so others can enjoy one of the true wonders of cinema, and the source of our joke:

     
  13. Xenon

    Xenon Contributing Member
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    It did. There are calling it baroclinic enhancement which you normally see in the north atlantic as hurricanes transition to extra tropical. Crazy footage of storm surge on the weather channel now in biloxi. There is going to be a long swath of power outages and damage hundreds of miles inland with this one. This is highly unusual.
     
  14. bobrek

    bobrek Person, woman, man, camera, TV
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    I think I heard Cantore say it had something to do with the cold front in Texas.
     
  15. Xerobull

    Xerobull Contributing Member

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    Atlantic Daily Briefing
    Issued: 04:24 AM CDT Thursday October 29, 2020


    [​IMG]

    Active Systems

    Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon
    Zeta 65 mph Tropical Storm 33.6N 86.5W


    Zeta
    Tropical Storm Zeta is accelerating to the northeast across northeastern Alabama and northern Georgia this morning. It is moving to the northeast at 35 mph. Maximum winds are near 65 mph. Zeta will accelerate across the southeastern United States and Mid-Atlantic states today and produce gusty winds along with a chance of locally heavy rainfall. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible today across the southeastern U.S.

    Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
    Disturbance 60 is located over the eastern Caribbean and Puerto Rico along 68W. It is moving quickly to the west-northwest at 22 mph. Thunderstorm activity remains disorganized with the tropical wave. It will track to the west-northwest across the Greater Antilles into the Bahamas today into Friday. It is not expected to develop.

    Disturbance 61 is located 435 miles to the east of Trinidad along 54W. It will move to the west-northwest over the next several days and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea by Friday into Saturday. Conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development late this weekend into early next week as this disturbance interacts with the monsoon trough over the western Caribbean. This interaction may cause an area of low pressure to form over the southwestern Caribbean by Monday or Tuesday of next week. The low is forecast to move westward into Nicaragua by Wednesday. It is expected to be a weak tropical system if it were to develop. The chance of development within the next 7 days is estimated near 40 percent.
     
    Joshfast likes this.
  16. Dream Sequence

    Dream Sequence Contributing Member

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    Wow, no posts about storm #29? Correction, I mean 20 f***in 9!
     
    KingCheetah likes this.
  17. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    Wow another hurricane brewing at least it's not going to hit Louisiana.
     
  18. heypartner

    heypartner Contributing Member

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    ETA's ETA is Tuesday?
     
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  19. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    On the other side of the world.

    [​IMG]
     
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  20. txtony

    txtony Member

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    200mph within 5 years
     

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