Update: still heading for TX/LA border. Winds up to 105 mph sustained already. Edit: New euro out even more east. This time into Louisiana. Stronger as well. Cat 4 is possible on this thing. Edit 2: 110 max sustained now and NHC is calling for a cat 4. ...LAURA EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN TO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... ...FORECAST TO PRODUCE A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA LATER TODAY... 4:00 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 Location: 26.1°N 90.7°W Moving: NW at 15 mph Min pressure: 973 mb Max sustained: 110 mph
So can we officially relax? All those troll models yesterday adamant that it was heading further west had me concerned, but it seems like 9/10 of these things veer off towards TX/LA border. It's like there is a magnet there or something.
We are almost in the clear. Still the east side of town is going to get some strong winds even if it landfalls on the LA border. This thing is pretty huge now and deepening rapidly. This has to be scary for Lake Charles. It's going to be devastating wherever it landfalls.
Yikes storm surge up to 30 miles inland. Lake Charles is 30 miles inland. Are they expecting storm surge into Lake Charles?!
It's turned into a massive buzzsaw. Huge image loop someone posted that I have to post here. For bonus points spot Marco's remnant swirl passing through south of Galveston at the beginning of this loop.
Hurricane Laura Advisory 28 Valid: 09:00 AM CDT Wednesday August 26, 2020 Current Location: 26.8N, 91.7W Geographic Reference: 240 miles SE of the TX/LA Border Movement: North-northwest at 14 mph Max Winds: 115 mph gusting to 145 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 22 out of a possible 50 points (11 size, 11 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 26 out of a possible 50 points (11 size, 15 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 150 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 150 miles Organizational Trend: Strengthening Rapidly Forecast Confidence: Average Estimated Central Pressure: 958 mb Key Points 1. We are now predicting Laura to be a Category 4 hurricane at landfall with max sustained winds of 140 mph. 2. While Laura is forecast to be stronger than Ike and Rita at landfall, it is expected to be smaller. Our Forecast A reconnaissance plane investigating Laura this morning is finding that Laura's central pressure is falling rather rapidly. Max sustained winds appear to be at least 115 mph, making Lara a Category 3 hurricane. Landfall is predicted to occur in western Cameron Parish, southwest of Lake Charles around 1 AM tomorrow. Max sustained winds at landfall are predicted to be 140 mph, though Laura could be a little stronger or weaker than that. Once Laura reaches the coast, it will accelerate northward along the Texas/Louisiana border while slowly weakening. This will mean a shorter duration of Laura's strongest winds along its path on Thursday. However, since Laura may be strengthening at landfall, it will weaken more slowly inland. This could allow tropical storm-force sustained winds to reach as far north as Arkansas, and hurricane-force winds to reach nearly to Shreveport. Laura will likely transition to an extratropical storm system over western Tennessee on Friday evening. This low will likely still be producing strong squalls with wind gusts to tropical storm strength at that time, though sustained winds should be below trop ical storm strength. At 140 mph, Laura is forecast to be stronger than Hurricanes Ike and Rita, both of which devastated this area. While Laura has expanded a little in terms of size, it remains much smaller than Ike and Rita. This is why we are expecting the tidal surge to peak at around 14-17 feet into Cameron Parish, LA instead of the 20 feet or more that occurred with Ike and Rita. Inland flooding is also a possibility from Laura. Some areas could see more than 15 inches of rain. Expected Impacts on Land Northern Gulf Coast: Severe wind and tidal surge damage is expected near where the eye makes landfall. Expect extended power outages within 40 miles either side of the track. Outside of the eyewall, widespread power outages will be possible, along with major coastal flooding. Widespread street flooding could also occur. Expected Impacts Offshore Gulf of Mexico: Squalls and very rough conditions prevail off the middle Louisiana coast at present. These heavy squalls should stay north and east of the blocks off the lower Texas coast, such as Alaminos Canyon, and southwest and west of the blocks off the southeast Louisiana coast, such as Mississippi Canyon. Conditions offshore will be improving quickly on Thursday morning as Laura moves well inland. Squalls could reach the blocks along the upper Texas and central Louisiana coast on Wednesday morning. Improving conditions are expected during the day on Thursday as Laura moves well inland and weakens. Seas could approach 40 feet near the center.
Anytime a storms enters the gulf north of the Yucatan it pretty much seems like a guarantee that Louisiana hurricane magnet will drag it east.
Funny/conflicting info from my day job: Management all rallying the troops to work remotely. Troops all cancelling meetings.
Glad it looks like Houston is being spared but this storm is very serious. I heard this could be the most powerful storm to make US landfall in 15 years.
The storm looks really scary. I'm relieved we were spared, but God, Lake Charles and Orange / Beaumont, those areas.....you have to feel for those people. You know a place is about to be trashed when Jim Cantore is stationed there, looking all swole 'cause he hit the hotel weight room before going in front of the cameras.
I feel awful for my in-laws, who live in Jefferson County near Beaumont. We rode out Harvey with them, and their house was a wreck for a year, and it took a boat rescue to get us all out of there. Now Laura looks like she's about to inflict her own brand of destruction on it. They just moved there in 2016 from Nebraska. I won't be surprised if they say screw it and move back after this.
