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2020 Astros Minor League Thread

Discussion in 'Houston Astros' started by tellitlikeitis, Dec 15, 2019.

  1. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Since 2019 Preseason (a.k.a. Last ranking prior to Greinke Trade)....
    Notable Subtractions
    Beer
    JBB
    Martin
    Rojas (though he's sucked for Arizona)
    Alvarez
    Tucker
    Urquidy
    Javier
    Whitley's stock
    Toro
    Framber
    James
    Straw
    Paredes

    Notable Additions
    Lee
    Brown
    Santos
    Barber
    Brewer
    Kessinger

    Notable adds then subtracts
    Taylor
    Scrubb
    Raley
     
  2. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    A lot of the guys on your “subtractions” list were never very highly thought of as prospects. I did forget Alvarez hadn’t graduated yet, so he counts. So maybe 3-4 prospects difference instead of 2-3.

    I just looked at 2017. At the end of 2017, when Houston’s farm was still widely viewed as one of the 10 best in the league, here was their top 10:
    Tucker
    Whitley
    Bukauskas
    Alvarez
    Paulino
    C Perez
    H Perez
    Stubbs
    Davis
    Nova

    I tried matching up their current farm and came up with something like this:
    Whitley = Whitley (stock has dropped but he’s the same prospect)
    Nova = Nova
    Paulino = Abreu
    H Perez = Solis
    Stubbs = Lee
    Davis = Pena

    I think on balance those 6 match up pretty equally.

    That leaves:
    C Perez = Santos? Perez was a more advanced prospect, but was limited physically; Santos has a much higher ceiling. I’d say it’s close enough in terms of value.

    Tucker = Barber? No way Barber can be argued as currently as valuable as Tucker was when he was the #8 prospect in baseball. Barber is probably a better athlete than Tucker and has a better chance of sticking in CF with more defensive value, but for now he has nowhere near the offensive upside of Tucker.

    Alvarez = Leon? Keep in mind that in 2017 Alvarez was not even a Top 100 prospect. Leon is BA’s #1 intl prospect for this year. So I think overall 2020 Leon is worth roughly the same as 2017 Alvarez.

    Bukauskas = H Brown? Brown has a higher ceiling than Bukauskas, with higher velocity and spin as well as better physique and less injury history. Bukauskas came with more pedigree. Bukauskas in 2017 was mlbs #76 prospect and it’s really difficult to argue Brown can be ranked anywhere close to that high.

    From all that, my point is that if we assume massive breakouts from Hunter Brown and Colin Barber, Houston’s farm is roughly on par with what it was in 2017 when it was widely recognized as above average.
     
    #462 Snake Diggit, Nov 13, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2020
    raining threes and No Worries like this.
  3. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Rojas, Straw, Framber probably compare well with Brewer, Barber, and Kessinger in prospect ranking. Maybe Rojas is a little light as he went from unknown to bad major leaguer very quickly.

    Paredes compares well with Lee.

    That leaves 9 subtractions (not counting Whitley) rated at one time higher than the top addition's ranking.
     
  4. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Though you get a 3-4 Top 100 prospects that are solid with production instead of just flash...and that makes almost any farm look good.
     
    Snake Diggit likes this.
  5. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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  6. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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  7. Htown Legend

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    Nice to see barber getting some love. Very intriguing prospect.
     
    raining threes likes this.
  8. jim1961

    jim1961 Member

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  9. Snake Diggit

    Snake Diggit Member

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    Wouldn’t be surprised at all if Jose Alberto Rivera was picked in the Rule 5 draft. I will also be looking at which OF prospects other teams left unprotected. Probably not an ideal solution but if they find a CF prospect they like they would have Straw as backup and could always add a Cameron Maybin type as insurance.
     
  10. Joe Joe

    Joe Joe Go Stros!
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    Yep. Someone has to have a spot to stash him and use him as relief in low leverage. Though, I'm glad Astros kept Ivey. Thought something health or personal may have been wrong with him keeping him from instructs this year.
     

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