2019 Astros Minor League Thread

2019 World Series/2020 Opening Day Roster:

CF Springer
LF Brantley
3B Bregman
2B Altuve
DH Alvarez
SS Correa
RF Tucker
1B Gurriel/Reddick platoon
C Chirinos/Stubbs platoon
Bench: Diaz, Marisnick
Rotation: Verlander, Stroman, Peacock, McCullers, Whitley
Bullpen: Framber Valdez (Harris), Cionel Perez (McHugh), Devenski, Jose Urquidy (Rondon), James, Pressly, Osuna

 

You are 1 short for next year as we go to a 26 man roster. I’d plug in Straw.

 

Btw- who did you give up to get Stroman?

 

Stassi, Mayfield and Fisher

 

Uh....that was here because @DaDakota wanted Bagwell to learn to throw LH when his right shoulder wore out....

 

My take for next year and/or September on the offensive side, assuming 13 each for the 26 man roster:

CF Springer/Straw (if Buxton got MVP votes batting .253/.728 OPS w/ 29 SBs, surely Straw warrants regular play if he hits above that)
LF Brantley/Alvarez/Straw
RF Tucker/Straw
DH Alvarez/Brantley/Springer (Springer needs DH time to avoid injury, he likes it, and he seems to perform better - the big question IMO is where to bump Brantley/Alvarez when he does. This is crazy talk now, but Brantley would net a #3, even #2 starter.)
SS Correa
3B Bregman
2B Altuve
1B Gurriel/Beer
C Chirinos/Stubbs

Bench: Diaz, Straw (both playing a lot)

Sell high: I think Reddick is definitely traded, maybe even by July 31, as they reportedly tried during the off-season before Brantley even came on board. If Straw develops, they can get a decent return for Marisnick before losing him for nothing after next season. Obviously it's a cold business to talk about trading players who have given the team their all.

 

Martin, Bukauskas, Fisher

 

Not sure it this got posted yet, but it's a good read: Rojas, Bielak, Urquidy, good quotes etc....

https://www.statesman.com/sports/20190602/pipeline-gushes-talent-for-astros-express

 

The Astros aren't trading Reddick in the middle of the season when they are contending and he's productive.

 

I wasn’t here then. Others had similarly asinine bits on the internet I guess.

 

Both teams would win in that trade.

 

Oh, no, it started here.

 

Wrong thread

 

How would you rank the OF in terms of projected value 2019, projected value 2020, likelihood of being traded before, likelihood of being traded after the end of the year? I'm sure the FO is factoring in all four of those.

Projected value playoffs 2019, six on the playoff roster
Springer
Brantley
Straw
Alvarez (I rate him lower than Straw b/c he plays the same position as Brantley)
Marisnick
Reddick

Tucker (If Tucker is raking, no way they leave him off, someone above is not making it)
Fisher

Projected value 2020
Springer
Brantley
Straw
Alvarez
Tucker (Once Tucker starts going off, someone's being traded immediately, could happen sooner than later, but not before July 31)
Marisnick
Reddick
Fisher

Trade Likelihood by July 31, 2019
Fisher (I imagine this one is unanimous. Hopefully he rakes and makes us all feel at least a little respect.)
Reddick (ONLY if Straw and Alvarez show they belong on the playoff roster, while leaving the possibility for Tucker)
Marisnick (ONLY if Straw shows he can patrol CF in Jake's class, otherwise three spots lower)
Alvarez
Tucker
Brantley
Straw (As I stated earlier, if he hits, no way do they trade Buxton lite, where many rate Buxton (overrate IMO) as an MVP candidate w/o the hit tool.)
Springer

Trade Likelihood by 2020
Fisher
Reddick
Marisnick
Brantley (I would move Brantley up a couple spots simply b/c he and Alvarez play the same position, and Springer needs DH time. He'd net a quality pitcher, or restock the farm. The Astros can't keep everybody.)
Alvarez
Tucker
Straw
Springer

 

I don’t disagree with most of your points, but Brantley is damn near untouchable. Not bc limos wouldn’t likely trade his own mother if the deal made sense, but bc Bradley has essentially no trade value so he’s with way more to the Astros than he is to anyone else.
Marisnick also has next to no trade value and is worth more to the Astros than anyone else. Reddick has negative value according to Snake (I think he might have neutral value but who knows).
Value of the OF trade wise

Tucker
Yordan
Straw
Springer
Brantley
Fisher
Marisnick
Reddick

 

I think Fisher is the only one with a strong likelihood of being traded. Tucker or Alvarez are probably next since their value is so high; while incredibly unlikely, I could imagine Luhnow letting one of them go for the right starting pitcher. Reddick has the least value but I don’t see Luhnow doing a salary dump. More likely is they make room for everybody by having one of Alvarez, Brantley, or Reddick move to 1B to platoon with Gurriel. Straw will be in the minors until Marisnick reaches free agency or is traded. I could see Marisnick being traded this offseason if a contending team believes in him enough to offer a good prospect package, but again I feel that is very unlikely.

Player, value (factoring in control/salary), Odds of being traded by 7/31/20:

Fisher, 50, 75%
Marisnick, 45, 25%
Straw, 45, 25%
Alvarez, 55, 25%
Tucker, 55, 20%
Reddick, 30, 20%
Springer, 55, 9%
Brantley, 45, 1%

 

One nit- do you actually really think Springer has any real trade value next year with one year on his deal for 22 or 23 million (my guess as to his arbitration salary) going into next year. My guess is the absolute max of his package would be what we had offered for Bryce Harper- what was that offer again? The O’s got a whole lot of nothing for Manny M, right? Or did I misread the value of that package? I realize that there is no way Springer gets moved- I just mean this as a thought exercise. If the Astros were trading for him next year at the deadline, what would you expect the package to be?

 

The value I have for Springer is based on his current situation: 1.5 years of control over a guy playing like a borderline mvp. I think a player like that would be worth a really, really good prospect. But you’re right, this time next year Springer’s value is guaranteed to be less. Harper was rumored to be going to Nats for Bukauskas and Stubbs. If by some strange turn of events Springer is playing well and Houston traded him next deadline, I think he’d be worth something similar to that (a grade 50 and a grade 45 prospect).

 

So irritating that Nats ownership spiked the Harper deal. Would have been a win for both teams. Astros were a bat short with the mash unit and I’d imagine the Nats would much prefer Stubbs/JBB to what we they got last night in the draft for a shitty comp pick. Argggggg