Gonzalo As of the 4 AM AST advisory, Gonzalo was located about 160 miles east of Trinidad. It is moving to the west near 18 mph. This motion will take Gonzalo through the southern Windward Islands this afternoon. Winds are 40 mph. Little change in intensity is expected before moving through the Windward Islands. The storm should then dissipate in the southeast Caribbean. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information. Hanna As of the 3 AM CDT advisory, Hanna was located about 110 miles ESE of Corpus Christi, Texas. It is moving to the west near 10 mph. Our forecast is for Hanna to move inland near the Baffin Bay late this afternoon. Winds are 70 mph. Hanna is expected to make landfall as a hurricane with 90 mph winds. In addition to wind and tidal surge, flooding rains are expected for South Texas and northeast Mexico. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 25 is a weak area of low pressure centered about 11.6N, 26.2W, or about 2200 miles east of Barbados. The disturbance is moving to the west at 18 mph. A fairly rapid west to west-northwest motion is expected over the next several days. This will take the system toward the Leeward or northern Windward Islands on Wednesday or Thursday. The disturbance is showing signs of organization. Environmental conditions should be somewhat favorable for development over the next few days. Thus, the system is likely to be a tropical storm as it approaches the islands. The chance of tropical development is 70 percent.
Active Systems Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon Hanna 65 mph Tropical Storm 26.4N 98.8W Hanna Hanna has weakened to a tropical storm over the Rio Grande Valley. At 3 AM CDT, Hanna was located near Rio Grande City, TX. It is moving to the west-southwest near 8 mph. On this track, Hanna is expected to move into Mexico shortly. Winds were 65 mph at 3 AM. However, Hanna is starting to weaken quickly. It is expected to weaken to a depression by this afternoon as it passes near Monterrey, Mexico. The greatest threat is flooding rainfall. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 25 is located near 11N, 35W, or about 1650 miles east of Barbados. The system is moving to the west near 20 mph. This is expected to take the system into the northern Windward or the Leeward Islands late Wednesday or on Thursday. While the system remains somewhat disorganized, there does appear to be a broad low level circulation present with this disturbance. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development. In additional, all models forecast development. The most likely scenario is that the system will become a moderate to strong tropical storm by the time it reaches the Lesser Antilles. There is a 95 percent chance of tropical development.
Active Systems Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon 25 35 mph Tropical Disturbance 12.8N 50.8W 25 As of the 4 AM AST advisory, Disturbance 25 was located about 580 miles east of Barbados. It is moving to the west-northwest near 25 mph. This motion should continue for the next 2 to 3 days. This motion will take the system toward the Leeward Islands Wednesday morning. Thereafter, the system is likely to move toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Even though the system is still poorly organized, conditions are forecast to become marginally favorable and we could see it strengthen to a tropical depression or perhaps even a weak tropical storm on Wednesday into Thursday. Thereafter, it is forecast to weaken as it interacts with the eastern Dominican Republic late Thursday into Friday. The chance of tropical development is at 75 percent. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 26 is located along 30W, or about 400 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands. It is moving to the west near 15-20 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next several days. It is about 5 to 6 days away from reaching the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for development as the system moves across the Atlantic. The chance of tropical development remains at 10 percent.
Tracking to go right up the urethra. Active Systems Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon Isaias 50 mph Tropical Storm 17.1N 68.3W Isaias Tropical Storm Isaias is approaching the Dominican Republic this morning. Isaias will move across Hispaniola later today before it emerges to the north of the island this afternoon. There remains some uncertainty on the track due to the possible interaction of Isaias with mountainous terrain and what condition it may be in afterward. It is also possible the center may reform as this is a broad system. Regardless, it will produce heavy rainfall and tropical storm force winds across the northeastern Caribbean today and across the Bahamas tomorrow into Saturday. Afterward, some models indicate that the center of Isaias may miss the Southeast U.S. coast to the east and clip the Outer Banks early next week, while others indicate the system moving across South Florida and emerging off the west coast of Florida into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. However, most models are trending eastward with the track and we think it could briefly move over the south Florida coast late Saturday, emerge back over the Atlantic Sunday, then move into the Carolinas afterward as a tropical storm by Tuesday. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 26 is located along 43W. It is moving to the west near 15 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere has decreased thunderstorm activity with the disturbance over the past 24 hours. Environmental conditions are not expected to be favorable for development as the system moves across the Atlantic. The chance of tropical development remains at 10 percent. Disturbance 27 has been identified near 12N, 22W or about 200 miles to the south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. It is moving to the west at 10-15 mph. The disturbance appears to be well organized with a very good rotation and may even appear to be a tropical depression on the latest satellite imagery. There is a 30 percent chance of tropical development over the next two days before environmental conditions become unfavorable.
Active Systems Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon Isaias 80 mph Category 1 21.0N 73.1W Isaias Hurricane Isaias will move northwestward across the Bahamas today and produce tropical storm to hurricane force winds and heavy rainfall across the Bahamas today into Saturday. Afterward, Isaias will turn northward and pass to the east of Florida and Georgia on Sunday, then move into the Outer Banks as a hurricane on Monday afternoon and evening. Isaias could make another landfall near Cape Cod on Tuesday, possibly as a hurricane. Then, the system will transition into an extratropical cyclone and accelerate across the Canadian Maritimes late Tuesday into Wednesday. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 26 is located along 50W. It is moving to the west -northwest near 20 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Environmental conditions may become marginally favorable for the system to develop to the north of the Caribbean early next week. However, it will be a short-lived system if it does develop in the western North Atlantic. The chance of tropical development has increased to 20 percent. Disturbance 27 is centered near 14.2N, 21.5W or about 120 miles to the southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. It is moving to the north at 10-15 mph. The disturbance remains well organized and could briefly develop into a tropical depression over the next 24 hours before environmental conditions become hostile for tropical development. There is a 40 percent chance of tropical development over the next day or two.
My flood insurance lapsed and I didn't renew in time. Insurance lady was supposed to call me to renew over the phone, but she apparently left the company. So no one called and it wasn't at the top of mind since I was expecting them to call me. So let's makes it to Aug 27 before it gets too bad, please.
This will be my last posting of data until we get some sort of threat to the Houston area again. Active Systems Name Max Wind Classification Lat Lon Isaias 85 mph Category 1 23.8N 77.0W Tropical Depression Ten 35 mph Tropical Depression 17.5N 21.5W Isaias Hurricane Isaias will move northwestward across the Bahamas today bringing tropical storm to hurricane force winds and heavy rainfall to the islands. Isaias is forecast to turn northward and pass just east of Florida tonight into tomorrow, and then turn northeastward likely moving across the Outer Banks as a strong tropical storm early Tuesday morning. Isaias could make another landfall near Cape Cod early Wednesday morning as a weakening tropical storm. The system should then transition into an extratropical cyclone and accelerate across the Canadian Maritimes late Wednesday into Thursday. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information on Isaias. Tropical Depression Ten Tropical Depression Ten is beginning to weaken across the far eastern Tropical Atlantic. The system will likely weaken to a remnant low later today as it passes north of the Cabo Verde islands. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information on Tropical Depression Ten. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 26 is located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles near 16N, 52W. The system is forecast to track northwestward over the next several days likely passing well north of the Caribbean. Environmental conditions could become more favorable for the disturbance to develop early next week. The chance of tropical development has increased to 40 percent.
. Thanks for posting the data, it’s always nice to get other services forecasts! Hopefully you won’t have to post anymore this year lol..
At least get that science hottie chick to explain things to me which of course will go completely over my head but all good
Current Location: 12.4N, 46.3W Geographic Reference: 890 Miles East of Barbados Movement: West-northwest at 21 mph Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 85 miles Organizational Trend: Slowly Becoming Better-Organized Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1006 mb Key Points 1. Tropical storm-force wind, at least in gusts, is likely for the islands of the northeast Caribbean Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. 2. Forecast uncertainty increases considerably beyond Saturday. Our Forecast We have initiated advisories on Disturbance 33 because there is a very good chance that it will develop into a tropical storm over the next 24-48 hours prior to reaching the northeast Caribbean Sea Friday evening. Satellite imagery this afternoon indicates that the disturbance may have developed a low-level circulation, meaning it is close to being upgraded to a depression by the National Hurricane Center. The forecast for the next 2-3 days is fairly straightforward. A general west-northwest track would take it near or over the islands of the northeast Caribbean Friday night and Saturday, most likely as a tropical storm. We cannot tell if the center will track over the islands or north of the islands. A track north of the islands would result in significantly lower wind impacts across the islands, though passing squalls would still produce tropical storm-force wind gusts. Once the center passes the northeast Caribbean on Saturday, uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast increases considerably. Model consensus indicates a track very near or over the Greater Antilles (Dominican Republic and Cuba) on Sunday and Monday. Such a track would result in a weak system reaching the southeast Gulf of Mexico early next week. Our forecast is a little to the north of the current consensus model, as new data indicate that the center may track just off the coasts of the Dominican Republic and Cuba. Once in the Gulf, conditions there should allow for some reorganization and strengthening prior to landfall, possibly between Louisiana and the eastern Florida Panhandle next Wednesday. As for the long-range track and intensity, much will depend on if, when, and how much strengthening occurs over the next 2-3 days. A stronger system earlier on would mean a track farther north of the Dominican Republic and Cuba, allowing for at least some strengthening before reaching the Florida Straits on Monday. There is considerable uncertainty as to how much interaction with land will impact this potential storm on Sunday and Monday. Our forecast keeps the system at minimal tropical storm strength due to land interaction, but it could weaken to a depression over the Dominican Republic and/or Cuba. Concerning the expected intensity, our forecast is for a weak tropical storm (40 mph to 45 mph) as it passes the northeast Caribbean and a peak intensity of 65 mph by the time it nears the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday. However, there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. It is possible that it never reorganizes in the Gulf, making landfall as a tropical wave. It is also possible that it reaches hurricane strength prior to landfall. We will not be more confident in the intensity in the Gulf until we see how much the circulation is disrupted by land interaction over the weekend. Expected Impacts on Land Northern Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico: Squalls reaching the northern Lesser Antilles on Friday afternoon and Puerto Rico early Saturday morning. Wind gusts to tropical storm strength will likely produce power outages. Heavy rain may cause flooding and travel issues.
Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:36 AM CDT Thursday August 20, 2020 Tropical Depression Thirteen Tropical Depression Thirteen is located 890 miles east-southeast of Guadeloupe and moving to the west-northwest at 23 mph. Maximum winds are near 35 mph. Thirteen will likely pass just north of the northeastern Caribbean as a tropical storm late Friday into Saturday and pass north of the Greater Antilles on Sunday into early Monday. The system could enter the eastern Gulf of Mexico next week and possibly make landfall on the Florida Panhandle by Wednesday. However, there remains uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast. Please see the latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Tropical Disturbance 31 has become better organized as thunderstorm activity has increased with the disturbance. It is located to the south of Jamaica over the west-central Caribbean along 78W. It is moving westward at 17 mph. The disturbance is likely to develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm by Friday over the northwestern Caribbean before moving across the Yucatan Peninsula Saturday. By late Sunday into early Monday, it will track across the Bay of Campeche and southwestern Gulf of Mexico. It could move into northeast Mexico or south Texas by Tuesday or Wednesday. Development chances have increased to near 80 percent. Tropical Disturbance 34 is located over western Africa along 16W. This disturbance is forecast to emerge off the coast of Africa on Friday. The system could develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm Saturday through early next week over the tropical Atlantic. Conditions may become less favorable for the system to survive for the middle of next week as it either approaches the eastern Caribbean or passes north of the Caribbean. There is a 40 percent chance of tropical development over the next several day Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory 4 Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Thursday August 20, 2020 Current Location: 15.8N, 51.6W Geographic Reference: 635 miles East of Guadeloupe Movement: West-northwest at 23 mph Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 8 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 5 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 90 miles Organizational Trend: Slowly Becoming Better Organized Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1007 mb Key Points 1. Tropical storm-force wind, at least in gusts, is possible for the islands of the northeast Caribbean Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. 2. The depression could be a strong tropical storm as it nears South Florida. 3. Forecast uncertainty, especially with the intensity forecast, remains very high. Our Forecast Tropical Depression Thirteen has moved a little north of our previous forecast track based upon morning visible satellite imagery. The short term forecast has been adjusted a little farther to the north as a result. There remains a risk of tropical storm force winds, at least in gusts, for the northern Leeward Islands, as well as the Virgin Islands. Thereafter, the model guidance has shifted a little to the north and east of the previous forecast track. Our forecast was adjusted a little in this direction, though we are south and west of the model consensus. The forecast is for the system to remain north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. It is forecast to move through the Bahamas on Sunday and early Monday. It then should approach South Florida late Monday. Thereafter, it is forecast to move into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and then toward the Florida Panhandle. One complicating factor in the longer term forecast will be the possible presence of Disturbance 31 in the Gulf. It is possible that Disturbance 31 could cause the track to deviate to the north and east of our forecast track. Squalls around the depression have become a little better organized. We expect that the depression will become a tropical storm later today. However, wind shear is likely to increase somewhat tomorrow. As a result, no significant change in intensity is indicated from this evening through Saturday morning. Thereafter, environmental conditions will become more favorable for intensification. Thus, we indicate gradual intensification to begin then. The intensity forecast is very uncertain as a deviation to the south of the track forecast would take the system near or over Hispaniola and Cuba, which would cause significant weakening. If the system remains north of Hispaniola as forecast, the system should intensify. Given the uncertainty, we have only slightly increased the forecast intensity. Winds are forecast to be 65 mph when it makes its closest approach to Florida. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, some slight additional intensification is likely. The forecast is now for the system to become a minimal hurricane once in the Gulf. Expected Impacts on Land Northern Lesser Antilles to Puerto Rico: There will be a chance of scattered power outages. Some street flooding could also occur. Hispaniola, Bahamas, and Cuba: Power outages are likely. Street flooding could also occur. South Florida: There will be a risk of scattered to widespread power outages along with street flooding.
Yikes, just got another tropical depression, tracking towards Corpus Christi: Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory 1 Valid: 10:00 AM CDT Thursday August 20, 2020 Current Location: 15.1N, 79.5W Geographic Reference: 250 miles east of the Nicaragua / Honduras Border Movement: West-northwest at 17 mph Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 5 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 3 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 90 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Forecast Confidence: Below Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1007 mb Key Points 1. Disturbance 31 is now Tropical Depression Fourteen. 2. The depression is forecast to make landfall over the Yucatan late Saturday as a strong tropical storm. 3. There is a high degree of uncertainty once the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico. Our Forecast Disturbance 31 has formed a closed surface circulation. Therefore, it is now a tropical depression. The depression is moving quickly to the west-northwest. All indications are that there will be a significant reduction in forward speed, along with a turn more to the northwest before it moves over Honduras. This will take the system toward the Yucatan late Saturday. By Sunday morning, we expect the depression to move into the Gulf of Mexico. Once in the Gulf, the interaction with what is now Tropical Depression Thirteen, which is forecast to move into the eastern Gulf late Monday, makes the track forecast rather uncertain. It is likely that Thirteen will cause Fourteen to move toward the western Gulf. Our track forecast is south and west of the model consensus as a result. Landfall could occur over the Texas Coast on Tuesday or Wednesday. Environmental conditions are favorable for further development, especially once the system begins to slow its forward speed after today. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight. It is then expected to become a strong tropical storm by the time it impacts the Yucatan. Once in the Gulf, the intensity forecast is also uncertain due to Thirteen. Therefore, the forecast is for little change until it moves over the Texas Coast. Expected Impacts on Land Yucatan: Power outages are likely. Widespread street flooding is also likely. Texas Coast: Heavy rains have the potential to cause street flooding at a minimum. Power outages could also occur. Expected Impacts Offshore Squalls could reach the deepwater lease areas off of Texas and western Louisiana by Sunday night or Monday morning. Sunday may be the final day of good flying conditions. Winds of tropical storm force are forecast for the Texas lease blocks.
