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2020 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Dec 15, 2019.

  1. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Mar 12, 2012
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    Astros have 4 prospects on this list:

    62. Urquidy
    72. Abreu
    84. Whitley
    89. Conine

    Conine is the big surprise. He made it to AA in his first full pro season and put up great numbers along the way. There’s nothing about his pedigree that would indicate he will be a good major leaguer, but with those numbers he is one to watch in AA this season. He could be the kind of college pitcher who is never seen on top prospect lists because he doesn’t impress scouts and moves quickly thru the minors, but ends up being a long time MoR SP.
    Screaming Fist and No Worries like this.
  2. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Mar 12, 2012
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    Fangraphs updated their international signee rankings, and Pedro Leon is 6th with a FV of 40+. That 40+ value would place him well outside the Top 100, and have him in the 8-15 range of Houston’s org list. That’s surprising and disappointing, but hopefully he will be placed in a high level and perform well, and his grade will be quickly raised.
  3. Nook

    Nook Member

    Jun 27, 2008
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    Their rankings really mean nothing at this point because of how little information they have.

    They dock him for his 5'9" frame.

    The Astros are the only team that had a complete workout with him. They had him use equipment that provided all types of measures and they had a great deal of sophisticated video measures. Less that 48 hours after the workout and reviewing the information, the Astros had reached an agreement to pay him the highest bonus in the class at the time.

    He may never be special (I do not know) but the fact that only one team had a private workout, and immediately after that workout, that team signed the player to the largest bonus tells me something. Especially an organization that has a good track record.

    The only criticism I have heard from anyone in baseball is that there are some questions about his ability to hit off speed stuff......... he does literally every thing else well. He has an extremely strong arm, he is a very good fielder, he runs very well, he is a very good athlete and he has very strong wrists that produce carry on balls that would normally be routine outs. There is also a question about whether his size is even a negative if he can generate so much power, then his size means a smaller strike zone.
  4. prospecthugger

    Mar 25, 2018
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    I would guess he spends the entire year in the DSL.
  5. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Mar 12, 2012
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    Why would you guess that? He’s 22.
  6. The Beard

    The Beard Contributing Member

    Oct 31, 2012
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    Na, too old for that
  7. prospecthugger

    Mar 25, 2018
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    Because I couldn't find any examples of a cuban player signing a large bonus minor league deal in July and playing stateside later that season. Yolbert Sanchez was pretty much in the same situation and didn't leave the DSL. I suspect that the tax avoided on the signing bonus means more to the team and player than the 250 ABs he might get playing real games for the first time in a while.
    Snake Diggit likes this.
  8. awc713

    awc713 Member

    Apr 23, 2012
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    Excited to see some young bucks get reps in ST. I’m cautiously optimistic that our farm is deep enough to survive the Greinke trade + loss of picks. Just need a few middle tier guys to improve and surprise. We really need to hit on Alvarez/Tucker/Whitley...but I’m excited to see Nova and a few other guys this spring. Any posters want to shed some optimistic light for our farm? Anything is better than the 2017 thread at this point.
  9. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Mar 12, 2012
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    As April gets closer I’m getting more and more excited about the large group of high ceiling position players in the lower levels: Korey Lee, Nathan Perry, Grae Kessinger, Luis Santana, Nova, Joe Perez, Colin Barber, Jordan Brewer. And you can add Pedro Leon to that list in July. Each of those guys has a chance to be an everyday player and several of them have a chance to be star level players. Quad Cities lineup is going to be extremely deep and I’m hoping we see 3-4 of those guys make a big jump and become the type of prospects that can either become part of the next core group or used as centerpieces of significant trades. The upper levels are pretty barren when it comes to position players, aside from Jeremy Pena (Pena is the main young position player I will he watching in big league spring training to see how overmatched he is). But Fayetteville and especially QC should be relatively stacked.

    The other thing I’m excited about is the pitching at the upper levels. There are easily 20 guys with MLB futures who will be assigned between RR and CC. Many of them will throw in big league spring training so it’ll be great to see where they stand. The number of guys throwing 96+ is pretty insane and even tho it hasn’t worked out the last couple of years, I’m still hopeful we will see a few guys come up and establish themselves as long term pitchers on the big league staff. Whitley, Abreu, and Javier are guys getting talked about, but lesser prospects like Taylor, Paredes, Rodriguez, Conine, Garcia, Torres, and Dubin all have excellent stuff and high ceilings. And Cionel Perez is a forgotten arm I think could surprise.

    This farm lacks the top tier talent it did when it was ranked among the top 5 in the league from 2013-2017, but the depth is still really really good, and the total talent pool is better than it was anytime in the decade prior to Luhnow’s arrival. And if you factor in age instead of prospect status, the youth in this organization is still amazing (Correa, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez, Straw, and Osuna all have yet to fully enter the traditional prime age).

    Leon, Toro, Pena, Nova, and Lee is a fine fivesome of position player talent; I’d place each of those guys among the top 300 prospects in the league. And Id say the same thing on the pitching side with the foursome of Whitley, Urquidy, Abreu, and Javier.
    awc713, No Worries and Nook like this.
  10. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
    Supporting Member

    May 3, 1999
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    From this post, I'm most interested in Whitley, Urquidy, Javier, Abreu, Lee, Toro, and Kessinger. Whitley, Urquidy, Javier, and Abreu as this year they all could help MLB team or show that maybe they won't help much at all. Lee is probably the top position prospect outside Toro who I think will be fine. Kessinger needs a swing change. If he starts hitting for power he will fly up the ranks. If he doesn't, he'll get more Fontana comps.
    Snake Diggit likes this.
  11. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Mar 12, 2012
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    2 guys I didn’t mention because I personally am not high on them, but who bear watching this spring are Taylor Jones and JJ Matijevic. Jones being added to the 40 man roster was eye opening, since it means obviously Luhnow thinks he has a major league future. And any 1B protected from the Rule 5 means the front office thinks the bat can be special. That Jones was protected over someone like Jonathan Arauz, who most people had ranked as one of the top 20 prospects in the system, says something. Like I said, I’m not high on him, but there’s evidence that I am way wrong.

    Matijevic has the pedigree and exit velocity to also potentially be an impact bat, and there’s reason to believe his middling numbers over the last 2 seasons are not representative of his talent level. I am typically very skeptical of prospects who strike out a lot and have defensive limitations, but I still think Matijevic is worth seeing how he fares when/if he gets at bats against big league pitchers this spring.
  12. prospecthugger

    Mar 25, 2018
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    BA's top 30 is now on their site. Most notably they have Blair Henley at 22, Austin Hansen at 27, and Chandler Taylor at 30. Henley apparently gained a bit of velocity by the end of the season, Hansen is up to 98 with 2 potential above average breaking balls, and Taylor is ++ power, + arm, average speed with a huge question about the hit tool. They also had Jose Rivera throwing 97-102 which is harder than other outlets have reported, I think.

    I continue to be excited about the pitching in this system, but it would be really nice to see some of that materialize at the major league level.
    Screaming Fist and Snake Diggit like this.
  13. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
    Supporting Member

    May 3, 1999
    Likes Received:
    With 26th man added to active roster, I can see the potential for defensive liabilities getting a better chance of hanging around. That spot will be interesting to see how it turns out across the league. Though as long as Reddick is on the roster, I think Astros options are limited. Jones is a guy who needs to learn to get loft on the ball.
  14. Screaming Fist

    Jul 1, 2018
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    Saw Henly pitch a few times when he was at UT and he can really spin it. Glad to see a Longhorn having some success in the Astros system.
  15. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Mar 12, 2012
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    I spent some time evaluating the position players in the system using 4 very basic criteria (strikeouts, power, pedigree, defensive ability) which evolved from observing what have seemed to me over 10 years to be the leading indicators of prospect success. In the end prospects fell into 10 groups:

    Keep in mind these are not grades or rankings, but groupings based on filtering for criteria. I have made notes wherever a prospect seems out of place in an attempt to highlight potential underrated/overrated guys.

    Tier 1: Checks all the boxes. Highly likely to be an everyday player and potentially a star level player:
    3B Abraham Toro
    RF Pedro Leon

    Tier 2: Checks all the boxes, but has limitations that likely prevent the player from being a star:
    IF Jack Mayfield
    C Nathan Perry: hits for power, doesn’t strike out too much, plays a premium defensive position, relatively high draft pick pedigree

    Tier 3: 1 major wart, but high upside and moderately high floor:
    SS Jeremy Pena
    IF Freudis Nova
    OF Colin Barber: hits for power, plus defender/athlete, big bonus draftee, doesn’t strikeout too much
    OF Jordan Brewer
    IF Grae Kessinger
    C Garrett Stubbs
    2B Luis Santana
    OF Ronnie Dawson: strikeout problem is his only wart; hits for power, plays a passable CF, 2rd pick

    Tier 4: 1 major wart and limited upside, but a moderately high floor (starting with this tier players are just listed in order of highest level they’ve reached):
    Tanielu: only lacking power
    Quintana: premium defensive position, hits for power, doesn’t strikeout too much
    Julks: only lacks power; plus athlete who doesn’t strikeout too much
    Manea: hits for power, doesn’t strikeout too much, plays catcher
    Papierski: catcher who doesn’t strikeout and was a bonus pool pick
    Taylor: Power, defense, pedigree, just strikes out way too much
    E Valdez
    C Stubbs
    J Perez
    J Ramirez
    J Alvarez
    Y Martinez

    Tier 5: 2 major warts, but high upside:

    Tier 6: 2 major warts, and floor/risk outweigh ceiling:
    De Goti
    A Sierra
    R Rodriguez
    M Sierra
    W Abreu
    A Lee
    N Rodriguez
    S Mendoza
    Y Ramirez
    C Gonzalez
    T Ramirez
    R Toro
    A Ortiz

    Tier 7: non-prospects with 1 interesting/redeeming quality who have reached the upper levels:
    De La Cruz

    Tier 8: non-prospects with 1 good quality who are in the lower levels:
    R Castro
    T Dawson
    G Castillo
    J Mendoza
    O Diaz

    Tier 9: seemingly no redeeming qualities but has somehow made it to the upper levels:

    Tier 10: no redeeming qualities, lower levels:
    A Castillo
    awc713 likes this.
  16. prospecthugger

    Mar 25, 2018
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    Kessinger being there seems like a good sign.
  17. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Mar 12, 2012
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    I have gotten all excited the last 2 springs about lower level players playing in big league games, but I’ve learned the lesson; it has almost no bearing on where they will be assigned. But obviously if a guy goes out and gets hits against big league caliber pitchers, that’s a good sign.
  18. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

    Feb 14, 2002
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    He needs to get good.
    Nook likes this.
  19. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

    Mar 12, 2012
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    Probably just a data entry error, but Marty Costes is listed as a SS on the big league roster for today’s game.
  20. J.R.

    J.R. SMH
    Supporting Member

    Jun 30, 2008
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    Welcome to this year’s ranking of the top 100 prospects in baseball. I’ve been compiling and writing such rankings for 13 years now, and those of you who’ve read them before will find the format here similar to those from the recent past. Today kicks off the prospect package with that top 100, and it will be followed by some notes on players who just missed the list, organization rankings, farm reports covering at least 20 prospects in each team’s system, and notes on prospects who might appear in the majors this year or who might be breakout prospects for the 2021 rankings.

    I see as many players as I can in person each year, but these lists are the product of conversations I’ve had both this offseason and over the course of the past 12 months with individual scouts and executives from all 30 teams. I speak at length to the latter sources about their own prospects, and to the former about prospects they’ve seen over the year, comparing notes when I’ve seen the players or simply asking questions when I haven’t. I also consider the players’ performances to date, and some advanced data available via Trackman, to try to get the most accurate evaluations possible — citing the data where appropriate or useful — and to further inform the rankings. It is not a science, let alone an exact one, but I hope you’ll find it informative.

    I tend to favor upside in prospects more than certainty, but there is value in both. A player who is all ceiling and no floor isn’t as valuable, in the trade market now or in considering his expected value in the long term, as one who has a somewhat lower ceiling but a much higher floor. I want players who might be stars, and after that I want players who might be above-average big leaguers — but I also try to keep in mind that many of these prospects won’t reach their ceilings, and to consider what other scenarios exist for their futures.

    I refer to grades throughout the prospect rankings on the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is major-league average, 80 is the highest possible score, and 20 is the lowest. I’ll also use similar language, referring to tools that are above (a grade of 55) or below average (45 or less), or referring to plus (60) or even plus-plus (70) or doubleplusungood (a grade of 1984). I try to discuss players’ tools, their frames, their level of athleticism and other physical attributes, as well as their skills, their aptitude, and other mental or intellectual attributes as well. This is comparable to how major-league teams evaluate players, although they will always have the advantage of access to more and better data than those of us on the outside can get. The least I can do for you is try to reflect how the industry thinks about players, and give you the most accurate possible picture of the prospects in these rankings through both the lens of my own evaluations and those of the people within the industry whom I most trust.

    To be eligible for these rankings, a player must still be eligible for the Rookie of the Year award in 2020, which means they may not have more than 130 at-bats, 50 innings pitched, or 45 days on an active roster prior to Sept. 1 in the major leagues heading into this season. Thus Houston outfielder Kyle Tucker is ineligible because he has 131 at-bats in the majors, one over the threshold. I also exclude players who have come here as free agents from Japan’s NPB or Korea’s KBO, because while they are rookies (and I would vote for them if I have a Rookie of the Year ballot), they are not prospects by my definition.

    Finally, please bear in mind that I hate your favorite team, and that is reflected in all of the rankings.

    1. Wander Franco, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
    2. Jo Adell, OF, Los Angeles Angels
    3. MacKenzie Gore, LHP, San Diego Padres
    4. Gavin Lux, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
    5. Cristian Pache, OF, Atlanta Braves
    6. Luis Robert, OF, Chicago White Sox
    7. Dustin May, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
    8. Jarred Kelenic, OF, Seattle Mariners
    9. Alex Kirilloff, OF, Minnesota Twins
    10. Adley Rutschman, C, Baltimore Orioles
    11. Nate Pearson, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
    12. Luis Patiño, RHP, San Diego Padres
    13. Daniel Lynch, LHP, Kansas City Royals
    14. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Houston Astros

    Whitley will pitch at 22 for all of 2020, yet it seems like there are already people within the industry questioning how good he’s going to be. Some of it is unsurprising given how bad his 2019 season was; he got to Triple A and bombed, probably with help from the Happy Fun Ball, giving up four or more runs in more than half of his outings — including relief outings designed to help him right the ship — and allowing nine homers in 24 1/3 innings for a 12.21 ERA. The ball wasn’t the only problem, as he was falling behind in counts too often in Triple A. So the Astros gave him a break, tried to work on his mechanics, and had him essentially rehab in the GCL and High A before he finished with a month in Double A (where he still walked too many guys) and six starts in the Arizona Fall League (where he finally had some success, with a 2.88 ERA and 9 walks in 25 innings). His stuff was as good as ever in October, 91-97 mph with a plus cutter and plus-plus changeup as well as two breaking balls that were more average, although on other days his curveball and slider have shown plus. It’s an absurd collection of pitches, but he has to repeat his delivery better so he can throw more consistent strikes, especially early in the count. His upside is unchanged — a No. 1 starter who can give you 200 innings — and we’ll see shortly if the mechanical tweaks he’s made this winter get his delivery to where it needs to be.

    15. Jazz Chisholm, SS, Miami Marlins
    16. Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox
    17. Ronny Mauricio, SS, New York Mets
    18. Brendan McKay, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
    19. Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners
    20. Casey Mize, RHP, Detroit Tigers
    21. A.J. Puk, LHP, Oakland Athletics
    22. Spencer Howard, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
    23. Dylan Carlson, OF, St. Louis Cardinals
    24. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers
    25. CJ Abrams, SS, San Diego Padres
    26. Jesús Luzardo, LHP, Oakland Athletics
    27. Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta Braves
    28. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, Chicago White Sox
    29. Daulton Varsho, C, Arizona Diamondbacks
    30. Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
    31. Royce Lewis, SS/OF, Minnesota Twins
    32. Matt Manning, RHP, Detroit Tigers
    33. Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
    34. Edward Cabrera, RHP, Miami Marlins
    35. Nolan Jones, 3B, Cleveland
    36. Sean Murphy, C, Oakland Athletics
    37. Leody Taveras, OF, Texas Rangers
    38. Alec Bohm, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
    39. Brandon Marsh, OF, Los Angeles Angels
    40. Brendan Rodgers, 2B/SS, Colorado Rockies
    41. Riley Greene, OF, Detroit Tigers
    42. Luis Campusano, C, San Diego Padres
    43. Taylor Trammell, OF, San Diego Padres
    44. Joey Bart, C, San Francisco Giants
    45. Kristian Robinson, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
    46. Ke’Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates
    47. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals
    48. Francisco Alvarez, C, New York Mets
    49. Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Miami Marlins
    50. DL Hall, LHP, Baltimore Orioles
    51. Clarke Schmidt, RHP, New York Yankees
    52. Heliot Ramos, OF, San Francisco Giants
    53. Vidal Brujan, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
    54. Matthew Liberatore, LHP, St. Louis Cardinals
    55. Brennen Davis, OF, Chicago Cubs
    56. Josh Lowe, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
    57. Alek Thomas, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
    58. Marco Luciano, SS, San Francisco Giants
    59. Logan Gilbert, RHP, Seattle Mariners
    60. Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
    61. Kyle Wright, RHP, Atlanta Braves
    62. Braxton Garrett, LHP, Miami Marlins
    63. Josiah Gray, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
    64. Xavier Edwards, 2B, Tampa Bay Rays
    65. Bryse Wilson, RHP, Atlanta Braves
    66. Shane Baz, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
    67. Deivi Garcia, RHP, New York Yankees
    68. JJ Bleday, OF, Miami Marlins
    69. Jordan Balazovic, RHP, Minnesota Twins
    70. Jeter Downs, 2B/SS, Boston Red Sox
    71. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
    72. Adrián Morejón, LHP, San Diego Padres
    73. Jordan Groshans, 3B/SS, Toronto Blue Jays
    74. Carter Kieboom, 2B/3B, Washington Nationals
    75. William Contreras, C, Atlanta Braves
    76. Alek Manoah, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
    77. Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
    78. Nick Lodolo, LHP, Cincinnati Reds
    79. Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
    80. Brailyn Marquez, LHP, Chicago Cubs
    81. Brice Turang, SS, Milwaukee Brewers
    82. Nolan Gorman, 3B, St. Louis Cardinals
    83. Jesus Sanchez, OF, Miami Marlins
    84. Travis Swaggerty, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
    85. Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Rangers
    86. Evan White, 1B, Seattle Mariners
    87. Hunter Bishop, OF, San Francisco Giants
    88. Ryan Rolison, LHP, Colorado Rockies
    89. Orelvis Martinez, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
    90. Triston Casas, 1B, Boston Red Sox
    91. Diego Cartaya, C, Los Angeles Dodgers
    92. Matthew Allan, RHP, New York Mets
    93. Jose Israel Garcia, SS, Cincinnati Reds
    94. Braden Shewmake, SS, Atlanta Braves
    95. Brett Baty, 3B, New York Mets
    96. Corbin Martin, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
    97. Ivan Herrera, C, St. Louis Cardinals
    98. Geraldo Perdomo, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
    99. Jasson Dominguez, OF, New York Yankees
    100. Quinn Priester, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates

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