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2020 Hurricane Season

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by KingCheetah, May 18, 2020.

  1. snowconeman22

    snowconeman22 Member

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    Usually a major storm passing through like that WILL get you some nice weather for 2-3 days at least . But if you stock up on gas before and your car don’t flood you can always try to get someplace else after a week
     
  2. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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    A big cold front moved into Houston within 12 hours of Ike passing. It was in the low 60s at night.
     
    conquistador#11 likes this.
  3. Surfguy

    Surfguy Contributing Member

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    We better get some f-ing rain up here in North Texas out of this. It wouldn't surprise me if we didn't get a drop, however.
     
  4. KingCheetah

    KingCheetah Contributing Member

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    For a day.
     
  5. marks0223

    marks0223 2017 and 2022 World Series Champions
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  6. LonghornFan

    LonghornFan Contributing Member

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    12Z UKMET now in line with NHC 958 mb at landfall.

    [​IMG]
     
  7. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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  8. Xenon

    Xenon Contributing Member

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    Euro has also gone east to la/tx border. Looks like we can breathe a little easier for now as there appears to be consensus in the models.

    Edit: also need to add that this does not mean the threat is over. If the ridge holds for longer than expected then tracks will shift west, but for now things are trending in a positive direction for us in Houston.
     
    #208 Xenon, Aug 24, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2020
    Joe Joe likes this.
  9. Xerobull

    Xerobull You son of a b!tch! I'm in!

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    [​IMG]
     
  10. LonghornFan

    LonghornFan Contributing Member

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    I'm not breathing any easier until the 24 hour model is out. Too many variables. Very 2020.
     
  11. ima_drummer2k

    ima_drummer2k Contributing Member

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    Hoping for another Rita and not another Ike.

    Don't these things usually shift a little east right before landfall? I know that's what Rita did.
     
  12. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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    Going through these every year or so, it usually seems like they tend to jog East right before landfall on the regular, but Ike didn't.

    I went and looked it up. Ike's 48 hour model runs were pretty much spot on. It basically followed the mid-black line perfectly for 48 hours.
     
  13. marks0223

    marks0223 2017 and 2022 World Series Champions
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    Windshield wiper models are in full effect today...east, west, east, west...
     
    Amiga likes this.
  14. cmoak1982

    cmoak1982 Member
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    Goddammit lol, make up your mind Laura
     
    conquistador#11 likes this.
  15. Supermac34

    Supermac34 President, Von Wafer Fan Club

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    Go to Space City weather. Basically Eric Berger is feeling better since the models they actually look at have it going to the Texas/Louisiana border and a big consensus is forming there.

    Edit: His name is Eric, not Bob...like the animated show.
     
    #215 Supermac34, Aug 24, 2020
    Last edited: Aug 24, 2020
  16. Pole

    Pole Houston Rockets--Tilman Fertitta's latest mess.

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    I don't know where this guy found this, but the 12z run of the ECMWF goes right up the Texas/Louisiana border. That looks to be a photoshop of an earlier map........back when Laura was south of the middle of cuba.
     
  17. LonghornFan

    LonghornFan Contributing Member

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    I love Bob's postings and YouTube also, but I feel he's jumping the gun here.
     
  18. LonghornFan

    LonghornFan Contributing Member

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    He's had a hard on for a Houston landfall for days. Those are EPS ensembles he's posting. He's basically pulling every ensemble or every track together making a guess, a bunch of silly math. Google "Monte Carlo Methods."
     
  19. BigM

    BigM Contributing Member

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    He’s still got his odds at 30% for a massive hurricane nailing Houston so he’s not so much jumping the gun as cautiously more optimistic than this morning.
     
  20. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    ECMWF has their main global forecast model which shows that Laura goes right up the Texas/Louisiana border. ECMWF also has an ensemble forecast model system that does a sensitivity analysis of a tropical storm that yields spaghetti plots. From ECMWF's website, here is their tropical storm strike probabilities based on their spaghetti plots. I've not noticed the Tropical Storm Strike Probability on ECMWF's website differ from their global model before, but the two currently don't match. This suggests that the spaghetti plots he's showing are legit, and that the sensitivity analysis shows that if the ECMWF's global model is wrong, it will likely be to the west.
    Capture.JPG

    P.S. This is only a theory based based on the two main outputs from ECMWF not agreeing...for which I've not noticed before.
     

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