Keep your political bullshit to the cesspool they call the D&D. It takes some knowledge and science to predict the weather. Yes, it’s a prediction. Nobody ever says it will rain at your house at 2:30PM on X day.
Pretty damn near the NHC track, albeit 14 hours earlier! Curious to see what it is after HH data is in the model suite.
I get a lot more info than I post. If the appetite is here, I can post it when I get the chance. Current Location: 26.0N, 89.0W Geographic Reference: 525 miles ESE of Corpus Christi, Texas Movement: West-northwest at 8 mph Max Winds: 35 mph gusting to 45 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 1 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 1 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 65 miles Organizational Trend: Slowly Becoming Better Organized Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1008 mb Key Points 1. We have made a slight southward shift in our track forecast with this advisory. 2. Landfall is forecast to occur along the middle Texas coast early Saturday morning as a tropical storm. 3. Flooding rainfall will be the main threat from this system across parts of eastern and central Texas and southern Louisiana. Our Forecast Tropical Depression Eight is slowly becoming better organized early this morning with a cluster of showers and thunderstorms developing near the center. Continued slow strengthening is expected over the next few days, and we think the system will become a tropical storm by tomorrow. Landfall is forecast to occur along the middle Texas coast early Saturday morning with winds near 45 mph. The system will likely slow down a bit as it pushes inland across south Texas. This slowing forward speed increases the risk of heavy rainfall along the Texas coast and inland across south Texas this weekend. Expected Impacts Onshore Coastal Louisiana: Outer bands of squalls will likely reach the coastal parishes, causing periods of heavy rain and street flooding on Thursday and Friday. Texas Coast inland to Hill Country: Heavy rains could lead to street flooding. Travel delays are likely. Scattered power outages could also occur along the immediate coast with wind gusts of 40-50 mph. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: Scattered heavy thunderstorms will move into the deepwater areas offshore southeast Louisiana this morning, but squalls will not become widespread across the northwest Gulf until this afternoon, reaching the Texas coast tomorrow morning. Discussion: Tropical Depression Eight is forecast to make landfall along the middle Texas coast as a tropical storm early Saturday morning. The main concern will be heavy rainfall, although gusty winds are also expected. Significant wind is not currently expected. General Rainfall Amounts: Rainfall totals of 3-6 inches with locally heavier totals as high as 8 inches are possible Friday through Sunday. Localized areas of flooding resulting in travel delays are possible. Storm Surge: No significant tidal surge is forecast. Note: As we predict the maximum sustained wind (and gusts) associated with a tropical cyclone, our site forecast below represents the maximum likely observed winds in any particular hour during the passage of the tropical cyclone. On average, the observed winds at your location(s) will be lower than the sustained wind and gusts contained in the forecast. July 24-26 - Tropical Depression Eight - Mississippi / Louisiana / Texas Predictions for Galveston, TX Amount: 4 to 6 isolated 8 inches of rain Threat: Slight Chance of Excessive Rainfall Timing: midnight Jul 24 to midnight Jul 27, 2020 CDT iscussion: Forecast Confidence Moderate Changes From Previous Forecast Shifted the risk areas slightly southward. Our Forecast Tropical Depression Eight will move into the northwestern Gulf later today into tomorrow. It is forecast to move into Texas early Saturday morning as a tropical storm. The main concern will be heavy rainfall, although gusty winds are also expected, mainly closer to the coast. Rainfall amounts of up to 2 to 4 inches are possible from coastal Mississippi westward to the lower Texas coast. Higher totals of up to 4 to 6 inches will be possible along the middle/upper Texas coast as well as along the southwestern Louisiana coast. We have shifted the risk areas slightly southward based on our latest advisory. Main Impacts Rainfall Impacts: Locally heavy rainfall may result in some brief street flooding and travel delays across the region. Larger streams and rivers could see prolonged high water and could reach flood stage, especially in the moderate risk area. Wind Impacts: Isolated to scattered power outages cannot be ruled out, especially in areas closer to the coast or in heavier squalls. Surge Impacts: Minor coastal flooding may occur late this week into the weekend.
Current Location: 26.2N, 90.6W Geographic Reference: 430 miles ESE of Corpus Christi, Texas Movement: West-northwest at 9 mph Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 65 miles Organizational Trend: Slowly Becoming Better Organized Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1008 mb Key Points 1. We have made a slight northward shift in our track forecast with this advisory. 2. Landfall is forecast to occur along the middle Texas coast early Saturday morning as a 50 mph tropical storm. 3. Flooding rainfall will be the main threat from this system across parts of eastern and central Texas and southern Louisiana. Our Forecast Morning visible satellite imagery, along with a number of surface observations across the central Gulf, indicate that Tropical Depression Eight is still rather disorganized. The center appears to be located just to the west of its heavier squalls, which is a sign that wind shear is still impacting the system. We have nudged the point of landfall just a little northward in this advisory. In addition, we are indicating that the storm will slow its forward speed as it approaches the Texas coast on Saturday. Landfall may be delayed until around mid morning Saturday. This may give the storm a little more time to strengthen prior to landfall. We are predicting that it will have max sustained winds of 50 mph when it reaches the Texas coast, though there is much more uncertainty in its intensity at landfall than in the track. This is predicted to be a rather small tropical storm at landfall. Tropical storm force winds should be confined to the middle Texas coast, staying southwest of the Freeport area and north of the Corpus Christi area. Once the center moves inland, its forward speed will likely decrease even more. This could result in very heavy rainfall for the middle Texas coast and inland across south-central Texas as the storm weakens to a remnant low pressure area. Expected Impacts Onshore Coastal Louisiana: Outer bands of squalls will likely reach the coastal parishes today and on Friday, causing periods of heavy rain and street flooding. Texas Coast inland to Hill Country: Heavy rains could lead to street flooding. Travel delays are likely. Scattered power outages could also occur along the immediate coast with wind gusts of 50-60 mph. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: Scattered heavy thunderstorms have moved into the deepwater areas offshore southeast Louisiana this morning, but squalls will not become widespread across the northwest Gulf until this afternoon, reaching the Texas coast during the day on Friday. Atlantic Daily Briefing Issued: 04:21 AM CDT Thursday July 23, 2020 Tropical Storm Gonzalo is strengthening about 950 miles east of Trinidad. It will likely become a hurricane later today as it tracks just north of due west. As Gonzalo approaches the Caribbean, increasing wind shear should cause some weakening. However, it is still expected to be a strong tropical storm as it tracks through the southern Windward Islands this weekend. Once in the Caribbean, wind shear should increase further resulting in additional weakening, and eventually dissipation by the middle part of next week. However our forecast confidence that far out remains quite low. Please see our latest advisory on your StormGeo web portal for more information. Tropical Depression Eight Tropical Depression Eight is located over the central Gulf of Mexico about 525 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi, Texas. Slow strengthening is expected over the next few days, and it will likely become a tropical storm tomorrow. Landfall is forecast to occur along the middle Texas coast early Saturday morning. The main concern will be heavy rainfall and flash flooding across southern Louisiana and eastern and south Texas. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch A disturbance will likely move off the coast of western Africa by tomorrow. This system may develop over the tropical Atlantic by the early to middle part of next week as it tracks westward. Some of our model guidance suggests that it could become a tropical depression or tropical storm before affecting the Lesser Antilles during the second half of next week. However, our forecast confidence that far out remains quite low. We estimate the chance of development at 20 percent over the next week.
Hannah has really got together this afternoon/evening. HMON running and the Global’s will be interesting tonight. NHC shifted track further south. The more organized Hannah is, the less we get in Houston rain wise. It will be an oven though; That’s guaranteed.
Current Location: 27.3N, 94.0W Geographic Reference: 215 Miles East of Corpus Christi, Texas Movement: West at 12 mph Max Winds: 50 mph gusting to 70 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 6 out of a possible 50 points (2 size, 4 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 60 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 70 miles Organizational Trend: Slowly Strengthening Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 1001 mb Key Points 1. Flooding rainfall will be a significant threat across South Texas this weekend. 2. Hanna's wind field will be rather small, limiting the wind impact along the lower Texas coast. Our Forecast The reconnaissance plane finished its investigation a few hours ago. The plane found some evidence of a small area of winds as high as 50 mph to the east-southeast of the center. No tropical storm-force winds were found in the western half of the storm. Given Hanna's appearance on satellite, we think that it will gradually strengthen as it approaches the Texas coast tonight and tomorrow. We are still predicting that Hanna may have a small area of 70 mph winds at landfall. It is even possible that winds could reach hurricane strength over a very small region northeast and southeast of the center at landfall. Our forecast takes the center inland south of Corpus Christi around 2pm tomorrow. Once inland, Hanna is predicted to track to the west and west-southwest while steadily weakening. Tropical storm-force winds may only extend about 60 miles north of the center at landfall, which would mean that Corpus Christi would be grazed by the tropical storm winds but would be missed by the 58+ mph sustained winds. Of course, any wobble northward prior to landfall could significantly increase the winds in the Corpus Christi area. Tropical storm-force winds should pass north of the Brownsville area. The threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be increasing across much of south Texas as the storm pushes farther inland this weekend. Rainfall totals will likely reach up to 8-10 inches along the track at landfall, with 2-4 inch rainfall totals possibly extending all the way inland to San Antonio and southward into northern Mexico. Expected Impacts Onshore Coastal Louisiana: Outer bands of squalls will continue to impact the south Louisiana coastal parishes today, resulting in some minor street flooding and minor travel issues. South Texas: Heavy rains could lead to significant flooding. Travel delays are likely. Widespread power outages could also occur near the track due to wind gusts of 75 mph to 85 mph. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: Widespread heavy squalls will likely continue to impact the deepwater areas offshore Louisiana through early Saturday, and the waters offshore Texas today through Saturday. Conditions will be improving significantly offshore on Sunday. Discussion: Tropical Storm Hanna is forecast to make landfall along the lower Texas coast as a strong tropical storm early afternoon on Saturday. Max winds at landfall are predicted to be 70 mph with gusts to 85 mph, though it is possible that winds could be stronger. Such wind will cause widespread power outages near where the center crosses the coast. In addition, the storm's predicted slow movement at landfall means that coastal counties in its path could see rainfall of 8-10 inches over the weekend. The heavy rain will spread inland across south Texas on Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Significant wind is not currently expected. General Rainfall Amounts: Rainfall totals of 3-5 inches with locally heavier totals as high as 7 inches are possible through Sunday. Localized areas of flooding resulting in travel delays are possible. Storm Surge: No significant tidal surge is forecast. Note: As we predict the maximum sustained wind (and gusts) associated with a tropical cyclone, our site forecast below represents the maximum likely observed winds in any particular hour during the passage of the tropical cyclone. On average, the observed winds at your location(s) will be lower than the sustained wind and gusts contained in the forecast. Coastal Flood Warning
This is Jeff Lindner's take on Hannah Hurricane Warning is issued from Baffin Bay to Mesquite Bay TX Storm surge warning is issued from Baffin Bay to Sargent TX including Corpus Christi Bay, San Antonio Bay, Copano Bay, and Matagorda Bay. Flash Flood watch has been issued for: Galveston, Brazoria, Matagorda, Jackson, Wharton, and Fort Bend Counties Discussion: The overall organization of Hanna continues to improve with a large mass of deep convective thunderstorms over the southern half of the system and recently some of these storms have begun to wrap around the northern and even western side of the circulation. It appears weak northerly mid level shear and dry air to the west north west of Hanna is slowly getting eroded out of the central portions and that an inner core may be in the formative stages. Will have to see if sustained convection can continue to wrap and develop in an around the center over the next several hours. Rainbands associated with the circulation of Hanna are moving into the LA and upper TX coasts this afternoon and these bands will continue to sweep westward and increase in coverage into tonight and Saturday, more frequent toward Matagorda Bay. Hanna has turned to the west and is moving westward at 10mph and this motion is expected to continue through landfall. Track: As mentioned, Hanna has made the turn toward the west and this motion is expected to continue through landfall on the TX coast. There has been no change to the forecast track reasoning and Hanna should move inland over the south and mid TX coast on Saturday afternoon. Intensity: Given the organization of the tropical storm and the formation of an inner core structure along with increasingly favorable conditions on approach to the TX coast, Hanna is now forecast to become a hurricane just before landfall. The upper level pattern is very favorable for intensification with a defined outflow channel aloft and this combined with very warm water temperatures supports intensification. Intensity trends will need to be monitored closely this evening and overnight and residents in the Hurricane warning area should be fully prepared for hurricane conditions on Saturday. SE TX Impacts: Rainfall: Heaviest rains are still expected along and SE of US 59/I-10 over the next 48 hours due to feeder bands moving inland on the northern side of the circulation. Rainfall amounts will average 2-4 inches, especially across the Matagorda Bay region NE to Galveston Bay, with isolated higher amounts. Any location where feeder bands sustain any sort of training for a period of time will result in that location receiving the higher rainfall amounts. Inland, away from the coast, rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be most likely. Long fetch of tropical moisture will continue to impact the area on the eastern side of Hanna well into Sunday and even next week and this will continue to chances of heavy rainfall. Rainfall amounts of 5-15 inches will be likely across portions of south Texas over the weekend. Winds: Winds will build today over the upper Texas coast waters as Hanna track across our outer waters and towards the lower/middle coast. Looking at 30-50kts well offshore this afternoon into early Saturday with 20-30kts near the coast with high gusts in rain bands. Near the coast winds of 25-35mph will be common into Galveston Bay and along the coastal counties with generally less than 30mph inland. Winds of 65-75mph will be likely from Baffin Bay to Corpus Christi Bay late tonight into Saturday and some of the feeder bands that rotate into the Matagorda Bay region could have gusts of 40-55mph late tonight and on Saturday. Power outages will be possible from Port O Connor southward along the TX coast. Tides/Seas: Wave heights near the center of Hanna will build today as the system intensifies reach 10-15 ft tonight. Some of this wave action will move toward the upper TX coast with seas building today into the 4-6 foot range and 6-9 foot range tonight into Saturday. Large swells generated by the system will result in wave run-up and elevated tides of 1-3 feet starting later today and lasting into much of Saturday along the upper and mid TX coast. Minor coastal flooding will be possible at times of high tides in the typical sensitive areas along the coast. Tornadoes: Isolated tornadoes will be possible across the mid and upper TX coastal areas from late this afternoon into Sunday as favorable low level shear will be in place.
Dude my lawn is angry right now. I feel like the last 10 times I’ve thought it was going to rain I just sit here and watch the percentages dwindle down to nothing by the hour. Yesterday my app was telling me 70% today, got nada.
Tropical Storm Hanna Intermediate Advisory 13a Issued: 06:00 PM CDT Friday July 24, 2020 Current Location: 27.3N, 94.4W Geographic Reference: 185 Miles East of Corpus Christi, Texas Movement: West at 12 mph Max Winds: 50 mph gusting to 70 mph Organizational Trend: Slowly Strengthening Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 998 mb Our Forecast Satellite imagery over the past several hours indicates that Hanna is steadily becoming better organized. Squalls have increased both northeast and northwest of the center. In addition, observations around the storm indicate that tropical storm-force winds now extend northwest and north of the center. We are not planning to make any adjustments in the track on our next advisory, but as we mentioned in the video, the chances of Hanna reaching hurricane strength prior to landfall are increasing. Hanna is predicted to track inland south of Corpus Christi tomorrow afternoon, but any wobble northward could bring hurricane-force winds to the Corpus Christi area. Once inland, Hanna will quickly weaken, but its slow movement through south Texas will lead to very heavy rainfall amounts along and south of its path.
That storm really blew up -- we're lucky it didn't have more time to develop... this seems to be happening a lot recently.
So hot & sunny with a passing shower... Time to start hyping the next one - Gonzo or Gonzalo or Gonzales Evacuate Katy!
