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2020 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Dec 15, 2019.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Considering the Astros do more scouting using video, it is likely harder for the FanGraphs guys to develop relationships with Astros staff at minor league games. Also, I don't think FanGraphs prospect staff make it to Texas much so they would likely not see Astros guys much in AA or AAA except for some AAA away games. So, I'm guessing a lot of the information is based on what other teams think of Astros players.
     
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  2. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    While I never noticed the lack of minor league free agents, I have noticed the Astros promote non-star guys faster than other teams. The article used the word "artificially" to describe how the Astros promoted guys to upper levels. The Astros 2019 AA team struggled, but overall their AA and AAA teams usually are much better than their counterparts stacked with minor league free agents. There is a large number of back of the rotation/emergency starters/backup position/fringe starting position players that were former Astros farmhands littered around the league. I get that other teams don't promote like the Astros and it may mess with other teams' models (Also models available to the public like KATOH was[RIP]), but I'm not seeing what is artificial.
     
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  3. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    From the comments section of the Fangraphs article, here are the value totals of the farms they’ve evaluated so far:

    ARI $279.5M
    MIA $277.5
    MIN $251.0
    SFG $207.0
    HOU $161.0
    COL $142.5
    WSN $118.0
    BOS $82.0
     
  4. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    These are based on the dollar values obtained in https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-update-to-prospect-valuation/ and https://blogs.fangraphs.com/putting-a-dollar-value-on-prospects-outside-the-top-100/ which use $9M/WAR.

    One of the FanGraphs prospect guys describe their views of using one number for FV here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/valuing-prospects-the-pros-and-cons-of-a-single-number/.

    From the article: My own issue with FV is that it can hamstring the evaluator’s conviction about low-level prospects. Because risk and proximity to the majors have to factor into FV’s abstract composition for the system of measure to work, players at the lowest levels of the minor leagues are penalized for being there.

    This is my biggest issue with Fangraphs prospect analysis and prospect analysis in general. It isn't penalizing a prospect at a lower level because he has more risk. He has more risk and future value should account for this. Even though they acknowledge they take risk and proximity into account, they still over-value low level prospects which makes FV-to-WAR calculations undervalue teams like the Astros that have a lot of value close to the majors.
     
  5. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Someone asked Kiley McDaniel from Fangraphs about a Jairo Solis comp, he answered that if he came back full strength he could be “3 60s”. Assuming he means 3 grade 60 pitches, that would make him a better prospect than Whitley.
     
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  6. tellitlikeitis

    tellitlikeitis Canceled
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    thread created
     
    #46 tellitlikeitis, Jan 9, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2020
  7. mikol13

    mikol13 Protector of the Realm
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    Some good stuff in here...



    TOP PERFORMERS
    Cristian Javier
    Javier put together a phenomenal 2019 season. He has been on the rise the last couple years but made his way to AAA in 2019 and did it in dominating fashion. He started the year in High-A and posted a 0.94 ERA with 40 K in 28.2 innings. He was them promoted to AA and kept it rolling with a 2.04 ERA and 114 K in 74 innings. He finished the season making two starts in AAA and allowing 2 ER in 11 innings with 16 strikeouts. If all goes as planned, he should be making his big league debut in 2020.

    2019 Stats: 26 G, 1.71 ERA, 113.2 IP, 51 H, 22 ER, 59 BB, 170 K, 13.5 K/9

    Luis Garcia
    Garcia was signed by the Astros for just $20,000 back in 2017. He put together a breakout year in 2019 though. He started the year with Quad Cities and had a 2.93 ERA with 60 K in 43.0 innings. He was then promoted to High-A where he had a 3.02 ERA with 108 K in 65.2 innings (14.8 K/9). Fangraphs noted that Garcia has a mid 90s fastball and a plus slurve. He will be 23 years old for the 2020 season.

    2019 Stats: 24 G, 2.98 ERA, 108.2 IP, 66 H, 36 ER, 50 BB, 168 K, 13.9 K/9
     
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  8. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Really interesting note on the 2019-2020 international signing pool:

    For the 2019-20 international signing period, Houston had a pool of $5,398,300. When the period opened July 2, the team signed 13 players who, according to MLB.com, cost around $1.8 million. Thus, the pool still contains more than $3.5 million to be spent before the signing period concludes June 15.

    That’s a lot of money, and hopefully they’re able to use that to get 1-2 late blooming top tier intl guys.

    https://www.houstonchronicle.com/sp...in-draft-will-be-put-to-the-test-14978903.php
     
  9. prospecthugger

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    $1.8 million was Dauri Lorenzo's bonus by himself. If you add up the bonuses of the prospects BA has listed, their total outlay became $3.37 million, without counting Venezuelans like Santander. I thought I saw that Santander got $900k, and there was 3 more notable Venezuelans, so they might have a couple hundred thousand left, but it's definitely not $3.5 million.
     
  10. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Odd that the chronicle would be so far off.
     
  11. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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  12. sealclubber1016

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    I really loved what I saw from him last season, but his current situation really sucks for him. He's a guy ready to start his MLB career, instead he's stuck in no man's land hoping for an injury or trade.

    I wonder if they've considered giving him some time in the outfield to try and further expand his versatility. He looks athletic enough (although his scouting reports don't seem to match up with my eye test) and his arm is good enough to play either corner. It would allow us to expand our net for possible replacement bats next season if he could play 4 different spots with Yordan looking like a man mostly anchored to DH.
     
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  13. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    I actually think his situation is great. If no other moves are made, he will he competing with Straw and Stubbs for the 26th roster spot, but regardless if he opens the season in the majors, he has a really good chance to spend almost the entire season in the big leagues. He’s a great fit given his versatility, including the ability/experience to serve as a 3rd/emergency catcher. He can be eased in Offensively with favorable matchups, which should help him put up a nice slash line. Assuming he performs, he will be the overwhelming favorite to take over for Gurriel at 1B. And of course, if he is traded, the team he goes to will be expecting him to be an instant everyday major leaguer.
     
  14. Buck Turgidson

    Buck Turgidson Mineshaft Enthusiast

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    He's already said he's trying LF, so there's that.
     
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  15. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Forrest Whitley #25 on Baseball America’s top 100. Jeremy Pena and Jose Urquidy were on the “almost” list. I still contend that Pena, Lee, and Nova are fine prospects for any team’s Org Top 10, and each has a chance to be on most Top 100 lists by the end of the year. And Urquidy, Abreu, Javier, and Ivey are a great group of pitching prospects behind Whitley. This system just lacks 2-3 elite position player prospects, that’s the only thing keeping it from being firmly in the top 10 in the league; as it stands I think they’re in the 14-20 range.
     
  16. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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  17. J.R.

    J.R. Contributing Member

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    https://www.milb.com/corpus-christi...3-million-in-capital-improvements/c-312574662



    CORPUS CHRISTI - Sweeping changes are coming to Whataburger Field in 2020 thanks to a landmark agreement between the Hooks and the Corpus Christi City Council approved today that allocates $3 million for improvements to the 16-year-old ballpark.

    The funding allows the Hooks to move forward with proposed projects including new, extended ballpark safety netting, a state-of-the-art outfield LED video wall, corrosive I-beam and steel repairs, new wall padding, upgrades to player training and clubhouse areas, and enhancements and refurbishments of hospitality areas.

    Under this amended lease agreement, the city will appropriate $2 million from the city's Business and Job Development Fund to match a $1 million allocation by the Hooks deemed Type A Fund investments. The combined infusion of $3 million into Whataburger Field from the City of Corpus Christi and the Hooks will continue to drive economic growth benefiting local businesses and all patrons that visit the stadium annually for baseball, community events and fun.

    The current protective netting will be replaced with knot-less material - the same used in Houston's Minute Maid Park - that expands further down the left and right field lines, increasing fan safety and allowing for an improved viewing experience. Among the planned player development improvements is enclosing the batting cages and expanding the home weight room and clubhouse.

    The Hooks' current stadium lease with the City of Corpus Christi runs through 2035. Completed in 2005 at a cost of $25 million, the Houston Astros have invested more than $3.2 million in ballpark improvements over the last six years. Projects ranged from installing a Daktronics LED video display, which tripled the size of the original board, to redesigning and expanding the suite-level Cotton Club.
     
    #57 J.R., Jan 28, 2020
    Last edited: Jan 28, 2020
  18. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Pretty amazing the velocity in the minors. Here are the “tops” speeds for each pitcher on Fangraphs Astros Top 40 prospects list:

    Whitley 99
    Urquidy 97
    Abreu 97
    Javier 95
    Bielak 95
    Brown 97
    Solis 97
    Rivera 99
    Paredes 99
    Ivey 95
    Macuare 94
    Garcia 97
    Torres 99
    Sanabria 99
    Perez 98
    Ramirez 97
    Armenteros 92
    Rodriguez 94
    Taylor 96
    Dubin 97
    Solomon 95
    Lopez 95
    Conine 96
    JP Lopez 94
    Robaina 94
    Taveras 98
    Jimenez 95
    DeJuneas 97
    Blanco 96
    L Rodriguez 95
    De Paula 95
     
  19. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Urquidy not being in the top 50 is a joke... not to mention the top 100.
     
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  20. Nook

    Nook Member

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    Torres and Paredes both have been clocked at over 100 mph.

    In the case of Torres he likely can consistently hit triple numbers.

    There are some guys flirting with 98-99 that they think will add velocity this season with mechanical changes and growth. Solis in the guy most often mentioned.
     
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