While I appreciate how far we’ve come at forecasting these storms, and was vastly impressed with the Laura tracking... is there any way to limit the updates to those storms that have a chance to turn into something AND invade the gulf? getting PTSD every time I see this thread bumped.
While this is largely a board consisting of people that would be most affected if a hurricane enters the gulf, there are others that can be affected if a hurricane or storm wanders over to the east coast. Fortunately, unless any members are in Bermuda, these two latest storms should be inconsequential.
I get updates daily and don't post unless there's something headed into the Gulf or forecast to hit us. So...I already do censor it I'm a 'I'd rather know' kind of person.
Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:24 AM CDT Friday September 11, 2020 Tropical Storm Paulette is located 1012 miles to the southeast of Bermuda and is moving to the northwest at 10 mph. Maximum winds are near 65 mph. Paulette will track to the northwest through Monday night before turning in a northeasterly direction thereafter. The system looks to move near Bermuda as a hurricane from Monday night into Tuesday morning. Please see the latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information. Rene Tropical Storm Rene is located 922 miles to the west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving to the west-northwest at 10 mph. Maximum winds are near 50 mph. Rene is expected to turn to the northwest over the next couple of days and then continue to the northwest thereafter. Strengthening is forecast to take place over the next 3 days with the system approaching hurricane strength. Weakening then takes place thereafter as the system encounters less favorable environmental conditions. It is expected to become a remnant low well to the east-southeast of Bermuda by next Thursday night. It poses no threat to any land areas. Please see the latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 38 is a trough of low pressure that is moving across the northeastern Gulf. It is moving to the west at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions are unfavorable for tropical development as it moves into and across the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight before moving into the northwestern Gulf on Saturday. It then turns to the southwest toward and into the west-central Gulf through Monday. There is now a 10 percent chance of tropical development. Disturbance 44 is now located across the Bahamas. This disturbance is moving to the west at 15 mph. It is very disorganized and the environmental conditions are currently only marginally favorable at best for development. The trough looks to move into Florida from today into tonight and then into the eastern Gulf on Saturday before turning to the northwest into the northeastern Gulf from Sunday into Monday. Once the disturbance gets into the eastern Gulf, the environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable. Therefore, the chance of tropical development is now 40 percent. Disturbance 43 is centered near 12.1N 21.5W. The disturbance is moving to the west at 20 mph. Disturbance 43 is across the far eastern part of the tropical Atlantic and is expected to move by to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands on today. Afterward, it will track in a west to west-northwesterly direction across the tropical Atlantic. There are indications from our model guidance that this disturbance could impact the northeastern Caribbean about a week from now. There is a near 100 percent chance of development.
Carla, Alicia, Allison, Ike, Harvey... We don't get storms this late. Rita was the only one & it missed.
Disturbance 44 Advisory 1 Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Friday September 11, 2020 Current Location: 25N, 78.5W Geographic Reference: Near northern Andros Island Movement: Northwest at 10 mph Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 35 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 75 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1010 mb Chance of Development: 80 percent Key Points 1. Disturbance 44 has become better organized to the east of Florida. 2. The greatest threat to Florida is heavy rainfall. 3. The disturbance is forecast to become a moderate tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico 4. The greatest threat to the Gulf Coast is flooding rainfall. Our Forecast Disturbance 44 has become better organized today over the western Bahamas. The disturbance could become a tropical depression before moving over the Florida Peninsula during the overnight hours. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected for much of the Florida Peninsula. The disturbance is expected to move into the northeast Gulf of Mexico tomorrow night or Sunday morning. A slow motion to the west-northwest is expected across the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Our forecast track takes the system over the western Florida Panhandle and the Alabama Coast Monday afternoon. However, anywhere from the mouth of the Mississippi River through around Panama City Florida could be the location of landfall. There are no indications that the system will move toward western Louisiana or Texas. Once in the Gulf of Mexico, environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for development. We now expect that the system will become a tropical storm. Our forecast is for the system to peak with winds of 50 mph as it nears the Gulf Coast. We do not expect that the system will become a hurricane. Expected Impacts On Land South Florida: Street flooding due to heavy rainfall could result in travel delays. Gulf Coast: Scattered power outages could occur. Minor coastal flooding is likely. Heavy rainfall has the potential to cause widespread street flooding. Expected Impacts Offshore The first squalls could impact the lease blocks off of the Louisiana Coast by early Sunday afternoon. Tomorrow appears to be the final full day of good flying conditions. Winds of tropical storm force could occur for the lease blocks off of the Florida Coast by Sunday afternoon. These will spread westward to the lease blocks off of the Alabama and Mississippi Coast on Monday.
So.....can I return this generator I bought yet (still unopened) and get a discounted one post hurricane season? Got another week and a half to get a refund.
This is the latest I have from 2pm. No concern that it's going to affect us at all. Tropical Storm Sally Advisory 9 Valid: 03:00 PM CDT Sunday September 13, 2020 Because this storm is no longer a potential threat to your company's area of concern, this is the final advisory that you will receive via email. Current Location: 27.8N, 85.9W Geographic Reference: 215 miles ESE of the Mouth of the Mississippi River Movement: West-northwest at 10 mph Max Winds: 50 mph gusting to 65 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 10 out of a possible 50 points (3 size, 7 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 80 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 105 miles Organizational Trend: Steady Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 998 mb Key Points 1. Sally is expected to intensify gradually today, and then more rapidly tomorrow. 2. Landfall is forecast to occur over southeast Louisiana Tuesday morning with 90 mph winds. 3. Flooding from heavy rainfall remains the primary impact to the Gulf Coast. Our Forecast Sally remains a lopsided tropical storm this afternoon with m ost of the heavy rain bands to the east and southeast of the center. However, new rain bands are beginning to form in the northeast quadrant, which may indicate that the tropical storm may begin to strengthen over the next several hours. However, it will be a gradual strengthening in the short term as wind shear continues to restrict thunderstorm activity across the western half of the tropical storm. Sally will continue to track to the west-northwest through Monday night towards southeast Louisiana. We have adjusted our forecast track back to the east slightly in this advisory as most of our latest model guidance is shifting back to the east with the track. Our latest track remains near most of the model guidance this afternoon. Landfall is forecast to occur late Monday night near the mouth of the Mississippi River around Boothville. Then, it is forecast to track across New Orleans during the day on Tuesday. After landfall, a northerly and then northeasterly motion is expected. Sally is expected to track across southern Mississippi and into western Alabama on Wednesday into Thursday and weaken. Sally should have a short period of rapid intensification on Monday if the wind shear currently occurring over the system decreases as forecast. However, if this shear does not abate, then Sally will not have enough time to quickly intensify up to 90 mph as indicated in our current advisory. Once the system moves north of Lake Pontchartrain Tuesday night, it should weaken rapidly. Dissipation is expected over Alabama. When Sally is making landfall, it is expected to be moving more slowly during that time. This will result in prolonged winds and tidal surges. In addition, it will result in prolonged heavy rainfall for southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi on Monday into Tuesday. More than a foot of rain is expected to fall in some locations. Expected Impacts On Land South Florida: Street flooding due to heavy rainfall could result in travel delays. Gulf Coast: Widespread power outages are likely. There is an increasing risk of wind and tidal surge damage. Widespread flooding due to the heavy rainfall is also expected. Expected Impacts Offshore The first squalls could impact the lease blocks off of the Louisiana Coast by late tonight into early Monday morning. Winds of tropical storm force could occur for the lease blocks off of the Florida Coast by tonight. These will spread westward to the lease blocks off of the Alabama, Mississippi, and southeast Louisiana Coast late tonight into Monday morning.
There is only one name left on the 2020 Atlantic hurricane list. So what's next? By Allison Chinchar and Haley Brink, CNN Meteorologists \ (CNN)With the naming of Tropical Storm Vicky on Monday morning, this leaves only one name on the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season list -- Wilfred. So what will the next storm be named, after Wilfred? For what is likely to be only the second time in recorded history, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will have to use the Greek alphabet for additional storm names. In 2005, the NHC had to use six letters off the Greek alphabet to account for the record number of storms. Four of those systems reached tropical storm strength (Alpha, Gamma, Delta, and Zeta), while the two other storms reached hurricane strength (Beta and Epsilon). The NHC does not use the letters Q, U, X, Y, and Z because there aren't enough names to fill those letters. But will there be more storms? The 2005 season went into the Greek alphabet. What makes forecasters think 2020 will follow suit? Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30. Statistically speaking, September 10 is the peak of the season. During an average season, we see about three named storms in September, two storms in October and one in November. Which means that if this were a "normal" hurricane season, we would still likely have a few more storms possible through the end of November. But this year is not a "normal" season. It has been forecast for months to be very active. So far this season, we have seen 20 named storms. The average for an entire season is 12. Back in August, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) updated the hurricane season forecast and called for 19 to 25 named storms. Prior to this, the agency had never forecast up to 25 storms in a season. Every named storm so far this season, except for three (Arthur, Bertha, and Dolly), set their own personal record for earliest named storm in recorded history. 2020 Atlantic hurricane season names These are the names of tropical storms or hurricanes that may form in the Atlantic Ocean in 2020. Names are alphabetical, and alternate between male and female. Needing the entire list in a season is rare. Arthur Bertha Cristobal Dolly Edouard Fay Gonzalo Hanna Isaias Josephine Kyle Laura Marco Nana Omar Paulette Rene Sally Teddy Vicky Wilfred
